There won't be much movement in the top two spots of the Eastern Conference over the next few weeks. The Raptors have pulled away from an injury-ravaged Celtics squad for the top seed in the East (five games up with 12 to play). Meanwhile, the Celtics have built a large enough lead for the second spot (seven games up on third seed) that it's hard to envision anyone making a run at them, despite their injury woes. With those two spots seemingly locked in, the intriguing race in the East lies among the rest of the pack.
As of Sunday morning, the Cavs hold sole possession of the third seed in the East, but they are currently separated from the sixth seed by just 1.5 games in the standings.
While it's safe to say the Celtics are no longer a guarantee to advance out of the first round (given their glut of injuries), avoiding the Cavs in the second round would surely be on the wish list for any Celtics fan in a hypothetical East bracket. Dodging LeBron James would be a huge win for the C's, both to increase their odds of getting to the Eastern Conference Finals, and for the prospect that they would only have to go through either the Raptors or Cavs to get to the NBA Finals. The questionable availability of Marcus Smart early in the postseason is all the more reason to hope for an easier draw.
So what are the chances that the Cavs actually fall to the fourth seed or lower at the end of 82 games? Let's examine the remaining schedules and other variables facing the Cavs, Wizards, Pacers and 76ers down the stretch and handicap who has the edge.
Head-to-head tiebreakers (Second tiebreaker would be conference record if season series is tied)
- CLE holds tiebreaker over PHI, WAS, (2-1 with one game to play)
- IND holds tiebreaker over CLE (3-1)
Conference record standings (second tiebreaker)
- Cavs (28-14)
- Pacers (30-18)
- Wizards (26-18)
- Sixers (24-18)
Cavs: (40-29)
Games remaining:
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning:
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
Analysis:
Injuries and an unforgiving schedule have not been kind to the Cavs over the past few weeks. They have played .500 basketball since the All-Star break, as nearly half of their roster has missed games at some across that stretch (Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, Jeff Green, Cedi Osman). Love’s absence has loomed large over this recent run of mediocre basketball, and the Cavs have not had enough reliable shot makers on the floor to keep pace with opponents that torch their still-struggling defense.
Thompson is the only other serious injury they are dealing with (he’s expected to sit out through March), while Hood, Nance Jr. and Osman should be back in a matter of days, not weeks. With that said, this is a revamped team that has struggled to build meaningful chemistry on the floor due to constant injuries. There will be few opportunities to practice over the next few weeks (they play every other day until the last week of the season), so it’s going to come down to health and how much LeBron James wants to put his foot on the gas. Home court advantage will help for a couple of showdowns with the Raptors and matchups with the Wizards, Bucks and Hornets. The fact that all of those tough games come at Quicken Loans Arena should help the cause, but if this group can’t get healthy, it’s not going to matter. Ty Lue has placed the priority on health over seeding the past couple seasons. It will be interesting to see if he follows suit this time around with a wider range of potential first-round opponents looming.
Sixers (38-30)
Games remaining:
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning:
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
Analysis:
The Sixers may be 1.5 games out of third seed with less than a month left in the regular season, but they are the favorites to move on and land that spot in my eyes. After fortifying their bench with a couple of useful buyout pickups (Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova), they have easily the easiest schedule remaining among any team in the NBA. There are only four opponents above .500 (fewest in league) left on the slate, and even the non-tanking teams they have on the horizon may very well be shutting down guys (Charlotte, Detroit) by the time they come up on the schedule.
If the Sixers take care of business in the games they should win, they’ll have a 10-4 finish to the year at minimum, which may be enough to bump them ahead of the pack. They don’t have any head-to-head matchups remaining with the Wizards or Pacers, so the game to watch is Friday, April 6th when they host the Cavs at home. That two-game swing in the standings will be crucial for their chances to stay in front of Cleveland, since a loss guarantees they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The only other variable in play here is the fact that the Sixers haven’t played great basketball overall lately. They’ve dropped their last three games to playoff teams and have had to rally to get past poor ones (Brooklyn, New York) in the last week. Despite having a relatively healthy roster, an ideal schedule doesn’t mean much if they can’t take care of business. Brett Brown will need to keep these guys focused if they want to secure home court in the first round, but the path is laid out nicely for them to do so.
Pacers (40-30)
Games remaining:
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning:
Games against ‘’tanking’ teams:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.555 (6th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
The biggest surprise in the Eastern Conference this year continues to exceed expectations as the NBA calendar turns toward April. The Pacers are currently a half game behind the third seed in the East with a tiebreaker advantage over the Cavs, but they have a challenging hill to climb to achieve that goal down the stretch. The schedule is loaded with playoff teams through the middle of April, and the team could be facing some big man depth issues in the next week or so as Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis deal with ankle injuries.
Still, it appears the Pacers will getting a few breaks in the midst of a daunting sprint to the finish. Two matchups with the Warriors look a lot less scary now that Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and potentially Steph Curry will be sidelined. A showdown with the Raptors during the last week of the regular season is likely to be meaningless to Toronto (they should have top seed wrapped up by then). Also, Indiana will catch New Orleans at the tail end of a five-games-in-six-nights stretch.
Other matchups, including a tough W
est coast trip (Clippers, Nuggets), make the Pacers an underdog to come out on top of this race, but they have been one of the more consistent teams all year. With a little luck on their side and a strong kick, they could remain in the mix for home court and are certainly a squad that Celtics fans should be rooting for, due to their tiebreaker edge over Cleveland.
Wizards (40-30)
Games remaining:
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning:
Games against ’tanking’ teams:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.498 (15th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
The Wizards have managed to stay afloat in the East without John Wall (13-8 record) over the past couple months. It’s still unclear when the All-Star will return to the lineup after undergoing knee surgery, but he has ramped up his rehab in recent weeks. Wall should provide a nice boost to a team with an easier schedule than it appears over the final 12 games of the year. Two of their games come against a shorthanded Spurs team, while a showdown with the Celtics on April 10th is unlikely to mean anything for Boston in the East standings. Brad Stevens could very well be resting starters at that point ahead of the postseason.
The big date to circle on the calendar is April 5th for a showdown with the Cavs at Quicken Loans Arena on TNT. It is unlikely to have any bearing on the eventual head-to-head tiebreaker (Cavs lead 2-1 now and have a big edge in conference record), but it could tip the scales toward the Wizards in the race for home court. Washington remains healthy outside of Wall and should have their foot on the gas down the stretch as they try to improve past a second-round finish in the East.
Final thoughts
With just 1.5 games separating four teams, the third seed can be had by anyone at this point. If forced to choose between the Cavs and the field, it’s hard not to go with the field based on the schedule and injury challenges that lie ahead for Cleveland. Philly has the best odds to make the jump, but ultimately, head-to-head matchups between the Cavs-Sixers and Cavs-Wizards could loom as deciding factors in the race. The Celtics won’t have much say in this race (only one head-to-head meeting left with Washington), but losses to the Wizards and Pacers last week could help the Celtics in avoiding a second-round date with LeBron this postseason.
Other NBA Nuggets
- Tough break for Avery Bradley, who will miss the remainder of the regular season after undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia. The shooting guard was disappointing in Detroit (likely due to injury) before being shipped to the Clippers and will be a free agent this summer. He looked like a $15-20 million player last offseason. It will be tough for him to crack much more than $10 million per year on a long-term deal this summer, in my opinion.
- Rockets appear to be in great shape to land the top seed in the West now that Durant and Thompson are sidelined for the next few weeks with various injuries. Houston getting homecourt for a likely Western Conference Finals showdown should make that series a little more even between the two squads.
- Wizards and Bucks have solidified their benches by signing point guards Ramon Sessions and Brandon Jennings respectively to contracts. Both guys should serve as third point guards once each team gets healthy in the postseason.
- A unique schedule quirk for the Pelicans this week as they are forced to play five games in six nights in the middle of a playoff race. A rescheduled game from January will be played on Wednesday, in the midst of what already was a busy four game in six days stretch. On the plus side, all the games will be played at home for New Orleans.