While the NBA playoffs are about to kickoff, the results will have no bearing on the NBA Draft order, which was finalized on Friday after a number of tiebreakers were held. The Celtics currently hold just one pick in this year’s draft (No. 27), but with a number of selections owed to them for future seasons, there are several teams to keep an eye on in this year’s draft order.
With that in mind, let’s take stock of all the relevant picks in play for this year for Boston as well as the fate of other teams that owe the Celtics down the line.
Celtics’ own picks
No. 27. The Celtics do not have a second-round pick in 2018 since it was only top-55 protected from a previous deal.
The No. 57 selection will be sent to the Oklahoma City Thunder to complete a 2015 trade for Perry Jones III. The move at the time was a similar dump for OKC (C’s got cash as part of the deal), as they gave away Jones for a bottom of the barrel pick. Boston got a free look at Jones in training camp before cutting him. Picks in the 50-60 range in the NBA Draft are easy to come by (with cash), so losing No. 57 should be no big loss for Boston.
2018 Lakers’ protected pick
The Lakers officially finished with the 10th-worst record in the NBA (35-47), which makes the 2-5 protections on this pick look wiser than ever for Boston. Since the pick is top-1 protected, Boston only has a 2.9 percent chance of receiving the No. 2 or No. 3 pick in this year’s draft. The Sixers have a 1.1 percent chance of receiving the No. 1 pick, otherwise the odds heavily favor it landing in the No. 10 (87 percent) or No. 11 (9.6 percent) slot. Given the powerhouse of young talent the Sixers already have in place, the Celtics and the rest of the Eastern Conference are catching a break with the selection falling toward the tail end of the lottery. With that said, Celtics’ fans will have a reason to watch on lottery night, even though the odds are probably better the C’s find a way to the NBA Finals than receive the No. 2 or No. 3 pick.
Odds of Celtics receiving Lakers pick: 2.9 percent
2018 Nets’ unprotected pick
The final crown jewel of the Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade is in the hands of the Cavs now after the Celtics sold high on it in the Kyrie Irving deal. That gamble has paid off from an odds perspective, as Brooklyn finished with only the eighth-worst record in the NBA after they closed the season out with three wins in their final five games. This leaves the Cavs with fairly lackluster odds of a top-3 pick in a loaded 2018 draft class:
No. 1: 2.8 percent
No. 2: 3.3 percent
No. 3: 3.9 percent
No. 8: 72 percent
No. 9: 16.5 percent
No. 10: 0.8 percent
You can bet the Cavs projected those odds to be much higher for the top-3 back when the deal was made in August, so the C’s can feel good about the timing of the move, despite Irving’s injury woes. Cleveland obviously has a number of different options with this asset, which could ultimately influence LeBron James free agency decision in July. For now, barring some lottery luck, the Cavs’ decision to hold pat with it this season may end up hurting its ultimate value.
Odds of Cavs receiving top-3 Nets pick: 10 percent
Checking in on teams that owe Celtics future picks
Kings (2019 first round pick, top-1 protected)
We took a longer look at the Kings’ situation last month, but this is the selection that the 2018 Lakers pick will roll over into if Boston doesn’t get lucky with 2.9 percent odds in this year’s lottery for a top 3 pick. Despite having arguably the worst roster in the league from a talent perspective, the Kings finished relatively strong down the stretch in 2018, closing out with four wins in their final 10 games to pull them out of the NBA cellar and into a tie for the sixth-worst record in the NBA.
This is good news from Boston’s perspective since that late improvement highly diminishes the Kings’ odds of jumping into the top-3 of this year’s lottery (enhancing the chances they don’t land a prized prospect in this year’s draft). Sacramento also lost a draft tiebreaker to the Bulls on Friday, so they will pick behind Chicago if neither jumps into the top-3 on lottery night.
Here’s a look at their exact odds for 2018 picks:
No. 1: 5.3 percent
No. 2: 6.0 percent
No. 3: 7.0 percent
No. 7: 57.3 percent
No. 8: 22.6 percent
No. 9: 1.8 percent
With an 81 percent chance they will be drafting No. 7 or below, Sacramento should be out of the market for elite names like DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Luka Doncic and Michael Porter Jr. Given the lack of elite talent within the team’s young core, it’s hard to envision them landing a game-changer from this spot in 2019, which should only increase the trade value of that 2019 draft pick.
Asset value trending: Up
2019 Clippers pick (top-14 protected)
This is a lottery protected pick from LA for '19 and '20, otherwise it turns into a '22 second-round pick. Essentially, if the Celtics want to see the pick, they are rooting for the Clippers to improve and become a playoff team yet again after falling short during 2017-18. The good news on that front is that LA has some ammo to improve during the 2018 NBA Draft. The Clippers will have two lottery picks this year, their own (No. 13) and Detroit’s (No. 12), barring some crazy lottery luck.
Those picks will be the best methods for the Clippers to improve this summer in all likelihood since they won’t have significant cap space to add pieces and could lose several other players in free agency (Avery Bradley, DeAndre Jordan, Montrezl Harrell). There is still a lot of talent left over here in an injury-plagued year for the Clippers, and owner Steve Ballmer clearly does not want to bottom out. Still, with the heavy competition throughout the Western Conference, C’s fans should be rooting for the Clippers to hit on these picks to keep them in the playoff mix for next season.
Asset value trending: Flat
2019 Grizzlies pick (top-8 protected in 2019, top-6 protected in 2020, unprotected in 2021)
Memphis put together a hell of a tank job in 2018, dropping to the second-worst record in the league after starting the season with a 6-3 mark. They are guaranteed a top-5 pick in this year’s draft with that collapse, with the odds heavily favoring it falling in the top-4
No. 1: 19.9 percent
No. 2: 18.8 percent
No. 3: 17.1 percent
No. 4: 31.9 percent
No. 5: 12.4 percent
So what does that mean for the C’s odds of getting the Grizzlies pick next year? On the surface, it’s not exactly clear. Adding a top-tier rookie to a core of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol makes this team a playoff threat again on the surface. However, this is a flawed roster with an immovable contract in Chandler Parsons and no cap room to make major free-agent signings. With Gasol and Conley moving into their 30s, the Grizzlies have to consider blowing things up this offseason by moving one or both of their stars while they can get something for them. That way, they can stay tanking for the next year or two and keep their protected picks in the top-8 and top-6 range.
On the flip side, those contracts are overpays as the salary cap has flattened out, so there may not be much of a market for either guy. The Grizzlies are also a small-market team, so they can’t really afford to trade the faces of the franchise and languish at the bottom of the league for long if they want to keep their fanbase engaged. Unless Gasol or Conley force their way out, I think the odds weigh in favor of them keeping this group together and trying to win games next year. That should put the '19 pick in play for Boston, since there is enough talent in place here for Memphis to climb out of the bottom eight.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Jodie Meeks will miss the postseason for the Wizards after getting nailed with a 25-game PED suspension. Washington signed free-agent point guard Ty Lawson on the final day of the year to add some depth to their playoff backcourt in place of Meeks.
- Busy week of firings after the end of the regular season as Steve Clifford, Frank Vogel and Jeff Hornacek were cut loose already. With interim coaches in place in a couple other spots (Phoenix, Memphis), look for up to six new head coaches in the league next year.
- Nice to see the Hawks letting head coach Mike Budenholzer interview with the Suns for their open head coaching position, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. The Hawks will be tanking for a couple more years it appears, and that’s a tough process for an older head coach to suffer through. Suns are looking to win now, which makes that opportunity more enticing with the young talent core they have in place already with Devin Booker and Josh Jackson.
- Steph Curry is still targeting a second-round return for the Warriors from his knee injury. Still no sign of Kawhi Leonard returning for the Spurs-Warriors series as he was ruled out for Game 1.
- First-round picks: Rockets in 5, Warriors in 5, Blazers in 7, Jazz in 6, Raptors in 7, Sixers in 6, Cavs in 6. Celtics pick coming later today.