The NFL draft starts Thursday. In preparation, I wanted to look back at how the Patriots have done in the draft since 2000, Bill Belichick’s first season with the franchise.
One tricky aspect of looking at a team’s draft history is that not all picks are created equal. For example, the Patriots’ first pick in the 2017 draft wasn’t until No. 83, used on defensive end Derek Rivers. By that point, however, the Browns had already made five picks, including three selections in the first round. As a result, the Browns should have had a better draft haul than New England last year, at least in terms of cumulative player performance.
A better way to look at draft pick success is to compare a player’s actual performance to how other players drafted at a similar spot in the draft have done. Using Pro-Football-Reference’s Career Approximate Value and a bit of statistical modeling, here’s a chart of all NFL players drafted since 2000. Patriots players are shown in red, while players on other teams are shown in grey. The two lines -- red for the Patriots, black for the rest of the NFL -- reflect an overall trend between pick number and performance.
Player-wise, Tom Brady is in a league by himself, and he would be no matter where he had been selected. But I also highlighted 10 other Patriots players who have outperformed expectations, including four offensive linemen (Logan Mankins, Matt Light, Shaq Mason, and Dan Koppen). Alternatively, Dominique Easley, Chad Jackson, and Ras-I Dowling -- all shown in the bottom left of the chart -- stand out as the three worst picks of the Belichick era.
You can also use the curves to contrast New England versus the rest of the league. Early in the draft, the Patriots have done well, hitting picks at a better-than-average rate. The rest of the draft is a bit more hit-or-miss, though, with the red and black lines roughly overlapping.
Altogether, based on where they have picked, the Patriots rank as the fifth-best drafting team since 2000. This likely underscores how well New England has done in the draft. One thing our chart can’t account for is where the Patriots were initially slated to pick prior to trades, or for any value the Patriots have obtained (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandin Cooks) via trades. By frequently trading down, Belichick generally takes advantage of other franchises by obtaining more value than his picks would have had otherwise.
Check back later this week, as I’ll pitch in again to judge any trades the Pats pull off this draft.
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