The Patriots entered Friday night with two second-round picks at their disposal, and they left having somehow made three trades.
How’d they make out?
Here, I'll break each deal from the perspective of trade value. For reference, I’ll use a draft curve that I recently described here. This specific approach combines two traits – the average historical performance of each pick and the likelihood that each pick becomes a superstar -- into one, single number value.
Before starting, I'll note that it is rare that draft curves like mine will ever find value in trading up to make a choice. Historically, teams have overestimated their ability to evaluate talent, despite the fact that, in the last four decades, there's been no noticeable evidence that the league as a whole has improved at drafting.
The best way to look at draft picks is to think of them as lotto tickets, where each ticket boasts slightly reduced odds of hitting than the one before it. And, like lotto tickets, most draft picks end up as misses — even among picks at the top of the four round, there's less than a 1 in 3 chance that a given pick becomes a superstar.
Did the Patriots make good deals on Day 2 of the 2018 draft?
Find out more below.
Trade 1
Patriots trade pick No. 43 to the Lions for picks No. 51 and 117.
The Patriots’ first trade was also their best one. To slide back eight spots in the second round, the Patriots picked up a mid-fourth-round choice from Detroit. On my pick-value chart, pick 43 holds 96 points worth of value, while pick No. 51 is worth 84 points and pick No. 117 is worth 27 points. Thus, the Pats picked up 111 total points of draft value from Detroit in exchange for 96 points.
Another way of looking to it is to divide New England’s haul (in terms of pick value) by Detroit’s. In this case, 111/96 is about 1.16, so the Patriots picked up about 16 percent more value than the Lions.
This is a good deal for New England, and it's an argument I can comfortably make regardless of whether or not Kerryon Jonhson (Detroit's selection at No. 43), Dante Pettis (San Francisco's selection at No. 44), or Josh Jackson (Green Bay's choice at No. 45), players otherwise available, work out.
Trade 2
Patriots trade pick No. 51 to the Bears for pick No. 105 and a 2019 second-round pick.
This trade's a bit more difficult to evaluate because of a difficult question -- what is the Bears' second-round pick in next year's draft worth today?
It's often assumed picks in future years depreciate by roughly one round in a year's time. In this instance, the current value of Chicago's 2019 second-round pick can roughly be considered equivalent to Chicago's 2018 third-round pick today. Under this assumption, New England gave away pick No. 51 (still worth 84 points) for picks No. 105 (30 points) and pick No. 70 (60 points, the equivalent of Chicago's 2018 3rd-round choice).
New England wins this deal slightly. However, it's worth noting part of this assessment depends both on how one values selections in a future draft and how well the Bears finish in the 2018 season. If Chicago continues to struggle and New England ends up with a pick in the 30s in next year's draft, this trade was assuredly worth it.
Trade 3
Patriots trade up to pick No. 56 in exchange for picks No. 63 and No. 117.
Trading up in the NFL draft is more often than not a fool's errand, and this is no exception. I'd value the 56th selection at 77 points, which is less than what the 63rd (68 points) and 117th (27 points) add up to. When adding the two choices the Patriots gave up, New England paid about 23 percent more than it should've to acquire pick No. 56.
It's (again) worth noting that we make this claim regardless of whether or not Duke Dawson -- New England's choice with this selection -- works out. The draft is too much of a crapshoot to ever overpay this much for anyone.
Another question worth asking: if the Patriots considered Dawson to be that good, why didn't they select him at No. 51 and keep the rest of this year's picks?
Summary
Given the way that each trade intertwined, it's possible to look at New England's performance as a whole.
The Patriots took the two selections that they entered the day with (pick No. 43, from the Jimmy Garoppolo trade, as well as their own second-round choice) and turned them into three choices: Dawson, pick No. 105 (coming later today), and Chicago's second-round pick in the 2019 draft.
My initial reaction is a positive one. Basically, the Patriots turned their two second-round choices into two second-round choices and an early fourth-rounder (pick No. 105).
However, it's a bit un-Patriot-like when considering the following. New England found the 117th pick enticing enough that it traded back eight spots early in the second round (via the trade with Detroit). But then they also found that same 117th pick worth trading up just seven spots at the end of the second round. This doesn't make sense. Moving eight spots in the early portions of the second round is undoubtedly worth more than moving seven spots later in the second round. However, in this instance, New England paid the same price to do both.
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