The complexion of the East playoff race got a little bit more interesting the past couple weeks.
The defending Eastern Conference champions remade their team at the trade deadline and have won four straight games, which has helped them creep back into the top three. The Cavs still have a long road to climb to catch the Celtics for the second seed, but a floundering Celtics squad (6-9 in last 15) have made that a possibility if they can’t right the ship.
What needs to happen for the Celtics to hold off Cleveland? And how well do the Celtics have to play to catch the Raptors for the top seed and avoid a second-round showdown with LeBron James? Let’s examine the remaining schedules to handicap this race over the final two months of the year.
Current East standings
- Raptors 41-16
- Celtics 40-19 (2 GB)
- Cavs 34-22 (6.5 GB)
Head-to-head tiebreakers
- CLE owns tiebreaker over BOS (2-1)
- BOS is tied with TOR (1-1 with two games remaining, one in each city)
- TOR holds edge over CLE (1-0 lead with two games remaining)
Conference record standings (Second tiebreaker would be conference record if season series is tied)
- Raptors 25-7
- Cavs 25-12 (2.5 GB)
- Celtics 25-13 (3 GB)
Raptors (41-16)
Games remaining: 25 (Home: 13 Away: 12)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 16
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents: 8
Opponents’ winning percentage: .491 (18th toughest in NBA)
Analysis
The Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the NBA (seven-straight wins) and their schedule following the All-Star break indicates they shouldn’t be slowing down much over the next few weeks.
Outside of a home date with the Rockets on March 9th, their toughest matchups over the next 10 games are against the Bucks at home and a Wizards road game without John Wall to contend with.
Celtics (40-19)
Games remaining: 23 (Home: 9 Away: 14)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 13
Games against ‘’tanking’’ opponents: 9
Opponents’ winning percentage: .485 (22nd in NBA)
Analysis:
While the Celtics are tied for the most road games remaining in the NBA this year, that’s not necessarily a bad thing for this year’s group. They have a 19-8 record away from the TD Garden this year, which is the third-best mark in the league. The most daunting road trips will be coming up over the next month. Two tough Western Conference opponents (Houston, Minnesota) loom in the first week of March. A few weeks later, they’ll have a less challenging trip (Portland, Sacramento, Phoenix, Utah), but the bigger issue is that those four games in two time zones will be over just six days.
Brad Stevens
Cavs (34-22)
Games remaining: 26 (Home: 14 Away: 12)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 15
Games against ‘’tanking’’ teams: 9
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.477 (25th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
Remember that nightmare stretch for the Celtics in December when they had a game every other day for more than a month? That is what lies ahead for the Cavs in the final two months of the year. They are tied for second-most games remaining (26) in the NBA, a brutal schedule from a volume standpoint. They won’t have two days off between games until the last week of the season, which should make practice time tough to come by for the new-look squad.
Ty Lue
Final thoughts
The overwhelming odds favor all three of these teams remaining in their current spots in the East. Given the deficit involved and the remaining schedule, the Celtics have a better chance of catching the Raptors than the Cavs have of closing the gap on Boston, but that’s dependent on Boston returning to form following the All-Star break.
