If you were searching for a reason to believe the Jaguars are a threat to beat the Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game (something I will not be doing) it would start with the following question:
Can the Patriots consistently beat man coverage, something they did not do in the final month of the season? Because the Titans game certainly didn't answer that.
The Patriots, at least how they are currently constituted with players (Chris Hogan, James White) just back into the lineup, are still unproven against man coverage. The Titans, as we feared, played mostly zone coverage against the Patriots until the game got out of hand. And Tom Brady absolutely and predictably ripped through Dick LeBeau's defense again.
Here are Brady's stats against both zone and man coverage vs. the Titans up to the Tennessee 19-yard line (the red zone is largely a different animal than the rest of the field) and until the score was 35-7, when the Patriots changed out personnel:
A few additional notes on this:
- Brady completed 12 straight passes at one point against zone coverage.
- Rob Gronkowski accounted for three of the eight completions vs. man coverage, and he also drew a penalty on another play.
- Danny Amendola had three catches -- including the circus cross-field reception -- vs. man.
- Dion Lewis (31-yard screen) and White (14-yard option route) had the other catches vs. man coverage.
- So that was the extent of the Patriots' targets vs. man coverage: Gronkowski, Amendola and the running backs.
Here are the positional ratings against the Titans:
Quarterback (4.5 out of 5)
The week off did the Old Man a lot of good. Probably Brady's best game since the Oakland matchup (Week 11), and I think you could draw a direct line to him having the week off prior to taking on the Titans. It also had to give him comfort to have Chris Hogan and White back on the field, and not Kenny Britt and Phillip Dorsett. Comfort level was much improved. ... He was a little skittish in the pocket on the first two drives, but Brady was lights out after that. ... For the game, I had him for 11 plus plays and only four minus, which is astonishing considering he dropped back 54 times. As we outlined above, it wasn't exactly the most taxing game for him in terms of a coverage matchup, but he still made some money throws, including on four incompletions and another drop (Gronkowski). ... I think it surprised Brady how much zone the Titans played because on the first two drives he had players open quickly but didn't take the easy money. ... Brady showed how much he was in the zone on unscripted scramble throws to White (incomplete/drop) and Amendola (across the field on third down). He was definitely feeling it.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Lewis wasn't spectacular in this game – the line and tempo helped to open a lot of holes — but he was pretty good, as there were times when he made something out of nothing. The 31-yard screen pass was a fantastic design and call by Josh McDaniels as the double action to the backside by Gronkowski and Cooks had four Titans players chasing ghosts.
Receivers (3.5 out of 5)
Gronkowski and Amendola were terrific — two more players who probably benefited from the week off — but the rest were a mixed bag. Gronkowski is just an impossible cover one-on-one. If it's possible, he's gotten better at posting up and now doesn't come close to offensive pass interference. He's obviously been tutored that he doesn't even need to push off. ... Amendola's legs looked tired in the final month, but his cuts were as quick as ever off the bye week. Will be interesting to see if his legs continue to have pop this week ... Cooks continues to be an enigma. Had the deep drop on a perfectly thrown pass from Brady, and had the miscue in the end zone. At least immediately recognized his mistake.
Offensive line (5 out of 5)
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Linebackers (5 out of 5)
Probably the group I was most worried about in this game, but thanks to a lot of 3-4 against the Titans' running game, the linebackers were free to roam and make plays. ... Everyone was excellent and there were no errors, not even a missed tackle. ... Marquis Flowers continues to be terrific in whatever role they ask.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
A mixed bag from everyone. There was some sensational play, and errors by the entire group. Like Stephon Gilmore prevented two completions, but he appeared to have another communications error in zone coverage when Delanie Walker was wide open for 36 yards. Looks like the Patriots were in Cover 3 and Walker went into Gilmore's territory, but he flashed to the flat. Could have been Patrick Chung's error, but appeared it was on Gilmore:
THREE UP
Tom Brady: Back to his old self with a week off and a lot of zone coverage. After a slow start, he was on point and much more accurate than he has been in recent weeks.
Rob Gronkowski: Made four outstanding catches was completely reliable against man coverage. He'll need to do more of the same this week.
Adam Butler: Has settled into his role as a sub rusher in recent weeks and when he's not getting sacks of his own, he often has initial pressure to setup someone else.
THREE DOWN
Brandin Cooks: Puzzling that with each passing week, when you think he should be getting more comfortable, he seems to have more issues getting in sync with Brady.
Malcolm Butler: Wasn't bad by any stretch, but two touchdowns allowed are two touchdowns allowed.
Special teams: Four penalties are unacceptable in the postseason.