Countdown to Sox Spring: Rotation a strong point

This is part of a new BSJ series, designed to get you ready for spring training. Each day, we’ll take a look at a particular position and examine it from the major league level, evaluating depth at the position and looking ahead to some prospects in the minors.

TODAY: Starting pitching

OVERVIEW:  The Red Sox’ starting rotation finished eighth in ERA in all of baseball last season, but has the potential to be better in 2018. For one thing, the rotation will have a (presumably) healthy David Price from the start of the season, which should be a big boost. For another, Eduardo Rodriguez underwent knee surgery in the off-season to fix a chronic issue that resulted in his kneecap popping out of place in each of the last three seasons. Finally, Steven Wright, who missed most of last season with a knee injury of his own, is expected to be fully recovered for the start of the regular season.
The centerpiece of the rotation, of course, is Chris Sale, who led all of baseball in innings pitched and strikeouts in his first season with the Sox. A big emphasis this season will be placed on keeping him strong throughout the season to avoid the traditional drop-off he’s experienced in August and September.
If there’s a concern with the Sox rotation, it’s depth. While the Sox have six established major leaguers, they don’t have much beyond that. For now, Hector Velazquez is the most dependable depth arm in the organization.
Another concern: it’s possible that neither Wright nor Rodriguez will be available when the season starts. Wright faces possible disciplinary action from the commissioner’s office stemming from a domestic assault charge and Rodriguez could need more time to recover from his procedure.

STARTER: Chris Sale
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Signed for $12.5 million for 2018
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2019 season
NOTABLE 2017 STATS: 17-8/2.90 ERA/214.1 IP…Posted a 0.98 WHIP…held opponents to  a 2.08 batting average…led majors with 308 strikeouts
ASSESSMENT: Sale was everything the Sox could have hoped for in his first season with the Sox. He was the prototypical power pitcher and displayed superb control, issuing just 41 walks in 214.1 innings. The trick will be to figure out how to have Sale fresher in the final two months of the season and into the playoffs. But he remains a legitimate No. 1 starter.

STARTER:  David Price
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Signed for $30 million for 2018
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2022; can opt-out after 2018
NOTABLE 2017 STATS:  6-3/3.38 ERA/74.2 IP…Made just 11 starts after two long stints on the DL with elbow issues…Pitched well in relief in September and in the playoffs.
ASSESSMENT: Price could well hold the key to the Red Sox’ rotation’s success in 2018. If he’s healthy and can provide 30 or so starts, the Sox will be that much stronger. He certainly appeared healthy when he pitched in relief toward the end of the season, and took to the role well. But the Sox aren’t paying him $30 million to pitch out of the bullpen; they want innings and starts from him. And there will continue to be questions about the durability of his elbow until Price proves otherwise.

STARTER: Rick Porcello
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Signed for $21 million for 2018
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2019 season
NOTABLE 2017 STATS: 11-17/4.65 ERA/ 162.1 IP…allowed 38 homers in 33 starts and yielded 216 hits…was often victim of poor run support, with no runs scored in 10 of his 17 losses.
ASSESSMENT: Porcello needs a bounce-back season in 2019. He may not ever again have a season like the one he had in 2017 when he won A.L. Cy Young award, but he needs to much improved over last year. The presence of Sale and Price means he doesn’t have to be a front-of-the-rotation guy, but he does need to cut down on the long balls allowed and keep the Sox in games more often. He recently talked about the importance of better locating his two-seam and four-seam fastballs.

STARTER: Drew Pomeranz
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Agreed to $8.5 million before arbitration
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2018 season
NOTABLE 2017 STATS:  17-6/3.32 ERA/173.2 IP…Pomeranz established career highs in wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched. ..Seemed to up his game against better teams, going 6-1 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 starts against teams which reached the post-season….Got better as season progressed, with a 2.84 ERA after May 20.
ASSESSMENT:  Pomeranz finally became the pitcher the Red Sox hoped he would become when they traded for him. His season started with an injury cloud (forearm strain) left over from the previous season, but he enjoyed his best season. He’ll have plenty of motivation to match or top last season, since he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the year. For now, he’s the perfect middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Sox.

STARTER: Eduardo Rodriguez
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Agreed to $2.375 million before arbitration
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2021 season
NOTABLE 2017 STATS:  6.7/4.19/137.1 IP)…Set career highs in starts, innings and strikeouts…Posted a 9.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio…Pitched slightly better (3.99 ERA) on the road compared to Fenway.
ASSESSMENT: It’s somewhat surprising that Rodriguez won’t turn 25 until April, since he’s been a part of the Red Sox’ rotation in each of the last three seasons. If Rodriguez’s knee is sufficiently healed, he could be positioned for his best season. If nothing else, he can pitch with more confidence, knowing that the knee should be more stable.

STARTER: Steven Wright
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Agreed to $1.1 million before arbitration
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2020 season
NOTABLE 2017 STATS: 1-3/8.25 ERA/24 IP…made only five starts before undergoing knee surgery…allowed nine homers in just 24 innings pitched.
ASSESSMENT: Last year was essentially a lost season for Wright. The beginning of this year will be clouded by two issues: his physical readiness after knee surgery last May, and the looming threat of a suspension, stemming from his arrest last winter.  Once those two issues are behind him, Wright should provide an experienced arm for the sixth spot. When everyone is healthy and available, he might have to pitch out of the bullpen to start the season.

DEPTH: Hector Velazquez
CONTRACTUAL STATUS: Not yet arbitration eligible; 2018 salary TBD
ELIGIBLE FOR FREE AGENCY: After 2023 season
NOTABLE 2017 STATS:  3-1/2.92 ERA/24.2 IP…appeared in eight games – three of them starts – for the Sox in 2017…Had a rough debut, but pitched to a 0.92 ERA after that…Unscored upon in five relief appearances.
ASSESSMENT: Velazquez is the primary depth option in the organization, and with questions surrounding both Rodriguez and Wright at the start of the season, there’s the possibility that he could open the season in the rotation.

FUTURE: Jason Groome
NOTABLE 2017 STATS: 3-9/5.69 ERA/55.1 IP
SCOUTING REPORT:  Groome was the Red Sox’ first-round selection in the 2016 draft and is widely considered to be the top pitching prospect in the Boston organization. His first full pro season was compromised by some injuries and off-field family issues, so he didn’t develop as much as the Sox would have liked in 2017. Groome is a big, physical specimen with a plus-plus curveball, and a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but needs a third pitch to fill out his repertoire. At 19, he still has some developing to do, but he’s got time, too. A potential top-of-the-rotation starter.

FUTURE:  Tanner Houck
NOTABLE 2017 STATS: 0-3/3.63 ERA/22.1 IP
SCOUTING REPORT: If Groome is considered the top starter in the system, then Houck isn’t far behind – with the added benefit of having pitched in college, putting him ahead developmentally.  He’s as tall as Groome, but more lanky in his build. Additionally, he doesn’t have a dominant breaking ball to go with his mid-90s fastball, but that could still come.