How much of a shot do the Celtics have at landing Greg Monroe?

Veteran buyouts across the NBA usually occur after the trade deadline but the basketball world got a bit of a surprise on Wednesday night when Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Suns and Greg Monroe came to terms on a buyout.

The Suns have had the 6-foot-11 big man since they acquired him in November in the Eric Bledsoe deal. However, it appears they have exhausted all potential trade options for Monroe and his $17.8 million expiring contract over the past several weeks. With nothing available to their liking, the Suns agreed to let Monroe go now, giving him a headstart on finding his next team (while also potentially saving some real dough in the process).

League sources have confirmed to Bostonsportsjournal.com that the Celtics are one of several teams interested in Monroe’s services as a free agent. He won’t be officially available until Friday (when his contract clears waivers), but it’s not often a 27-year-old double-double machine in their prime hits the open market in the middle of the season. He has averaged 11.2 points and 8 rebounds in 23 minutes per game with the Suns this year.  

How strong are the Celtics’ chances of landing him? And who will be their biggest competition? Let’s explore Monroe’s situation to see the variables in play here.

Q: Do the Celtics have a realistic shot at Monroe?

A: Yes, mostly because of their disabled player exception. They can offer him up to $8.4 million over the remainder of the season, which is a huge chunk of change. That’s far more than any other playoff suitor can throw at him at this juncture.

Q: What are the drawbacks of picking Boston for Monroe then?

A: Big minutes could be tough to come by in Boston’s frontcourt. Brad Stevens likes to play small and that could keep Monroe as a bench role player (10-20 minutes per game) each night. While it’s probably enticing for Monroe to play for a team with a realistic chance at making the NBA Finals, he’s also playing for his next contract. It’s harder to convince teams around the league you are worth big money when you’re only getting limited minutes. The Celtics could clear out frontcourt help (Aron Baynes?) to give him a bigger role, but that’s a risky play for the C’s given their lack of frontcourt depth and Monroe’s iffy defense. The Georgetown product can rebound and score with the best of them down low, but he’s always been a lackluster defender in the NBA.

Q: What team(s) are the Celtics’ biggest competition for Monroe?

A: The Pelicans. As Wojnarowski reported Thursday afternoon, they are pitching him a starting role next to Anthony Davis. They have limited money to offer him (veteran’s minimum) but they can guarantee 30-plus minutes per game down there and that’s something Danny Ainge won’t be able to do in Boston. If Monroe cares about opportunity the most, New Orleans is definitely the most likely destination for him. The Pelicans also just added Nikola Mirotic via trade, but they still have next-to-no depth in the frontcourt with DeMarcus Cousins sidelined.

Q: What are other factors are in play?

A: The Celtics are certainly considering a number of different options right now with their disabled player exception and they are going to be proceed carefully with it. While Monroe will ultimately be the best big man out there on the free agent market this year, there could be other intriguing options available via the DPE that could fit this roster better. Monroe is a nice fit in theory and a big boost to this team’s rebounding, but the C’s front line hasn’t necessarily been a problem this year. The defense has been rock solid with Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis on the back line and it’s unlikely Monroe will work his way into the crunch time lineup next to Al Horford on most nights. If the C’s find a better fit for the DPE (via trade or buyout), they may be hesitant to pull the trigger right away on Monroe.  

On the other hand, the Celtics could try to sell Monroe on the prospect of a potential longer term commitment in Boston. They can only sign him for one year (for now), but by giving him $8 million for rest of season, they could use non-Bird Rights to sign him for that amount next year. In an offseason that has limited teams with cap room, that could be an intriguing sell for Monroe (as a potential replacement for Baynes in the Celtics lineup).

Q: Who is the favorite to land Monroe?

A: Pelicans have to be a solid favorite at this point, but look for the situation to be sorted out later this weekend, one way or another.