When digging into Titans film, a few things stand out:
- The offensive line, as a group, is playing very well. They may not be the most athletic group in the world, but they're physical and play with good technique. With Hall of Fame player Russ Grimm as their coach, this is not a surprise.
- Outside of running back, Marcus Mariota's feet and tight end Delanie Walker, the Titans are devoid of weapons. No one else gets separation and they are easily defended.
- On both sides of the ball, the schemes are old, staid and from another NFL era under the direction of two veteran coaches: offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie (35 years as an NFL coach) and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau (46 years). Both sides of the ball need to be brought up to the modern game. The Titans' victory over the Chiefs. was probably the worst-case scenario for general manager Jon Robinson, who now seems to be forced into keeping coach Mike Mularkey and his two coordinators. The Titans' coaching staff needs a complete revamp, and an infusion of Patriots brainpower (Josh McDaniels) was needed. Now, it will be more of the same.
OFFENSE
Scheme
Robiskie is a veteran coach, but it appears his scheme and play sheet has evolved from his time with the Los Angeles Raiders in the 1980s to early '90s. The Titans have had some success with the no-huddle offense, and the players have been calling for the coaches to use it more to accentuate Mariota's strengths. That would be a good wrinkle for this this game. For the season, the Titans are 23rd in total offense (314.0 per game), 15th in rushing (114.6), 23rd in passing yards per game (199.4), 29th in interception rate (3.4 percent), 18th in sacks allowed (7.1 percent), 25th in third downs (35.2 percent), 19th in red zone (52.5) and 19th in points per game (20.9).
Quarterbacks
No. 8 Marcus Mariota (6-4, 222, 4.56 in 40): The second overall pick in the '15 draft is uber talented, but he hasn't played that way this season. Some of that is due to injuries (he's healthy as he's been this season) and the scheme is not a good fit for him. He does seem to play better when the tempo is fast, which goes back to his college experience at Oregon. He is very smart and can decipher coverages, but his arm is not the same this season (likely from bad habits developed during injuries) and his passes tend to die. He is not very accurate deep and outside the numbers. If the Titans have a chance, he has to make a lot of throws to the outside.
16 Matt Cassel (6-4, 228): The former Patriot backup is crafty, but he's not winning any games in relief against his former team.
Receivers
84 Corey Davis (6-3, 209, 4.45): The surprised fifth overall pick out of Western Michigan plays like a rookie, as he is unsure of his route running and doesn't love contact. Can be roughed up. Has caught only 34 of 64 targets from Mariota, whose passer rating to Davis is 51.2.
87 Eric Decker (6-3, 214, 4.55): The former Jet and Bronco has not taken off with the Titans, as he led the team with five drops in the regular season and hand another against the Chiefs (he also had a touchdown). No longer gets separation. Has caught 49 of 76 targets for 88.8 passer rating. Mariota has throws five of his 15 interceptions at Decker.
18 Rishard Matthews (6-0, 217, 4.47): Former Dolphin has been a flop in this scheme. Can't get separation and doesn't threaten the deep part of the field as a boundary receiver. Has caught 50 of 75 targets for 89.9 passer rating.
13 Taywan Taylor (5-11, 203, 4.51): A deep target on occasion. Has caught 16 of 25 passes for 90.6 passer rating.
Tight ends
82 Delanie Walker (6-2, 248, 4.49): The passing offense almost exclusively runs through him, so expect the Patriots to try to erase him with a variety of coverages and players. He's still a good athlete and has good hands. Has caught 70 of 98 targets for 91.9 passer rating.
81 Jonnu Smith (6-3, 248, 4.63): Secondary passing tight end with 13 catches on 23 targets. Not a good blocker.
89 Phillip Supernaw (6-5, 255): Average blocker. Nothing in passing game.
88 Luke Stocker (6-5, 253, 4.79): Best blocking tight end. They all play.
Offensive line
77 LT Taylor Lewan (6-7, 309): Massive player who is probably the best pass blocker, but he can be beaten with quickness. Grabs a lot and has been walking a line in terms of getting holding calls.
67 LG Quinton Spain (6-4, 330): Had an outstanding run blocking game against the Chiefs because he executed the double-team blocks to the second level expertly. Titans run the best to the left side of the line.
60 C Ben Jones (6-3, 308): Ranks in the top third of the league in centers but he struggles with power at times in the pass game.
64 RG Josh Kline (6-3, 300): Former Patriot played a perfect game against the Chiefs. Not the most powerful run blocker, but very good in pass protection.
78 RT Jack Conklin (6-6, 308): Powerful run blocker but he's a tad light in the pass game and can be moved around. Would like to see Deatrich Wise use his length against Conklin. Could give him a lot of trouble.
Dennis Kelly is the tackle backup and is a big step down. Brian Schwenke backs up the interior and is a solid veteran at all three spots.
Running backs
22 Derrick Henry (6-3, 247, 4.53): The Alabama product is a load and ran with much better authority against the Chiefs. But he needs room to get his big body moving (similar to LeGarrette Blount). If the line gives him room, Henry can be trouble. Won't make his own holes.
32 David Fluellen (5-11, 224): Brings a little bit more quickness but isn't a threat in the run or pass. Can only give Henry a breather once in a while.
DEFENSE
Scheme
Everybody knows about LeBeau, a Hall of Famer who is one of the godfathers of the zone blitz scheme. His defense has played much more man coverage the past two seasons. The Titans rank eighth in yards per play (5.0), fourth in rushing (3.6), 13th in passing yards per play (5.9), 13th in sack rate (7.1 percent), eighth on third down (36.5), 10th in the red zone (48.2) and 17th in points (22.3).
Defensive line
99 RE Jurrell Casey (6-1, 305): One of the best interior players in the league. He is quick and powerful, and he is great against the run and the pass. Had six sacks and 35 QB pressures.
96 NT Sylvester Williams (6-2, 313): Can be moved in the running game, and he brings zero pass rush.
94 LE Austin Johnson (6-4, 314): A run-first player with little pass rush.
97 Sub Karl Klug (6-3, 278): Savvy veteran who does a little bit of everything, including dropping into coverage.
Linebackers
99 ROLB Brian Orakpo (6-4, 257): Still an excellent player on the edge. Strength is his best asset. Will test Nate Solder. Second on the team with 7 sacks, but is the clear leader with 73 QB pressures.
59 RILB Wesley Woodyard (6-0, 233): Excellent instinctive linebacker against the run but he does not run as well as he used to and is weak in coverage.
54 LILB Avery Williamson (6-1, 246): Strictly a run player; comes off for Brown in passing situations. Look for the Patriots to target Rob Gronkowski on early down to take advantage of Williamson.
91 LOLB Derrick Morgan (6-4, 261): Long and strong, Morgan is a tough block and is especially adept on T/E stunts. Led team with 7.5 sacks.
55 Coverage Jayon Brown (6-0, 226): Fast but undersized. This might not be a game for him, and I wonder if they go more with a three-safety look with Cyprien dropping into LB role.
93 Rush Erik Walden (6-2, 250): Smart veteran who will bring something against the run and the pass.
Secondary
25 CB Adoree' Jackson (5-10, 186, 4.41): Undersized ballhawk who broke up a team-high 23 passes. Gets a little bit lost on crossing routes.
26 CB/Slot Logan Ryan (5-11, 195, 4.53): Former Patriot will drop into the slot in nickel. Solid but not spectacular. Good tackler. Neither of the top two corners had an interception in the regular season.
33 3rd CB Tye Smith (6-0, 195, 4.60): Struggles at times, especially in zone coverage. Look for the Patriots to target him on double moves.
31 FS Kevin Byard (5-11, 212, 4.52): An All-Pro this season with eight interceptions and 18 passes defensed. A tremendous athlete who actually might have a chance at somewhat slowing Gronkowski down in man coverage.
37 SS Johnathan Cyprien (6-0, 223, 4.50): Weak link when he has to be the deep safety, so look for the Patriots to manipulate coverage with motion to get that. He's pretty good in man coverage and could also be a good matchup for Gronkowski in man.
23 XCB Brice McCain (5-9, 190, 4.35): Former Dolphin doesn't play very much with the emergence of Jackson.
21 3rd S Da'Norris Searcy (5-11, 207, 4.56): Could be an x-factor in this game if LeBeau throws a curveball and uses three safeties. An underrated player back to his Buffalo days.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Brett Kerns has a big leg (49.7 average) and has only five touchbacks on the season.
K Ryan Succop is perfect from under 40 yards, but just 18 of 25 over 40.
Adoree Jackson returns all the kicks and is moderately dangerous (no touchdowns). Fumbled a punt vs. KC.
41 Brynden Trawick is the best special teams player and must be accounted for on returns.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Go fast: LeBeau will try to do some designer blitzes because the point of his scheme is to get his best rushers (Orakpo, Morgan) matched up against the backs in protection. Don't even give them a chance. And if the Patriots go fast, there's a better chance the Titans default into zone coverage and then it's game over.
Double Jurrell Casey: He's the one guy that could make Brady's life tough with interior pressure and he has a mismatch against Joe Thuney. Give him a lot of help.
Don't push the issue through the air: One of the only ways the Titans stay in this game is with turnovers. There will be opportunities to just dump the play down to the backs. Take the easy money and let them make plays.
PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Do not let Mariota out of the pocket: On early downs, the edge rushers can't go by the quarterback, and on passing downs, let Marquis Flowers continue to be a dynamite spy. Whatever it takes, don't let Mariota pick up cheap first downs with his surprising speed (he's faster than he appears).
Take away Delanie Walker: He's the entire Titans passing game. If the Patriots eliminate him, the Titans will have a tough time running the ball.
Wall up the run vs. Derrick Henry: Henry isn't much of a cutback runner, but he does run with good power if he gets a little room to run. Don't let it happen. Expect a 3-4 defense with the linebackers attacking the gap but not penetrating. Henry won't have anywhere to go.
PICK
Line: Patriots by 13.5. O/U: 48. Season: 12-4, 7-8-1 ATS.
The Titans are not untalented and they could hang for a bit if they throw the kitchen sink at the Patriots (Mike Mularkey does love his trick plays), but they just don't have the creativity on both sides of the ball to threaten the Patriots.
Patriots 45, Titans 9.