The NBA trade deadline is earlier than usual this year (February 8th), which means we should start to see the rumor mill heating up in the coming weeks as the hierarchy of the league starts to stabilize halfway through the regular season.
The Celtics will obviously be active on the trade and/or buyout market with their $8.4 million disabled player exception and other assets. Who will Danny Ainge and his lieutenants be talking to as the deadline approaches? Let’s investigate which teams may be eager to dump some veteran pieces in the coming weeks and which names should be available on said teams.
Probable sellers
Atlanta Hawks: This team made half of their offseason signings with a firesale in mind for this month. There is plenty of useful veteran talent here on expiring contracts playing for the worst team in the league. With the race for the top lottery odds expected to be close, you can count on shooting guard Marco Belinelli ($6.6 million), power forward Ersan Ilyasova ($6 million) and power forward Luke Babbitt ($1.9 million) being offered to the highest bidders. Center DeWayne Dedmon has a player option ($6.3 million) for next season that might make him a little tougher to move, but that’s a reasonable price for the 28-year-old center. None of these guys are guaranteed to move, but I’d expect at least one or two of them to be traded. Atlanta might not be able to fetch more than a second round pick or two for each, but that’s better than nothing for a team that needs a lose more to guarantee a potential franchise player in this loaded draft.
Sacramento Kings: The roster is loaded with young players on rookie deals who aren’t likely to get dealt, but overpriced veterans are standing in the way of playing time for said youngsters. Vince Carter ($8 million) is on an expiring deal and should be looking for a way out via trade or buyout. The Kings will surely be offering up Kosta Koufos ($8.3 million) and Garrett Temple ($8 million), but both of them have player options next year that will prevent the Kings from garnering any other meaningful assets in exchange. Zach Randolph and George Hill can still play, but their pricy multi-year deals make them unlikely to go anywhere without the Kings including an asset in the deal. All things considered, Carter is the best bet to go.
Memphis Grizzlies: The longer Mike Conley takes to return, the likelier it is that general manager Chris Wallace gives up on any slim playoff hopes this year. With Conley, Marc Gasol and Chandler Parsons all on max deals, payroll management is going to be a challenge for future years, so expiring contracts will be shopped since these guys likely won’t be retained. Tyreke Evans ($3.3 million), in the midst of a career year, should top the list. He’s playing well enough to potentially fetch a protected first round pick from an aggressive general manager. Always-injured Brandan Wright ($5.6 million), who once played a handful of games for the Celtics, will be available for next-to-nothing. Swingman Tyler Ennis ($3.3 million) should be on the block for a second-round pick as well. Memphis will also happily dump underwhelming Ben McLemore and his $5.4 million salary for next year.
Orlando Magic: The problem for the new braintrust in Florida is that there simply isn’t much they’d want to sell. The season has quickly gone into the tank after a 6-2 start, and the cap sheet is full of toxic deals. Terrence Ross ($10 million) and Bismack Biyombo ($17 million) are under contract for the next couple years and each is extremely overpaid. Nikola Vucevic ($12 million) is hurt. End of the roster pieces making small money (sub $5 million) like Mario Hezonja, Arron Afflalo and Mo Speights will be shopped, but none have any meaningful trade value. The Magic also have big decisions to make on a pair of upcoming restricted free agents in Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. The guess here is Gordon isn’t going anywhere, but Payton might be dealt now if the Magic decide they aren’t interested in retaining him anyway. All things considered, they should be busy.
Phoenix Suns: There are only two expiring contracts on the roster right now in Greg Monroe ($13.3 million) and Alex Len ($4.2 million). Monroe is almost guaranteed to be dealt or bought out, while Len has a no-trade clause, making his future a bit more hazy. The rest of the roster is full of young players on rookie deals or overpaid veterans on bloated contracts (Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley) who no other teams will take without additional compensation. They’d obviously look to tank, but there’s just not a lot to move here unless it’s rearranging some young talent.
Dallas Mavericks: A horrific start to the season should be too much for this group to overcome in their quest to get Dirk Nowitzki back to the postseason. With 11 players on the roster making $5 million or less and nearly all of those guys on expiring deals, pretty much anyone could be had on this team for the right price (outside of Dirk and a rookie like Dennis Smith Jr.). J.J. Barea, Devin Harris, Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell could each help a playoff team as a bench piece. Nerlens Noel should be available as well (due to his lack of playing time) since he’ll likely waive his no-trade clause if he thinks he’s going to get opportunity elsewhere. This should be one of the more active teams overall.
Los Angeles Lakers: There’s obviously no incentive to lose, but this team is probably getting blown up at the end of the regular season anyway. They’ll be working the phones to try to clear out some expiring deals (Corey Brewer, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brook Lopez) if they fetch any meaningful future assets. Brewer has no real trade value though, and the big salaries of Caldwell-Pope ($17 million) and Lopez ($22 million) will make any deal tough to work out math-wise since the Lakers won’t want to take on future salary.
Potential sellers depending on how the next month goes:
Utah Jazz: Still in the mix for a playoff spot, but they have a couple medium sized expiring contracts in Derrick Favors ($12 million) and Joe Johnson ($10 million) that could be in demand on the trade market. Johnson is unlikely to be retained in free agency, so he could push to be moved or bought out.
Chicago Bulls: This team is closer to a playoff spot than the bottom of the East after a hot month. With most of their players under long-term reasonable deals, there aren’t many clear-cut selling candidates here, outside of Nikola Mirotic.
Brooklyn Nets: No incentive to lose and not a lot to sell. Only a couple expiring deals as well in Joe Harris, Tyler Zeller and their newly acquired Sixers pieces (Jahlil Okafor, Nik Statuskas). They'll take a bad contract for the right price but not a lot here for playoff contenders to be interested in.
Charlotte Hornets: No appealing expiring deals and the front office has a mandate to win, so don’t expect any selling at the trade deadline.
Final thoughts:
Due to a flattening salary cap next year, look for a lot of the names mentioned here to simply be bought out around or after the trade deadline, rather than traded. A few will fetch a first round pick, some guys will fetch second round picks, but a lot aren’t even worth that much. It should create for a very active buyout market this February in addition to a busy trade deadline.
Odds and Ends
- Old friend James Young signed a two-way deal with the Sixers on Friday. No word yet if he’ll be with the team as they head to London for a matchup with his former mates on Thursday.
- How about the play of Gerald Green since signing with the Rockets a week back? He’s averaging 16.8 points per game thus far, including 29 against the Warriors on Thursday night. Kind of crazy it took this long for some NBA team to give him a shot this year with his shotmaking ability.
- The Lakers released veteran center Andrew Bogut on Saturday. The play of Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis in the middle for the Celtics this year make me think that the Celtics will pass on him as a potential end-of-the-bench addition.