Analysis: Eric Decker is not just a vet WR looking for one last Hail Mary with Patriots

Offensive skill position guys who are free agents say it all the time.

I’d be a great fit in New England. I could provide the Patriots with a dynamic new presence to their offense. I’d be the final piece of another championship puzzle.

Truth is, you can’t blame an offensive free-agent veteran who might not have a ton of options left to look toward the Patriots. They see what Tom Brady can do, and they believe the magic can work for them as well.

That’s why it was no surprise to hear veteran receiver Eric Decker make his pitch on Sirius XM Radio Wednesday. On the surface, the 31-year-old — who has played for the Broncos, Jets and Titans over the course of an eight-year career in the NFL — sounded like a lot of veteran free agents who are still on the market at this time of year. Please sign me.

(UPDATED, Thursday, Aug. 2 at 12:40 p.m.: The Patriots have reportedly agreed to a one-year deal for Decker.)

But once you get beyond the surface, there’s more to it than another case of a thirtysomething veteran wishing on a star for a shot with New England. Decker has a history with Josh McDaniels -- he was drafted by McDaniels in Denver in 2010. The Patriots are going to be without Julian Edelman (theoretically) for the first four games. Decker has the sort of skill set that might appeal to New England — he has a history of versatility, having played in the slot as well as outside, as late as last season. And I can’t imagine he’d cost New England much at all.

Decker has put up pretty impressive numbers over the course of his career — 439 career catches for 5,816 yards and 53 touchdowns. For some perspective, he’s been in the league one year less than Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola (he was drafted by Denver in 2010) but has more catches than either one of them.

But we’re interested in more than just the pedestrian totals. For some background on Decker, we went to Tom Gower, who has covered the Titans for the last several years for several outlets, including Football Outsiders. He said Decker’s versatility is one of his greatest traits.


“One of the things that made him really important in Tennessee last year was his versatility,” Gower wrote in an e-mail to Bostonsportsjournal.com on Thursday. “Both starting receivers — the X, Corey Davis and, Z, Rishard Matthews — missed multiple games, and he was the fill-in starter for both of them, in addition to playing a big slot role in 11 personnel.

“The Sports Info Solutions charting has 55 of Decker’s targets coming from the slot, 27 out wide. Their definition of ‘slot’ would include both traditional ‘slot’ in three wide receiver sets and plenty of Z receiver snaps in (Mike) Mularkey's offense, where he spent plenty of time condensed to the formation and played a role in the run game.”

So even though the 6-foot-3, 206-pounder Decker still has the chops to be an Amendola-like option for the Patriots, there’s just one issue, at least when viewed through a New England prism. Even without Edelman on the roster for the first four games (at least theoretically), the Patriots have a bevy of slot-capable receivers. That group includes (but is not limited to) Jordan Matthews and Braxton Berrios, two players who have enjoyed great success at the position the last few years. (In 2014 and 2015 with the Eagles, more than 90 percent of Matthews’ targets came out of the slot — in those two years, he had a combined 152 catches for 1,869 yards and 16 touchdowns. And last year with the University of Miami, Pro Football Focus had Berrios with 485 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in the slot last year, tied for second-most among FBS wide receivers.) That doesn’t even begin to take into account some other slot possibilities like running back James White.

But all that being said, Decker’s positional versatility, background with McDaniels, and the fact that he’s likely to be cost-effective (even at this stage of his career) makes him an intriguing possibility for New England. In 2017, he was on the field for 71 percent of all offensive snaps, second among all Tennessee wide receivers to Matthews (73 percent). He worked on the outside and in the slot, and finished with 54 catches on 83 targets for 563 yards and one touchdown. He doesn’t get tremendous separation but is smart enough to exploit good matchups, like here with the Colts when he races through zone coverage and has a wide-open reception.



Here are a few more of his catches from 2017, both in the slot and on the outside. Again, not a lot of speed — his YAC totals have steadily declined since 2013, going from 404 yards to 134 last season, although part of that could also be the result of going from a veteran in Peyton Manning to a youngster in Marcus Mariota. While he’s not fast, he’s smart enough to know where the sticks are — 31 of his 54 catches went for first downs last year.





One thing that works in his favor is the fact that he appears to be a willing blocker, something the Patriots always value in their receivers. He’s not necessarily crushing guys, but he will stick his nose in and mix it up as needed.



Drops aren’t an overwhelming issue with him, but there are times where he appears to have issues with ball security. That catch rate of 54 catches on 83 targets is 65 percent, which isn’t great for a mid-range and intermediate pass-catcher. For some perspective, Amendola catch rate last year was 71 percent. Look, I’m not sure we’re going to see a receiver as dependable as Amendola was in his New England career, so we’re talking about an extraordinarily high bar here. And maybe it was because — even after he caught what turned out to be the game-winning TD pass against the Chiefs in the wild-card round last year — we can’t seem to get this out of our minds. (Our favorite moment here? Marcus Peters coming over to talk trash after the drop. Like you had something to do with it, Marcus.)



But there are occasions where he isn’t the most dependable receiver on the roster. That’s all I’m saying.



One more thing, and it’s something that’s always a factor when you consider a possible Patriots’ receiver — he does have some limited special teams value. He returned 22 kicks as a rookie for the Broncos in 2010 and had a 25.3 yards per return average. He’s only done it three other times since then, and he wouldn't have to do it here on a regular basis, provided Cordarrelle Patterson is around, but it’s there if needed. He also has 10 career punt returns and has a nice 16.8 average, as well as a return for touchdown in 2011. If we’re talking about having to choose between Matthews and Decker, it’s important to note Matthews doesn’t have special teams’ value at the NFL level.

In the end, it could come down to whether or not the Patriots feel secure enough in the ability of the likes of Matthews and Berrios, as well as how much they’re comfortable in leaning on White over the first four games of the season versus the appeal of a veteran like Decker. Could he provide an upgrade? Perhaps. But ultimately, his surprise solicitation for a job in New England should be viewed as more than just a Hail Mary from a veteran receiver looking for one final run at a championship ring. It'll be interesting to see if the Patriots see him the same way.