Celtics offseason primer: Will the roster see much movement?

The Celtics took a big step forward during the 2017-18 season, advancing within one game of the NBA Finals for the first time since the 2012 postseason. The improbable run through the postseason with a shorthanded roster gave the Celtics' front office plenty of new information to use as they map out their best path to contending in 2018 with the returns of Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving and Daniel Theis looming from their respective injuries

Despite the franchise’s progress, there are still a few tough decisions looming this offseason that will start to shape the team’s future. Eleven of the team’s 15 roster players are under contract already, but several of them won’t be around for much more than next season due to financial constraints. A couple key rotation pieces (Aron Baynes, Marcus Smart) will be hitting free agency this summer as well and there is also the prospect of some bigger names (Kawhi Leonard) that might be available on the open market as well.

With that in mind, let’s examine what Ainge and his staff will be working with over the next couple months before diving into the bigger decisions that loom.

Guaranteed contracts for the 2018-19 season

Gordon Hayward: $31.2 million
Al Horford: $28.9 million
Kyrie Irving: $20.1 million
Jayson Tatum: $6.7 million
Marcus Morris: $5.3 million
Jaylen Brown: $5.1 million
Terry Rozier: $3.1 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $2.7 million

Total guaranteed money: $107.1 million
NBA Salary Cap Projection: $101 million
Luxury Tax Projection: $123 million

BSJ Analysis: There are a lot of team-friendly deals here for the Celtics.

Hayward and Horford are in the midst of their max contracts but Irving is still underpaid for one more season before he’s due for a hefty raise in his next max deal (30 percent of the salary cap). Tatum and Brown will be some of the best bargain contracts in the league on their rookie deals and the same can be said for Rozier in the final year of his rookie pact.

Morris is a great value at $5.3 million but his name will likely be floated in trade possibilities due to the fact that his role is uncertain for next season with the return of Hayward looming. There might not be enough minutes to go around there to keep all the wings happy, especially if Smart is brought back.

Combine that with the fact that Morris is entering the final year of his contract and the C’s may try to fetch some value for him now before he can walk away next summer with no compensation. Yabusele is end-of-roster fodder for now, but he could be used as trade bait as well.

Non-guaranteed/partially guaranteed contracts for 2018-19 season

Jonathan Gibson: $1.7 million (non-guaranteed)
Daniel Theis: $1.4 million (fully guaranteed if not waived by 7/10/18)
Semi Ojeleye: $1.4 million ($900,000 guaranteed before 7/15/18)
Abdel Nader: $1.4 million ($450,000 guaranteed, fully guaranteed if not waived by 8/1/18)

BSJ Analysis: Theis is a lock to make the roster after a terrific rookie season at age 25. He will be fully recovered from his meniscus surgery in time for training camp. Ojeleye also established himself as a key defensive piece in the rotation and he will provide valuable depth with his versatility. Nader is a long shot to make the roster after an underwhelming rookie season. With only a third of his contract guaranteed, he’ll likely be kept around for the month of July but the guess here is the Celtics cut ties with him before August to save themselves some money on his contract. The team can do better with his roster spot. Gibson could be used as matching salary in a trade but he’s highly unlikely to make the roster.

Two-Way Contracts

Kadeem Allen is in the second-year of his two-way contract deal. He’ll earn $77,000 this season. Jabari Bird will be a restricted free agent since his two-way contract expired. He could be a candidate to make the 15-man roster in place of Nader.  

Celtics Free Agents

Restricted Free Agents (if tendered qualifying offer by June 30)

Marcus Smart: ($6.05 million qualifying offer)

BSJ Analysis: I covered the details on Smart’s situation in greater depth yesterday so I encourage you to check out that piece, but the basics here are simple. The Celtics can match any offer that Smart signs with another team (they have three days to match). If Smart doesn’t get any appealing offers from Boston or another team, he can play for his qualifying offer (one-year deal). That would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent for next summer and would also give him a no-trade clause during the 2018-19 season (per CBA rules).

Unrestricted Free Agents

Greg Monroe (Non-Bird Rights)
Shane Larkin (Non-Bird Rights)
Aron Baynes (Non-Bird Rights)

BSJ Analysis: All three of Boston’s unrestricted free agents were signed via one-year deals, so the Celtics will have limited options to retain them since they enter the offseason over the salary cap. One option they will have is using the non-Bird exception to retain them. That clause gives Boston the ability to sign each player for up to 120 percent of their previous contract. For instance, since Aron Baynes made $4.3 million in 2017-18, the Celtics could offer him a maximum starting salary of $5.16 million using that exception.

The other tools the Celtics will have at their disposal are the mid-level exception ($5.2 million for taxpayers, $8.5 million for non-taxpayers) and the bi-annual exception ($3.3 million).

Baynes is the only player who is a candidate for the mid-level out of this bunch, but the Celtics should have a good chance to retain him with his non-Bird rights given the glut of true bigs out there. Larkin has earned another NBA contract somewhere but he won’t command much more than the veteran’s minimum. The Celtics would welcome him back at that price but he might be seeking out more opportunity elsewhere given the logjam that will be in front of him if Smart returns. It’s hard to see Monroe returning given his lack of run in the postseason.

Celtics 2018 Draft Picks

No. 27

No second-round pick (traded to Oklahoma City)

For the first time in seemingly forever, the Celtics do not have a treasure trove of draft picks for this year’s draft. They have their own pick at No. 27 and their second-round selection is now owned by Oklahoma City Thunder to complete a trade from 2014 (Perry Jones III).