Looking ahead to 2018: Bruins need to upgrade defense in the offseason

When the Bruins offered Zdeno Chara a one-year, $5 million extension at the end of March, they signaled they still obviously see the 41-year-old defenseman as part of their future plans. One of the biggest questions moving forward into the 2018 season is whether Chara will still play the bulk of minutes he occupied on the ice this season.

Chara has proved to this point that he's defied the league's youth movement. He's in absurdly good shape and can still be effective. Chara and Charlie McAvoy were tasked with defending the Lightning's top scoring line, and Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and J.T. Miller combined for just four goals. The problem was that the rest of the Lightning team roasted the Bruins defense.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Torey Krug and Kevan Miller were on the ice for 11 goals in 61 high-danger scoring chances. By comparison, Chara and McAvoy gave up six in 87 high-danger attempts.

As the Bruins move ahead, it's likely in their best interest not to deploy Chara on the ice for 24 minutes a night, which is what he nearly averaged in the playoffs. More so, Chara is still relied on as the Bruins top penalty killer. He averaged 3:39 of short-handed time in the playoffs – hard, taxing minutes that could ultimately burden the Bruins defenseman.

McAvoy and Torey Krug bring strong offensive talent to the Bruins blue line, but the addition of a legitimate shutdown defender will be needed to ease Chara's workload in the upcoming season and round out their top-four unit. It won't be cheap, and the Bruins are projected to have just under $10 million available in cap space, according to Cap Friendly. An addition like Capitals defenseman John Carlson, set to become an unrestricted free agent, will likely be out of their price range. Perhaps they hope to have that in Brandon Carlo, but the 21-year-old defenseman is recovering from a broken left ankle.

Here's a look at the Bruins roster and projections for what it will look like at the start of the 2018 season:

DEFENSE

Players under contract for 2018 (salary in parentheses): Zdeno Chara ($5M), Torey Krug ($5.25M), Adam McQuaid ($2.75M), Kevan Miller ($2.5M), Charlie McAvoy ($916,667), Brandon Carlo ($89,167).

Players not under contract for 2018: Matt Grzelcyk (RFA), Nick Holden.

Key stat: According to Corsica, the only Bruins defenseman with a positive expected goal plus/minus was Krug and it was a measly .35. Grzelcyk was the worst with a -1.96. Expected goals are based on a formula that assigns goal expectancy to shot quality, and considers shot type, angle, bounce, rebounds, and rushes.

BSJ Analysis: Chara continued to be a horse in the playoffs. The 41-year-old averaged 23:26 of ice time in the playoffs and a whopping 3:39 of short-handed time. That's a lot of heavy minutes on the penalty kill, and the Bruins will need to get some help there next season. ... McAvoy was better in the second round than he was in the first, and he tried like heck to make something happen for the Bruins when they were desperate. ... Carlo’s injury really hurt the Bruins in the postseason. It was the second year in a row the young defenseman was hurt before the playoffs, which is just unfortunate. Carlo brought a stout defensive presence to balance the second pairing with the offensive-minded Krug. It’s still unclear when Carlo returns, and the Bruins will need a better effort on that second pairing until he is back. ... There are two plays that stick out in my head from the Bruins loss to the Lightning: Miller’s breakout pass in Game 3 that got picked at the blue line and turned into a Lightning goal that put them ahead 3-1, and Miller’s muffed breakout pass in Game 5 that led to Brayden Point’s game-tying goal. ... Grzelcyk is a restricted free agent and made $858,750 this season, so he will be due 105 percent of that as a qualifying offer based on the league’s restricted free agent rules, but the Bruins still need more oomph on the blueline.

LEFT WING

Players under contract for 2018: Brad Marchand ($6.125M), Jake DeBrusk ($863,333), Danton Heinen ($872,500), Ryan Donato ($900,000), Anders Bjork ($925,000).

Players not under contract for 2018: Tim Schaller, Tommy Wingels.

Key stat: DeBrusk was one of the Bruins best forwards in the playoffs and his future is certainly bright. He finished the playoffs with a Corsi percentage of  50.34, according to Corsica. Corsi percentage, which presents raw Corsi as a ratio, typically indicates if a team generated more chances. Only five other Bruins players – Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, Krejci, and Rick Nash, had a Corsi percentage over 50.

BSJ analysis: The Bruins are pretty well-stocked here. DeBrusk carved out a nice role for himself on the second line with David Krejci and Rick Nash. He played hard and physical and, by the end of the season, was comfortable demanding the puck to make plays. ... In the playoffs, we saw Bruce Cassidy put Donato on the second line when the Bruins were desperate. My guess is that Donato and DeBrusk will fill out the second and third line left wing position, and they will be flipped accordingly next season. I like DeBrusk on the second line to start, based on what he proved in his rookie season ... Schaller should be easy to bring back on a two-year deal. I’d also like to see Heinen in the lineup regularly. He had 47 points and a strong start to the season but struggled toward the end. He only played three games against the Lightning, but his versatility to play either wing will serve him well. ... Bjork started the season on the Bruins' top line but injuries derailed his season. It’ll be interesting to see what he can bring when he returns from shoulder surgery.

CENTER

Players under contract for 2018: Patrice Bergeron ($6.875M), David Krejci ($7.25M).

Players not under contract for 2018: Sean Kuraly (RFA), Riley Nash.

Key stat: Riley Nash had zero primary points (goals or first assist) in nine playoff games. The only other with zero was Backes. Nash was not the primary reason for the Bruins secondary struggles, but his effort in the postseason was disappointing given his regular-season success.

BSJ analysis: Nash is likely in on the free agent market after a career year. He scored 15 goals and had 26 assists, but he faded in the playoffs, especially against the Lightning. The Bruins sorely lacked secondary scoring and the Bruins bottom-six forwards did not have a point in the series. Nash was scratched in Game 4 against the Lightning. Unless he comes in at a discount, he’s as good as gone. Some team will likely pay more for his 41 points than the Bruins will be willing to offer, and I wouldn’t fault Nash for taking the best offer. ... Kuraly was a bright spot for the Bruins in the playoffs. He’s one of their most gifted skaters and brings a lot of energy to the lineup. He’s a restricted free agent and made just over $800,000 this season, so he’s due to be offered 105 percent of that in a qualifying offer. I thought after the Lightning series, Kuraly showed that he’s deserving of more opportunities, perhaps as a third-line center.

RIGHT WING

Players under contract for 2018: David Pastrnak ($6.66M), David Backes ($6m), Noel Acciari ($725,000).

Players not under contract for 2018: Rick Nash, Brian Gionta.

Key stat: Nash and Backes combined for a -1.58 expected goals plus/minus, according to Corsica. Yuck.

BSJ analysis: One of the Nashes will be back in 2018 and I’m guessing it’s Rick. It’s possible that both are gone, but the 33-year-old could be brought back based on a reasonable demand. I consider his time incomplete in Boston. He only played 11 games in the regular season and had three goals and three assists. He was one of the few players beyond the Bruins' top line that offered any scoring against the Lightning, though his two goals came in the same game. The Bruins gave up a lot to acquire Nash at the trade deadline, a package highlighted by a first-round pick and Ryan Spooner, but it would have been worth it had the Bruins made an extended run in the playoffs. If he is not back, expect the Bruins to look to free agency to find a replacement. ... The Gionta experiment ended with a dud when the 39-year-old was on the ice for the Bruins overtime goal that sank them in Game 4. Why he was on the ice, I still don’t know. The Bruins needed to shake up the lineup Gionta was a wild card that night.

GOALTENDER

Players under contract for 2018: Tuukka Rask ($7m).

Players not under contract for 2018: Anton Khudobin.

Key stat: Rask saved 92.23 percent of "medium-danger" shot attempts in the playoffs, according to Natural Stat Trick. That ranked eighth out of the 12 playoff goalies and is likely the area that hurt Rask most in the playoffs.

BSJ analysis: Good backup goaltending has always been relatively hard to find for the Bruins, it seems. Malcolm Subban ended up with the Golden Knights and was 13-4-2 this season. That must’ve hurt to watch from the Bruins' end, as Subban was plucked from waivers. The big thing with Khudobin is that the Bruins knew what they were getting with him in his second stint with the team when they brought him back in 2016. He was 16-6-7 this season, a serviceable backup, and the Bruins will likely need to bring him back for some insurance. Khudobin cost $1.2 million this season. The Bruins also have young, but unproven talent Dan Vladar and Zane McIntyre. Vladar, who spent most of the year in the ECHL, is only 20 years old and practiced with the Bruins during the playoffs. He played four games for Providence this season. McIntyre is a more known commodity and has been in the system since 2010. He's been playing in Providence since 2015 after playing college at North Dakota. McIntyre would be the more experienced option of the two.

Notable players in Providence (no particular order): Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Ryan Fitzgerald, Trent Frederic, Austin Czarnik, Anton Blidh, Peter Cehlarik.

BSJ analysis: The Bruins have a lot of depth in Providence at the center position and likely will get some help here to fill in the void likely left from Riley Nash’s departure. Third-year center Czarnik had a team-high 69 points in Providence and played a handful of games for the Bruins this season. Forsbacka Karlsson had a solid developmental year after he joined the Bruins last season for one game after leaving Boston University. Frederic, the team’s 29th overall pick in 2016, is only 20 and has a bright future ahead.

Note: Contract numbers from Capfriendly.com