Can Tom Brady's contract history give us a clue about potential timeline for an extension?

I've been getting a lot of questions on Twitter lately like this one about the possible timing of a Tom Brady extension. In that context, I thought that now would be a good time to review Brady's contract history to see if that can provide some clues about what could lie ahead for the quarterback.



As you can see below, seven of the twelve deals Brady signed with the Patriots have occurred after today's date -- April 17.

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The next table reports on the cash that Brady has received over the years.
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The next table has Brady's cap numbers

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Answering some questions I anticipate this will create:

Question: Do you think that Brady will be extended?

Answer: My gut tells me yes. And like in 2002, 2006 and 2010, it will come right before the beginning of the regular season.

Question: Why is there a $30,000 difference between the cap number total and the cash number total?

Answer: Brady earned $30,000 in NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) playing-time incentives during the 2001 season. In 2002, the Patriots adjusted cap number was debited the $30,000. Brady's 2001 cap number was not changed.

Question: Why is there a difference between Brady's cap number and his cash intake for a particular year?

Answer: Signing bonuses are prorated over the life of the deal. Maximum proration is five years. For example, Brady's $14,500,000 signing bonus in 2005 was prorated $2,900,000 over the 2005/2006/2007/2008/2009 seasons.

Question: Has Brady ever taken a paycut?

Answer: No. Every restructure or extension Brady has ever done resulted in him receiving in at least the same amount of cash that he was originally scheduled to receive for that year.

Question: How would you describe Brady's 2013 and 2016 extensions?

Answer: Not as paycut, but as a below-market deal. For example, in March 2016, Joe Flacco received a $40 million signing bonus as part of an extension. A couple of weeks later, Brady received a $28 million signing bonus as part of his extension. If one were to compare Brady to Flacco, a $60 million signing bonus would have been certainly reasonable.

Question: Has Brady ever been the league's highest-paid player?

Answer: Yes. His 2010 extension made him the league's highest-paid player for a brief period.

Question: What is Brady's APY?

Answer: $20.5 million.

Question: Where does Brady rank, cap-wise?

Answer: His $20.5 million APY is the 16th highest. His 2018 cap number of $22 million is currently tied for the 10th highest. His 2019 $22 million cap number is the 14th highest. His $15 million cash intake in 2018 is the 20th highest, but will go lower once the top quarterbacks in the 2018 draft are signed. His $15 million cash intake in 2019 is tied for the 19th highest.

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