Price: Bill Belichick’s decision to punt on much of this draft is a serious gamble

FOXBOROUGH — In the end, the Patriots’ 2018 draft wasn’t about need. It was about 2019. And beyond.

Bill Belichick went into this week with an unprecedented amount of draft capital. He’d never had two firsts and two seconds in his coaching career. But after three days of team building, the biggest takeaway for New England? If you don’t like the look of the groceries, there’s no sense in even thinking about cooking the dinner.

Nine picks, eight trades. No team made more moves over the three days than the Patriots. It set a record for most draft weekend trades in franchise history, which is a landmark, even for a Belichick-coached team. By the end of the draft, their value trade chart was shredded.

“Had to bring a sheet this time to keep (the trades) straight,” said Patriots personnel chief Nick Caserio with a smile as he approached the podium at the end of the day on Saturday.

“No sense in going through the trade recap — hopefully everybody wrote it down in pencil as you were going through the day.”

To be fair, it was more than just trades for the Patriots this weekend. They did find some players. Looking at the depth chart, it’s reasonable to see Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel and Duke Dawson getting significant snaps at some point in 2018. There could be a really interesting positional battle at left tackle and slot corner. And there were some really intriguing developmental prospects who were scooped up on Day 3, including wide receiver Braxton Berrios, who looks a lot like an economy-sized version of Julian Edelman.

But when it came to the 2018 draft for the Patriots, there was no elite-level, off-the-ball linebacker. There was no franchise left tackle. And maybe most importantly (with apologies to seventh-round pick Danny Etling), they didn’t settle on an heir to Tom Brady at quarterback. (Feel free to take the next few moments to Google “2019 QB draft class.”)

“There were good football players littered throughout this draft. There’s players that were picked early, there’s players that were picked in the middle, there’s players that were picked late that are going to have an impact on their respective teams,” Caserio said.

“You just try to sort through it and just try to pick the players that fit your team, your program as best as possible, and just make a good decision. Make the right decision, and then just move forward.”

While it’s important to remember that team-building is a year-round endeavor — there are plenty of stories of UDFA’s making a surprise impact and street free agents beating the odds and making the roster — the rookies class and the group that’s in the building now is pretty much going to be the roster the Patriots will take to camp in July.

So why didn't they at least go after some guys? You can argue about whether or not they missed out on some potential targets. (You can't tell me Mike Vrabel didn't have some inkling when it came to Belichick's draft approach.) But their decision to trade down (and into 2019) represents the fact that -- good or bad -- they’re happier with the guys they have coming back than the ones who might have been available in the draft than the prospects who were on the board. They’re basically gambling on the idea that Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Marcus Cannon, Dont’a Hightower, Vincent Valentine, Jonathan Jones, Harvey Langi and the rest of the players that ended 2017 on injured reserve are better options than using draft picks on players they’re not completely in love with.

Honestly, it's a fair argument. But it also represents a colossal roll of the dice, especially when you consider the narrow margin for error at the top of the NFL mountain, the need for constant churning of the roster, as well as the age of the quarterback. (Caserio talked a little about why they made the decision they did on the quarterback position here.) That doesn’t even begin to take into account the fact that when the Patriots have punted on the draft in the past, it’s frequently come back to haunt them down the road.

So for 2019 -- right now -- New England has a first-rounder, two second-round picks and a third. That’s in addition to what should be a pair of third-round compensatory picks. Six picks in the first three rounds and 12 picks overall. Of course, the only way it’ll do them any good in 2018 is if they want to pull the trigger on a deal involving a player — they’ll certainly have the draft capital to try something like that. And if you’re a glass-is-half-full type, you can likely take solace in the fact that by trading back in 2019 so often, there’s no way Belichick is leaving after this season.

Did they make those moves with the expressed idea of targeting guys next year? Caserio said that when it comes to weighing the merits of standing pat and using the draft capital vs. saving that currency for the following year is a case-by-case situation. Basically, they don’t necessarily go into a draft one year thinking about what might happen a year down the road.

“It’s pretty organic,” said Caserio when asked about potentially maneuvering into 2019. “You don’t go into it and say, ‘Let’s build this stockpile (of picks).’ This is kind of the tale of a couple of years. We go from having basically no picks — last year, we picked basically four players or whatever it was. This year, we picked nine guys. And we have some other assets we’ve accumulated here, (so) we have X amount of picks for next year.

“(But) it’s very organic. We just try and take it as it comes and just weigh the merits of picking the player — is this something we think makes sense?” he asked. “Team-building is an ongoing process. There’s no template. There’s no book that will tell you ‘We’ll do this, and this is going to happen.’ We just try and be prepared and try and take the information that we have and try and make the best decision for the organization possible.”

How will those decisions play out? In the end, the results of Belichick’s draft gambit won’t be known for some time. But the results of his three-day wager will go a long way toward shaping the ultimate legacy of the 2018 Patriots.