Celtics have a tough decision looming on Guerschon Yabusele's future

LAS VEGAS -- With each passing year this decade, the Celtics are going to need to be more vigilant with salaries at the bottom of their depth chart. On the whole, it’s a tough balance for the front office to navigate. Ideally, the team needs young talent to develop and contribute on cheap rookie deals to balance out the expensive salaries on the top half of the roster.

On the flip side, it may not be worth it for the organization financially to keep players who aren’t making strong strides towards contributing as a rotation player, especially when the team may be better off having more experienced depth on veteran’s minimum contracts in those spots for improved depth. There was no better example of that need for trustworthy depth than this past season when the Celtics were down four key rotation players for parts of the postseason.

Starting as soon as this upcoming season, the Celtics will also be dealing with the luxury tax, which will put even more pressure on the team’s finances. Every dollar spent will cost Boston anywhere from $1.50 to $3.25 each in totality, depending on how far above the luxury tax threshold the team ends up.

“We're running a business and trying to win basketball games,” Danny Ainge said Wednesday. “It's my job to be fiscally responsible, but we will pay the tax. We plan on being a taxpayer for sure.”

In 2019-20, the team is poised to soar high into the luxury tax, with new contracts looming for Kyrie Irving, Terry Rozier and/or Marcus Smart, among several others next summer. Those hefty paydays will force the Celtics to think long and hard about their spending at the end of the roster. One name that could be in crosshairs? Second-year forward Guerschon Yabusele.

The Celtics have until an October 31st deadline to make a decision on Yabusele’s $3.1 million third-year team option for the 2019-20 season. One league source told BostonSportsJournal.com that it’s

far from a sure thing that Boston will exercise that option this fall.

Yabusele told BostonSportsJournal.com that the team has not given him any indication yet about the looming option and whether he felt any additional pressure because of it during his summer league performances.

“I don't really care,” Yabusele said when asked about the uncertainty down the road. “I just try to do my best every time I go into the gym. I love to be a part of the Boston Celtics and I'm here to give everything I got every time I step on the floor.”

How rookie contracts team options work 

When a first-round pick signs with a team, it's always a standard four-year deal with a salary based on your draft slot. The first two years of that contract are guaranteed, while the third and fourth year of those deals are team options. A team must make a decision on a player's team option in a rookie deal almost a full year ahead of the next season. For example, Yabusele's team option for 2019-20 will have to be picked up by the end of October 2018.

Generally, the vast majority of first-round picks get their rookie options picked up by the team, but that trend has started to shift in recent years in a tight free-agent market, particularly among teams facing salary and luxury tax issues. For instance, Warriors big man Kevon Looney had his fourth-year team option declined last fall despite being a regular contributor off the Warriors bench. He was due to make just over $2 million dollars, but that would have amounted to closer to $6 million for the Warriors due to luxury tax penalties. Other lottery names (Jahlil Okafor, Mario Hezonja) and low first round picks (Rashad Vaughn, Chris McCullough, Brice Johnson) from 2015 and 2016 draft classes have had their options declined. Former Celtic James Young also did not get his fourth-year option picked up in October 2016. Outside of Hezonja, all of these guys have failed to prove themselves as NBA rotation players.

How does Yabusele's situation compare?

Declining Yabusele’s option for 2018-19 wouldn’t preclude the Celtics from bringing him back beyond next season, but it's not a good sign for his long-term future in Boston. The Celtics would be able to offer him up to $3.1 million to retain him after the season per CBA rules, and that's a number that Yabusele may not be able to find on the open market anyway. The Warriors made that bet with Looney when they declined his option and he signed for a minimum deal this summer anyway. Yabusele could be facing a similar situation himself next summer.

The other alternative for Boston in the scenario is to move on from Yabusele via trade this summer or fall if they aren't going to pick up his option. Another rebuilding team might be willing to wait longer for Yabusele's potential without having to worry about luxury tax concerns. The Knicks were rumored to have interest at the trade deadline, but it's doubtful that Yabusele would have any meaningful value around the league. He certainly wouldn't if the C's declined his option.

Why summer league and training camp matter

The Celtics will be needing to make a decision on how they project Yabusele to develop almost a year in advance, which is why his performance in this year’s summer league is fairly crucial from an evaluation standpoint. So far, Yabusele has been solid at times, but does not look like a cut above the rest of the summer league talent around him. He’s averaging 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds over his first three games, with some smooth passing mixed in. There’s been a lot of fouling (averaging 7.5/36 minutes) and an iffy outside jumper (14 percent from 3). The flashes of potential are there, but the progress has been somewhat limited in his game.

The question the Celtics will need to answer in the coming months is whether Yabusele has shown enough development to make him worthy of an expensive added year of investment (due to luxury tax). It hasn’t been a great start for him at summer league on that front, but a strong finish and a standout training camp could help secure his spot in green for beyond next year. Otherwise, his future in Boston beyond 2018-19 will remain up in the air.