NEW YORK — By virtually every measure, the Red Sox and Yankees could not be more evenly matched.
In the standings, the teams are currently separated by mere percentage points. Since the first of May, the teams haven’t been separated by more than two games, and if the closeness of the division race continued right down to the final weekend of the season – when the rivals meet at Fenway in a three-game, season-ending series – it would surprise absolutely no one.
The same holds true in a host of statistical categories: the Yankees or Red Sox are first or second in virtually every significant offensive category in the American League, and they’re among the top teams in a number of pitching categories, too.
It seems a given that the teams are on a collision course to meet in the post-season for the first time since the epic ALCS showdown in 2004.
But beyond that, the future of the rivalry is less clear. The Red Sox stand to lose a number of top free agents over the next couple of years, led by starter Chris Sale, closer Craig Kimbrel and shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
Conversely, over the next two offseasons, most of the Yankees heading to free agency over the next two off-seasons are mostly complementary types (Neil Walker, Adam Warren, David Robertson), or aging (CC Sabathia). Only shortstop Didi Gregorius and, to a far lesser extent, Aaron Hicks represent potential tough losses.
The real advantage the Yankees have over the Red Sox in the near future is best reflected in the organizations’ respective minor league systems. While the Red Sox are ranked in the bottom third of all systems, the Yankees are ranked in the top five.
Both teams boast plenty of elite homegrown talent. The Red Sox have produced Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts, while the Yankees have Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and though he was originally Cubs’ property, Gleyber Torres.
The real difference, however, can be found with the pitching staffs and it’s here that the Yankees own the biggest edge.
While the Red Sox haven’t produced a starting pitcher who has posted double-figures in wins since Clay Buchholz, the Yankees show far more promise.
The Sox have had a number of pitching prospects wash out (Henry Owens) while others have seemingly reached a ceiling as a swingman (Brian Johnson). Perhaps Jared Beeks will change that trajectory next year, but even as he dominates at Triple-A, most regard him, at best, as a back-end starter in the big leagues.
By contrast, the Yankees are pitching-heavy in the minors. One list of their prospects, compiled by MLB Pipeline, has 22 of their top 30 prospects as pitchers. That list includes Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, Luis Medina and Domingo Acevedo. Already, the Yanks are getting a big contribution from Jonathan Loaisiga, who has stepped into the rotation and posted a 1.93 in three starts. Loaisiga is in the rotation thanks in part to a season-ending injury to Jordan Montgomery, a 2014 draft pick who has already made 35 big league starts but is lost until next year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
(It goes without saying that not all of the highly-touted young pitchers will evolve into top starters on the major league level. But even failing that, the sheer volume of impressive arms gives the Yankees additional trade pieces with which they can address other needs).
While the Yankees can sift through a handful of impressive arms at the top end of their system, the Red Sox may soon be forced to replenish their rotation in the most expensive and inefficient way possible. Should they extend Chris Sale past 2019, they will almost certainly have a rotation featuring two 30-something lefty starters each commanding in excess of $30 million annually.
Perhaps by then, Jason Groome will recover from Tommy John surgery or Tanner Houck will achieve better command and consistency and be ready to contribute in the big leagues.
But the Red Sox poor track record of developing their own arms, and the relative lack of high-end prospects, paints a somewhat bleak picture for the Sox in 2020 and beyond.
__________________
_________________