The Cavs are at a crossroads in their quest to return to the NBA Finals for the fourth straight season. They’ve plummeted in the standings over the last few weeks and have lost fought straight games, and eight of 11 overall. Those struggles have allowed the Celtics to build an imposing seven-game lead for the top see in the East with just 40 games to play.
The dynamics of the Cavs’ on-court struggles are interesting. The offense is still elite (fifth in NBA), but the defense has plummeted to 28th overall. This group can’t stop anyone and isn’t scoring enough to make up for that fact lately. These developments don’t have the national media concerned just yet about the state of the three-time defending Eastern Conference champions, and that’s understandable to a degree. LeBron-led teams have faltered at various times of the regular season over the past three years, losing six of eight last January and dropping to sub .500 at one point during January 2015 (19-20 overall) before cruising through the East in the postseason.
Will history repeat itself this year or do the problems go deeper than normal? And if so, do the Cavs have the resources to fix themselves this time around? Let’s take a look at why this year might be the exception rather than the norm.Where’s the defense?
The Cavs have had subpar defenses in past seasons (18th, 10th, 21st finishes in team defense over last three years), but they’ve reached a scary low halfway through the 2017-18 season, allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions (29th overall). Outside of not sending opponents to the free throw line often, the numbers indicate they don’t do much of anything well defensively. They are in the bottom-five of the league in field goal defense, defensive rebounding and turnovers forced. They allow teams to shoot more 3-pointers than any team in the league and opponents hit 37 percent of them (third-worst defensive mark). All of these numbers have come despite playing the third easiest schedule in the league to date.
There have been effort issues and injury issues (Iman Shumpert remains out, Tristan Thompson missed significant time) but a look up-and-down the roster makes the defensive woes seem like an issue that’s not going away. Jae Crowder and J.R. Smith have both been lackluster wing defenders. Kyle Korver is routinely abused on the defensive end at age 35. Dwyane Wade lacks the discipline and energy to defend on most nights. Jeff Green has never been one to be trusted on the defensive end (as we saw in Boston). LeBron James is playing at an MVP level on offense, but he’s carrying so much of the load on that end without adequate secondary options (no more Kyrie Irving, Isaiah isn't Isaiah yet) that his defensive effort has been subpar on many nights. That’s evident in the team’s defensive numbers, as they allow eight more points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Up front, the problems continue. Kevin Love is having a productive year on the offensive end, but the Cavs are actually being outscored when he’s on the floor due to a team-worst 112 defensive rating for the aging big man. He can’t stick with quicker big men, he gets abused regularly in the pick-and-roll and he’s not a rim protector during his minutes at center, leaving a vulnerable back line of defense. Thompson has always been the defensive minded big, but the Cavs have floundered offensively (team-worst 102 offensive rating) when he’s on the court, giving Ty Lue no good options most nights. Channing Frye did play well with Thompson out, but the veteran big has been relegated to the bench most nights with both back in the lineup. His defense has always been a question mark at the center spot as well.
Factor in the worst potential defensive point guard rotation in the league (Jose Calderon, Derrick Rose, Isaiah Thomas) and you have the makings of a horrific defensive team. While this team has been awful on defense all year, it’s also not a coincidence that the Cavs’ worst defensive performance of the year came in two games that Thomas was playing in (@ Minnesota, @ Toronto).
How do the Cavs turn things around?
A few things will help on that front. Shumpert is their best wing defender and should return at some point in February after undergoing left knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. If he recovers fully, he’ll undoubtedly provide a major upgrade over Crowder/Smith in crunch time lineups based on the way that duo has played this year.
There’s also the possibility for improvement on the offensive end once Thomas regains his form. He’s been understandably rusty over the last week (5-of-26 over last two games) and that has obviously dragged on the Cavs offense, leading to a couple blowouts with their woeful defense in those performances. He will get better and that should help take some of the playmaking onus off James on the offensive end. Thomas probably won’t be able to return to elite form from last year but even 70 percent of that is an upgrade over Calderon.
What about trade solutions?
There’s also the possibility of a trade to shake things up. Shams Charania of the Vertical reported last week that the Cavs were listening to offers on Thompson, but he’s overpaid at $16.4 million and a one dimensional player on offense. It’s hard to see him fetching much of anything. He’s also one of the few pieces that can play defense and rebound. A look up and down the roster makes it hard to find any player with decent trade value outside of James and Love. Smith, Shumpert and Frye are overpaid. Crowder’s trade value has plummeted with his disappointing play on both ends. Thomas isn’t going to get you much on an expiring deal. After that, the rest of the roster consists of young pieces who aren’t ready to contribute yet (Cedi Osman, Ante Zizic) or aging veterans on minimum deals (Wade, Calderon, Green, Rose).
With little to offer on the player front, the big trade chip clearly is the unprotected 2018 Brooklyn pick for Cavs general manager Koby Altman. The Nets are doing a bit better than expected, making the pick look like it will fall in the 7-10 range, which is probably a little lower than the team envisioned when they traded for it in August. Ultimately though, with no promises from James about the future beyond this season, it’s hard to see them moving it for anything short of an elite contributor, and I just don’t think anyone like that is going to be on the market in the next month. Oklahoma City appears committed to keeping Paul George. DeAndre Jordan is reportedly available in Los Angeles but giving up a lottery pick for him on an expiring deal seems foolish anyway.
There are also money issues in Cleveland, as the Cavs are well into the repeater tax this year, limiting their financial flexibility. They already dumped Richard Jefferson for money reasons, so adding to the roster without dumping money elsewhere is not going to be appealing to ownership. That makes the situation even trickier for Altman as he tries to improve this group. Any dollar he spends right now on additional salary costs owner Dan Gilbert upwards of four dollars due to the repeater tax.
Ultimately, it’s just hard to see this team challenging the Warriors in any form this year, no matter what move they make. More importantly, beating the likes of the Raptors or Celtics in the playoffs could be a stiff challenge unless Thomas can return to his 2016-17 form (far from a sure thing). James has earned the right to be the favorite in the East until further notice, but he has a lot less help this year than ever before. Right now this is a team that will be looking for big things out of the likes of Wade and Green this spring, and that’s not a recipe for success in the postseason at this stage of their careers.
Unless the supporting cast turns things around and Thomas steps up, I just don’t see the answers for this group this year, meaning the Celtics’ window of opportunity to get to the NBA Finals could be opening a bit sooner than anticipated.
Other News and Notes
- R.J. Hunter is back in the NBA on a two-way with the Houston Rockets. The shooting guard will take the slot of a former Celtic in Demetrius Jackson, who was waived by Houston on Friday.
- Pretty laughable trade proposal from the Clippers last week via Michael Scotto of Basketball Insiders, who noted that Los Angeles offered Blake Griffin in a deal for Karl-Anthony Towns that was quickly shot down. I guess it never hurts to ask, but it is not ideal for the Clippers to ask about a player you have no chance at obtaining, while also opening up your team to some backlash from Griffin on his named being involved trade rumors. He just signed a five-year deal this summer.
- Zach LaVine made his season debut for the Bulls on Saturday night, scoring 14 points in a win. He should help improve their long odds for a playoff spot in the East.
- The Clippers and Lou Williams are reportedly talking about a contract extension via Shams Charania. He was a potentially trade candidate early in the year, but the Clippers have pieced things together in the last few weeks so I wouldn’t expect him to be available.