NBA Notebook: Dissecting potential draft lottery implications for Celtics taken at BSJ Headquarters (Celtics)

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For the second straight year, the Celtics will be pulling double duty on a Tuesday in May. Not only will they be playing in the Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals in Boston, but team executives will be watching the NBA Draft Lottery closely in New York to see if the Celtics can luck out and sneak into the top-3 of the draft for the third straight year.

The Celtics maneuvered for an extra shot at the lottery last year when they traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Sixers for the No. 3 pick (Jayson Tatum) and the rights to the Lakers 2018 first round pick, if it fell into the top-5 (top-1 protected).

Boston’s odds remain long for such a scenario after the Los Angeles Lakers finished with the 10th worst record in the league this season. Since only three teams are actually selected during the lottery process for the top three spots (the rest are ordered by worst remaining record), the Celtics can only end up with the Lakers pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3. The Sixers put protections on the No. 1 slot at the time of the trade with Boston last summer.

The Celtics will have a 1.3 percent chance of landing the No. 2 pick and a 1.6 percent chance of landing the No. 3 pick on Tuesday. Otherwise, that pick will be headed to the Sixers, where it will fall at No. 1 (1 percent chance) or somewhere in the No. 10-13 slots (96 percent chance).

Here’s a full breakdown of the lottery odds for each team heading into Tuesday night,

 

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So which teams should Celtics fans keep an eye on outside of the Lakers’ long odds? The fortunes of a few franchises in the lottery this year could have a direct bearing on future compensation for Boston in the years to come.


Memphis:
Mike Conley Jr.
Marc Gasol.


Sacramento: The Kings have an 18.3 percent chance of jumping into the top-3 and that’s a scenario that C’s fans should be rooting against since Sacramento’s 2019 first-round pick is likely headed Boston’s way next summer. If the Lakers pick does not convey this year, the C’s get the higher pick from Philadelphia or Sacramento in the first round next summer (top-1 protected). Therefore, an elite talent that lands in Sacramento this summer will reduce the odds of Boston landing another top lottery pick in 2019. Given the Kings’ lack of high upside on the roster and limited salary cap room, jumping up into the top-3 of the lottery is potentially the only way they can make a big splash this summer.


Cleveland:
Kyrie Irving
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard


LA Clippers: Between their own pick and Detroit’s (acquired in Blake Griffin trade) they have a five percent chance of jumping into the top-3. The Celtics are owed a top-14 protected first round pick next season, so adding elite talent to the Clippers would be good news for Boston, since that increases the odds of the Clippers conveying their pick one of the next two seasons by making the postseason. Otherwise, it will turn into a second-round pick in 2022.


Other News and Notes


  • It does not look like Celtics top assistant Jay Larranaga will be landing a head gig this summer after he was passed over in Charlotte (James Borrego) and Atlanta (Lloyd Pierce) this week, despite being a finalist for both positions.

  • As I anticipated in last week’s notes, Dwane Casey was let go by the Raptors this week after dropping his 10th straight postseason game to the Cavs. For a team without many options in terms of restructuring the roster, a fresh voice was the solution that made the most sense. I wonder if a proven name like Stan Van Gundy or Mike Budenholtzer will be pursued, or if the Raptors will try searching outside the NBA ranks for some new blood.

  • Van Gundy was let go by the Pistons this week after two straight playoff-less seasons in the East. The move is the second straight year that a coach that also wore the general manager hat was shown the door by an NBA team (Doc Rivers was stripped of his president duties last year). After Van Gundy left the Pistons with ugly payroll issues for the next few years, that Pistons gig looks to be destined for mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

  • Paul George underwent a left knee scope this week, which should help explain some of his postseason struggles with the Thunder. He’ll recover in 6-8 weeks, just in time for him to hit the free agent market with a clean bill of health.

  • More signs of the tight cap climate this summer as a pair of role players in Kosta Koufos and Wesley Johnson exercised their player options for next season with the Kings and Clippers respectively.

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