With each passing day, the odds the Celtics will be drafting in the 2018 NBA Lottery seem to shrink more and more. As of Sunday morning, the C’s chances of landing a first-round pick from the Lakers in the 2-5 pick range had dropped to 2.1 percent as a young Lakers squad continues to put up wins and move up the lottery standings down the stretch.
While drafting in a top spot of the 2018 NBA Draft is seems to be a pipe dream for these Celtics, the focus will slowly but surely turn to the 2019 Lottery. There is currently a 98 percent chance the 2018 Lakers pick will roll over into a top-1 protected 2019 first round pick from either the Kings or Sixers (whoever has the better draft spot at end of the year). If one of said squads does win the lottery and get the top pick, the Sixers get to keep it and the Celtics’ automatically get the other’s team selection.
Barring disaster in Philadelphia, Celtics fans will have their eyes on the Sacramento Kings next season, as it is highly probable they will be finishing in the lottery for the 11th-straight season (while the Sixers make the postseason).
Do the Kings have any hope of serious improvement for next year? Let’s take a look at their current roster situation, decisions that await them this summer and how a revamped NBA lottery system could help or hinder the C’s odds of getting a high pick.
A primer on this year’s Kings
They may have only the fifth-worst record in the NBA this year at 21-45, but this is arguably the team with the least promising outlook in the league right now. They rank 29th in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have won four more games than projected by their overall season numbers (per Basketball-Reference). This indicates they’ve gotten a bit lucky in close games and may have cost themselves prime lottery position this year because of it.
Their struggles are understandable when you look at their overall roster. While other tanking squads have dealt with serious injury issues (Memphis, Orlando, Chicago) the Kings haven’t had any serious problems on that front. Instead, they are just what they look like: a roster full of overpaid veterans and young talent with question marks.
For a team that has drafted in the lottery for 11-straight seasons, they sure don’t have much to show for it. While they have seven players on the roster between the ages of 20 and 24, none of them project to be blue chippers. Point guard De’Aaron Fox (11.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) has the highest ceiling among their prospects, but no one in this group is expected to make a serious leap in the next year or so. The fact that 36-year-old Zach Randolph leads this roster in points per game (14.9) speaks for itself in terms of where the team is from a scoring standpoint.
Opportunities for improvement this summer
While the Kings own their pick during this year’s draft, that situation changes next fall when it will be headed Boston or Philadelphia’s way via a pick swap. There will be no incentive for this group to be bad, but can this group dig themselves out of the NBA’s cellar? A look at their cap sheet shows it won’t be easy.
Their biggest chip for improvement will be their 2018 first-round pick. If that lands in the top-5, they will get a potential franchise-building block, but that’s no sure thing given the amount of tanking competition that surrounds them over the final 20 games of the year. From there, 12 current players are signed for next season, giving them less than $20 million to play with in projected salary cap room.
- Kawhi Leonard is reportedly on track to return to the lineup on Thursday for the Spurs, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. The timing couldn’t be better for San Antonio, which has struggled to stay afloat in the Western Conference in recent weeks. The Spurs have just a one-game cushion over the Jazz and Nuggets for one of the final playoff spots in crowded West.
- The injuries keep piling up for the Cavs as they try to hold onto the third seed in the East. Tristan Thompson (sprained ankle) and Cedi Osman (hip flexor) will be out for the next couple weeks, while Rodney Hood (back) could be sidelined for the next couple games as well. Kevin Love (hand) remains a couple weeks away from rejoining Cleveland for the stretch run. They hold just a one game lead over the Pacers for the No. 3 seed for the time being.
- Hamilton native Michael Carter-Williams will miss the rest of the regular season after undergoing shoulder surgery this past week. Another tough year of injury luck for the former Rookie of the Year. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
- After being warned by the league for violating its rest policy, the Chicago Bulls re-inserted veterans Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday into their starting five this past week. The NBA implemented the policy last season after several teams rested healthy veterans down the stretch of the year to improve their lottery odds.