You’ve got questions. We have answers. When it comes to the Patriots, here’s the latest as we count down to the start of round one Thursday night.
1. Will they operate like they have in the past when it comes to the first and second rounds?
Even with five picks in the top 100 and more pre-draft currency than Bill Belichick has ever had as a coach (he’s never had two firsts and two seconds in one draft), this draft will probably look a lot like past Belichick drafts, at least early on. When it comes to the first round, other than maybe Laurence Maroney in 2006, he always goes for the sure thing. The second round is when he thinks outside the box and takes a chance. Sometimes, that works (Jimmy Garoppolo, Rob Gronkowski, Deion Branch). And sometimes, it doesn’t (Jordan Richards, Ras-I Dowling). If they’re going to do something that makes everyone say, “Wow,” history tells us that it’s going to happen on Day 2. Of course, the fact that Belichick holds two first-round picks and two second-round picks could mean he’d be a little more willing to get a little crazy this time around, but I’d still look for him to take a guy he views as a rock-solid prospect come Day One. From this perspective, that’s Alabama linebacker Rashaan Evans.
One more note: when it comes to potential draft weekend trades, here’s an updated look at New England’s favorite trade partners since Belichick took over in 2000. (This list has every franchise he’s traded with at least five times, as well as where they pick in the first round.)
Ten trades: Oakland (which has the 10th overall pick in the draft)
Eight trades: Green Bay (No. 14 overall), Denver (No. 5)
Seven trades: New Orleans (No. 27), Chicago (No. 8), Cleveland (Nos. 1 and 4)
Six trades: Detroit (No. 20), Houston (no first round pick), Philadelphia (No. 32)
Five trades: Tampa Bay (No. 7), Baltimore (No. 16)
2. Will they be reactionary when it comes to the left tackle spot?
No. During the pre-draft process, there’s been some terrific back-and-forth among BSJ commenters about whether or not the Patriots should go all-in in the first round on Kolton Miller of UCLA or Connor Williams of Texas, considered the two best tackles in the draft, as replacements for Nate Solder. The thought is that — especially in the wake of Belichick’s comments about not drafting for need — that sort of move would be a reactionary decision that would be out of character for New England. There have been several years where you would think the Patriots’ pre-draft priorities were easy to spot — pass rusher, field-stretching wide receiver, etc. — only to have Belichick pull a complete 180. None of this is to suggest that New England would completely abandon the idea of drafting a left tackle at No. 23. It's only to say it feels more like something they’d go for at No. 31, or sometime on Day 2. It’s only to remind you that it would be out of character for Belichick on a few levels. Specific to the idea of a left tackle at No. 23, the Patriots are probably pretty secure in the fact that if they waited and went after a tackle on Day 2, someone like Dante Scarnecchia could coach him up to the point where they’d be comfortable putting him in the starting lineup at some point in the season, provided something happened to expected incumbent LaAdrian Waddle or youngster Tony Garcia.
3. Are they happy with the guys they currently have in the building?
Maybe. Former NFL scout Dan Hatman brought up this point when we spoke in February, and it’s worth reiterating heading into this weekend: When it comes to team-building, you need to do a lot of self-scouting when it comes to the players who ended the previous year on injured reserve. If you feel comfortable with the state of some of the guys who finished the season on the sideline — namely, Garcia and edge defender Derek Rivers — you might rearrange those priorities. The truth? When it comes to filling some needs, the best options might be in your own building. “It’s easy to forget about those guys, but their health situation will likely make the difference in just how active the Patriots are at those spots in the draft,” Hatman told me in February. (Ultimately, when it comes to Garcia, how they answer here will also serve to shed some light on how they answer the second question.)
4. When will they take a quarterback?
Day 2. The Patriots are going to draft a quarterback. Historically, few teams have been as aggressive as New England the last dozen-plus years when it comes to selecting a signal-caller — since 2001, only four teams have drafted more quarterbacks than New England, and that doesn’t even begin to take into account the undrafted free agents like Brian Hoyer and the random street pickups like Tim Tebow along the way. This year, of course, there’s more at stake, as they will theoretically be in the market for a young backup. Will they flip the draft on its head and go after Lamar Jackson in the first round? Maybe a mid-range prospect like Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, Washington State’s Luke Falk or Western Kentucky’s Mike White? Or do they wait even later and take a run at someone like Princeton’s Chad Kanoff or Toledo’s Logan Woodside? All legit possibilities. The feeling here is they wait until Day 2 and pick Lauletta, a quarterback who checks off a lot of the boxes when it comes to a prototypical Tom Brady backup.
5. Does the announced return of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for 2018 change their draft approach?
A little. With Brady, they were going to draft a quarterback no matter what he would have done. Gronkowski? He might be another matter. When the possibility of the big fella retiring or playing elsewhere in 2018 was initially raised, you could start to draw a line between the Patriots and three of the best tight ends in the draft in Mike Gesicki (Penn State), Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State) and Hayden Hurst (South Carolina). Now, with Gronkowski apparently committed to 2018 in New England, the immediate need for a tight end is probably lessened a bit, especially when you consider some of the other areas of need for this football team. They’ll still go out and get a tight end, but it isn’t necessarily the priority it was a week or two ago.