What path should the Celtics take to find a hidden gem at No. 27?

During Danny Ainge’s tenure with the Celtics, he has seen the best and worst of what the No. 27 overall pick has to offer. He hit a home run in the development department in his first draft (2003) by acquiring Kendrick Perkins with No. 27 via a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies. Nearly 10 years later (2011), Ainge traded down to No. 27 in the final stages of the Big Three era and came up empty with the JaJuan Johnson pick, a selection that became more painful with the knowledge that Jimmy Butler was available a couple spots later.

The good news for the Celtics about the No. 27 pick in recent years is that it has been a spot with far more hits than misses. In fact, all five players selected at No. 27 in the last five years have already developed into strong bench contributors (or far better) with their respective squads. Take a look at these names:


2017: Kyle Kuzma (Lakers)
2016: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)
2015: Larry Nance Jr. (Lakers/Cavs)
2014: Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings)
2013: Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

So what exactly is the common thread for hitting on this type of NBA talent late in the first round? A look at the depth of the 2018 draft class indicates the Celtics should feel good about their position on Thursday night.

The end of the first round is generally a section of a draft where a team can go one of two routes. A lot of upperclassmen end up here, (two-plus years of experience) and they have the proven track record in the college game but with limited upside. Sometimes, that’s due to age, size or athleticism, but there is always going to be a deterrent that keeps lottery teams away.

The other option that’s usually available in this part of the draft is the long-term or international prospect, filled with potential and plenty of question marks. These picks are riskier but can lead to bigger rewards, as was the case with bigs like Perkins and Gobert.

So what route is the better path for a contender like the Celtics in 2018? A review of draft picks in the 20s over the last 15 years indicate that the experienced college player is generally the more effective choice in this portion of the draft. Over 60 percent of the players that turned into rotation pieces for multiple seasons of their NBA careers (over 1,000 minutes of playing time per year) had two-plus years of college under their belt at the time of the draft.

The good news for Boston? The 2018 Draft class is chalk full of seasoned talent that is expected to last through the first round and potentially beyond it. Multiple league scouts have raved about the depth of the talent from the 20-35 range to BostonSportsJournal.com, indicating that there is not much separation from the players expected to go in those spots.

We’ll take a closer look at the particulars of the individual prospects in the next couple days at BSJ, but here’s a sampling of names that the Celtics may be able to choose from at No. 27 on Thursday night that can check off the experience category.

Scoring and defense on the wing

Keita Bates-Diop
6-foot-7
Ohio State (Senior)
Age: 22

Jacob Evans
6-foot-6
Cincinnati (Junior)
Age: 20

Chandler Hutchison
6-foot-7
Boise State (Senior)
Age: 21

Josh Okogie
6-foot-5
Georgia Tech (Sophomore)
Age: 19

Overview: The Celtics have gone wing-heavy with plenty of success in the past few drafts, so they will have the option at some seasoned pieces here with limited upside. Evans is reportedly being brought back for a second workout in Boston this week already and his stock is probably the highest out of this group despite his funky looking jumper. Evans and Okogie are built from a similar cloth. They will be role players at the next level, capable of hitting the open 3, handling switching between multiple positions and utilizing mismatches to their advantage. The growth potential is greater with Okogie due to his age, but Evans can be counted on to push for minutes right away. Bates-Diop will be able to jump between both forward positions (a potential replacement for Marcus Morris long-term) but he lacks the toughness to hang with true bigs down low. Hutchinson is a solid shooter and cutter but he really struggles on drives and among bigs in traffic.

Backcourt scoring punch

Names expected to be off the board, otherwise, they would be included here: Jerome Robinson (BC) and Kevin Huerter (Maryland).

Grayson Allen
6-foot-4
Duke (Junior)
Age: 22

Donte DiVincenzo
6-foot-4
Villanova (Sophomore)
Age: 21

Jalen Brunson
6-foot-2
Villanova (Junior)
Age: 21

Overview: Bench offense and spacing was problematic at points last season for Boston. All of these guys should help provide some more reliable scoring in the backcourt if given the opportunity for minutes in Brad Stevens' backcourt. Brunson is a potential Shane Larkin replacement as a third string/change-of-pace point guard if the team is worried Larkin will head elsewhere for more opportunity. DiVincenzo and Allen both come with size limitations and defensive question marks, but there is no denying their ability to score in a lot of different ways. I’m much higher on DiVincenzo within the C’s scheme but I like the ability for either of these guys to succeed as role contributors on the next level. They can shoot, pass and get to the rim. The question is whether they will defend well enough to stay on the floor.

Defense first backcourt prospects

Khyri Thomas
6-foot-3
Creighton (Junior)
Age: 22

De’Anthony Melton
6-foot-3
USC (Sophomore)
Age: 20

Overview: If the Celtics don’t think Marcus Smart is going to be a part of the team’s long-term future, it would not surprise me to see either of these guys on the radar. Thomas won defensive player of the year in the Big East for the past two seasons. He’s limited in size but is extremely quick and can handle wings in switches. His shooting is actually far better than Smart’s as well coming out of college but it the ball handling and shot creation that needs work. However, that’s something he wouldn’t be asked to do much off in Boston off the bat. He can defend and hit 3s, making him a nice potential fit immediately/potential replacement for Smart or Rozier.

Melton sat out the year at USC due to the FBI corruption probe, but he’s got the tools to be a strong defender on the NBA level already. He has a nose for the ball, pressure on the perimeter, and just knows the fundamentals very well. Strong passing vision and an iffy jump shot/finishing ability have brought on plenty of Smart comparisons already.