Scouting report: Everything you need to know about the Bucks taken at Healthpoint (Celtics)

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Celtics

Scouting report: Everything you need to know about the Bucks

By Brian Robb

Apr 13, 2018 • 4:39 pm

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The Milwaukee Bucks have been an incomplete puzzle for virtually the entire regular season. Whether it was Jabari Parker (torn ACL), Malcolm Brogdon (hip), Matthew Dellavedova (ankle), they never had a healthy full roster until Game 82 of the regular season. There was a midseason coaching change, a blockbuster early-season trade (Eric Bledsoe) and several new additions around the trade deadline (Tyler Zeller, Brandon Jennings, Shabazz Mohammad). All of this has produced a Bucks team where the sum of its parts have produced an underwhelming record when you compare it to the individual talent on paper.

In the face of disappointing results, the Bucks have been trying to figure things out on the fly all year long, but there are some distinct trends the Celtics will be able to take advantage of and have to guard against during the teams' first-round matchup. After reviewing the numbers and the film, here’s a closer examination of what the Bucks can and can’t do well and how exactly the Celtics will handle things on those fronts.

The Basics

Pace: 98.5 (20)
OffRtg: 107.8 (7)
DefRtg: 107.1 (17)
NetRtg: +0.7 (15)



BUCKS STRENGTHS

Getting to the free-throw line: The Bucks have the seventh-best offense in the NBA, despite being a subpar 3-point shooting team. How have they managed to overcome their shooting woes to become an elite scoring attack? It starts with their ability to draw contact. They got to the line 23.4 times per game this season, which puts them at the fourth-highest free throw rate in the league (per FG attempt). Teams know they want to drive, but they still manage to find creases within the defense that force opponents to scramble and foul.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the head of the snake on that front. He ranks second in the NBA in FTA per game (8.5), using his long and agile frame to create contact all over the floor. He’s also surrounded by impressive secondary talent on that front as well. Eric Bledsoe (4.9 FTA/36 minutes) and Khris Middleton (4.4 FTA/36 minutes) are both above-average creators. They are capable 3-point shooters and have a strong first step, which will put a lot of pressure on a Celtics defense as they attempt to close out on them. Boston finished with the best defense in the NBA this year but they were middle of the pack among teams in free throw attempts allowed. Strong interior contests from Al Horford and Aron Baynes will help on this front, but the youngsters on the wing (Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum) need to stay smart and disciplined in defending this trio. Giving away easy points on the charity stripe is a recipe for disaster for an undermanned Celtics rotation that can’t afford any foul trouble.   

Forcing turnovers/getting out in transition: The Bucks don’t do a lot of things well on the defensive end, but creating turnovers is at the top of the list. That’s a concern for a Celtics team without two of its top ballhandlers. Milwaukee likes to trap the ballhandler in the pick-and-roll and overhelp towards the strong side of the floor to create havoc. That strategy has made them the third-best team in the NBA at forcing turnovers this year, aided by that and wings with length all over the floor. Live-ball turnovers can easily lead to fast breaks and that’s another area of the offense where Milwaukee does a ton of damage. They were the third-best team in the league at creating transition opportunities and sixth in the NBA in fast-break points (14.4 per game).



With exceptional speed at plenty much every position in the starting five, there is little opposing teams can do to slow them down on the break. For this reason, Brad Stevens is going to have to hammer the need for the C’s to play under control on offense. Risky passes are a recipe for disaster against this squad and the same goes for failing to hustle back and matching up on defense off of missed baskets. If the Celtics can force the Bucks to operate within their half-court offense for most of the game, they have won half the battle already.  

Length/athleticism: The Bucks might be the scariest team in the Eastern Conference on this front. Bledsoe is a blur in the backcourt. Middleton has terrific length for his size. Henson is an excellent shot blocker for his size (6-foot-9). Antetokounmpo is called the Greek Freak for a reason. Jabari Parker has a great inside/outside game for a 6-foot-8 forward. The Celtics are in better position this year than last year to combat some of these matchups with some athleticism of their own in more prominent places in the lineup (Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier) but it’s going to be tough for bigs like Greg Monroe and Aron Baynes to stick with any of these players in switches. The Bucks will have the ability to go small a lot with guards like Brogdon and Dellavedova back healthy and that will put a lot of pressure to spread out the C’s defense. Rotations and timely help defense are going to need to be on point all series long for Boston in order to keep the Bucks from wreaking too much havoc following mismatches and switches.  



BUCKS WEAKNESSES

Rebounding: This is weird ground for the Celtics to be dealing with. For the past three seasons, defensive rebounding has always been their Achilles’ heel in the postseason, thanks to an undersized aging frontcourt and limited length at other key positions on the floor. The equation has changed this year, however. The additions of Monroe and Baynes have added some necessary muscle to the frontcourt, while the expanded role of Rozier and Brown have helped the C’s turn into a top-10 rebounding team on both ends of the floor, which should come in handy against this Bucks squad. Milwaukee finished the year as the worst rebounding team in the league. Antetokounmpo is a monster on the defensive glass, but he lacks the muscle to box out the big boys like Monroe and Baynes. Henson and Tyler Zeller are both adequate centers at rebounding this year, but are subpar for their careers.

This is good news for a Celtics team that struggles to rebound when they go small. If the Bucks are going to take out their traditional centers, the C’s will be able to matchup without becoming vulnerable on the defensive glass.






Defending the 3: The Celtics have made a living shooting the 3 all year long (2nd in 3-point percentage, 10th in attempts), so seeing the worst 3-point shooting defense in the postseason as a first-round opponent is a welcome sign for the green. The Bucks do a lot of trapping in the halfcourt, which leads to a lot of help defense, missed rotations and, ultimately, open looks from beyond the arc. Due to those open looks, the Bucks have allowed opponents to hit 37.2 percent of their 3s all year long, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the NBA. They have a lot of talented individual defenders in Antetokounmpo, Bledsoe and Middleton but these guys struggle at times within the team’s defensive scheme. Communication is lacking at times on switches and rotations, which produces consistent opportunities for opponents. The key for Brad Stevens with his undermanned offensive attack, is to pick the right sets to throw the Bucks defense into disarray. The C’s don’t have the talent and driving ability to break down Bucks defenders in one-on-one matchups (outside of a weak spot like Jabari Parker). Instead, look for Greg Monroe and Al Horford to serve as facilitators for the offense from the high post, potentially working the ball from inside out in order to break down the defense and get the clean looks that the Bucks have served up all year long.  




Fouling/protecting the paint:






The Celtics have not been a great finishing team all year long in the restricted area, but they are going to need some of their more aggressive drivers to punish the Bucks on this front when they have the chance to attack closeouts. Tatum and Brown need to step up in this regard and be strong with the basketball around the rim. The same goes for bigs like Monroe and Baynes. The opportunities are going to be there down low, it’s going to be up to the C’s to finish them off, or at least get to the free throw line.   

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