McAdam: 5 questions, predictions for Red Sox heading into 2018 season

What a long strange trip it's been.

From the strange John Henry press conference at the start of spring training and the J.D. Martinez saga, to a Major League-best 22-9-1 record (whatever that means), spring training for the Red Sox was certainly interesting and productive from a team perspective.

As the team embarks on the new season — coming off back-to-back division titles but with a new manager in Alex Cora — we take a look at the five lingering questions and offer up some (mostly) individual predictions in advance of Thursday's season opener:

FIVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE 2018 RED SOX

How does Alex Cora find suitable playing time for Blake Swihart?

Swihart is out of options and the Sox were forced to find a spot for him on the roster. For his part, Swihart had a strong spring and warrant2d inclusion. And in an era when teams are seeking versatility in their bench players, Swihart brings that in spades, with the ability to play first, left field, some third, and of course, catch.  But the latter position is spoken for with Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, and so is first base with Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland ahead of him on the depth chart. Swihart could be a potent pinch-hitting option, but who in the regular lineup would be lifted for a pinch-hitter? It will take all of Cora’s creativity to involve Swihart.

Can the outfield rotation work?

The Sox maintain J.D. Martinez will get more-than-occasional playing time in the outfield, something that’s clearly important to him. Just 30, Martinez feels more engaged when he contributes defensively. But that leads to two problems: the current Red Sox outfield alignment of Andrew Benintendi-Jackie Bradley Jr.-Mookie Betts is arguably the best defensive trio in the big leagues; and Martinez is, at best, an adequate outfielder. He can probably be hidden in left at Fenway, but things will get trickier when they go on the road. And since much of Martinez’s playing time will likely come at Bradley’s expense – with Benintendi sliding over to cover center – does it really make sense to weaken yourself at two outfield positions?

Can Chris Sale be preserved?

The Red Sox introduced their streamlined pitching program for the spring, it was announced that it was to benefit every pitcher on the staff, from starter to reliever. But really, it’s imperative the Sox figure out a way to maintain Sale for the entire season. He has a history of faltering in August and September and it carried over to October last season, too, his first in the year in the playoffs. Sale feels fresh now, but will he be willing to yield to Cora and pitching coach Dana LeVangie when he gets to 95 pitches in a June start and the competitive juices kick in? The plan sounds great in theory, but its execution and follow-through may be more problematic.

Will infield defense be an issue?

As it stands, the Red Sox will begin the season with their two best infield defenders not on the field: Mitch Moreland will be on the bench and Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list. Rafael Devers remains a work in progress at third, and Xander Bogaerts has undergone a defensive makeover this spring to cut down on some errors and improve his range. Eduardo Nunez, while a valuable utility man, is sub-average at second and Hanley Ramirez, though he exceeded expectations in 2016, is limited. With Deven Marrero gone, there are no late-inning substitution options at third, short or second.

Can the Red Sox get Craig Kimbrel to buy into a different usage pattern?

Cora wants to, in time, have the option of using Kimbrel in the seventh or eighth if he feels the game is on the line. That’s the right approach, given Kimbrel’s dominance and it’s often true that it’s more important to get out of a two-on, one-out jam in the seventh then it is to preserve a three-run lead in the ninth with the bases empty. But every time that Kimbrel is asked about it, he does little to hide his distaste for the idea, even as he tells Cora he’s open to discussion on the topic. Kimbrel is headed for free agency this fall and perhaps he fears pitching in non-save situations will hurt his appeal. Somehow, Cora has to get Kimbrel to buy in.

FIVE PREDICTIONS

Eduardo Rodriguez will have a breakout season.

Red Sox starters are unanimous in their praise for Rodriguez’s stuff, with an assortment of plus pitches as part of his repertoire. But in each of his first three seasons with the team, Rodriguez has spent time on the DL with knee issues. He believes that’s been taken care of after last fall’s surgery, which should preclude the kneecap from popping out of place, as it did chronically. If Rodriguez can pitch with confidence and know that his season won’t be interrupted, it will be fascinating to see what he can produce over the course of a full, healthy season. Remember: he’s still just 24.

Xander Bogaerts will bounce back.

It’s easy to forget Bogaerts was an above-average offensive shortstop as recently as last June. But after being hit in the hand in the first week of July, he was never the same. It didn’t help that Bogaerts seemingly fell out of favor with former manager John Farrell. In Cora, Bogaerts seems to have a manager to whom he can connect, in part because of their shared position. Bogaerts may never lead the league in range factor, but he should be capable of playing league-average shortstop. And with some adjustments and added aggressiveness, he should be capable of a .850 OPS and better than 20 homers.

Hanley Ramirez will vest his option for 2019.

Relax – this isn’t a bad thing. If Ramirez clears the 497 plate appearance option, it will mean that he’s productive and the Red Sox want him back for next season. Ramirez starts the year healthy (surgically repaired left shoulder) and in terrific shape, which should help him again become a run producer in the middle of the lineup. It won’t hurt to have Martinez hitting behind him.

Tyler Thornburg will be a key member of the bullpen

After undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last year, Thornburg has yet to pitch so much as an inning as a member of the Red Sox. He won’t be on the Opening Day roster, but it shouldn’t be long before he’s activated; think May 1. Thornburg could have a big impact as one of the team’s primary set-up men, and his ability to get lefties out should be a big boost for a bullpen which will start the year with just one lefty – and an untested one at that, Bobby Poyner.

The Red Sox will go over the next luxury tax threshold at some point.

They’ve already well past the first one ($197 million), and the spring additions of both Nunez and Martinez sent them past the next level of $217 million). Next up: the final frontier of $237. As the season opens, the Red Sox are somewhere around $7-8 million shy, and while there would be competitive consequences to this level – including dropping 10 spots with their draft pick in 2019 – the Sox are in no position to stop now. What’s the old saying: in for a dime, in for a dollar? The Sox are committed to winning a championship (or two) before window slams shut in 2020, and they’re not about to let a few million dollars – or a draft slot – get in their way of going for it all. If there’s an injury – or an unforeseen weakness – at the deadline, the Sox will spend now and ask questions later.