Bedard's Breakdown: Bills game latest example of why Tom Brady needs his weapons back

Despite the end results -- an average of 27 points per game this month -- the Patriots’ offense has not exactly been purring like a fine-tuned automobile as the regular season draws to a close.

Against the Bills on Sunday, the Patriots had 16 points entering the final minute of the third quarter. That’s the same number they had into the fourth quarter against the Steelers. The Patriots had 10 points entering the fourth quarter in the loss at Miami. And they had nine points at halftime at Buffalo in Week 13.

Compare that to the month of December last season, without an injured Rob Gronkowski:

Week 13: 23 points through three quarters vs. Rams.
Week 14: 23 points through three quarters vs. Ravens.
Week 15: 13 points through three quarters at Denver against the league’s top defense.
Week 16: 34 points through three quarters vs. Jets.

Even if you wanted to accuse me of cherry-picking my numbers (I still think it’s valid to do so, considering the score at those junctures) and totaled the Patriots’ points through three quarters in their last four games prior to the finale, you still wind up with an average of 18 points per game to close ’17. In ’16, it was 23.3.

And when you throw in Tom Brady’s five-game streak with an interception, you start to wonder: What’s going on?

I didn’t think all that much of it until I saw the pressure numbers allowed by the offensive line against the Bills: five total quarterback pressures in 40 dropbacks. That’s a season-low percentage of 12.5 percent. Only the victory over the Broncos (18.4 percent) was remotely close.

Normally when he’s that well-protected, Brady rips through the opposing defense.

Maybe you think he did on Sunday. If you want to just take Brady’s stats (75 percent completions for 224 yards and a decent 7.82 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt) and just move on and ignore me, I don’t blame you. It’s not like he was bad or anything.

But something feels off. On the first third down of the game, he threw wide of Jacob Hollister. There was the interception. He didn’t see an open Danny Amendola on another play. Gronkowski bailed Brady out a couple times, including on the one-handed touchdown. Brady overthrew an open Brandin Cooks on one pass, and then severely underthrew him on another that drew a pass interference penalty (not in the stats).

Maybe I’m fretting about nothing. Maybe I’m inventing something that’s not there. I don’t know. I’m not going to discount that. But I’m just used to seeing Brady and this offense operating a bit more efficiently down the stretch.

I compared this year’s average through three quarters in Weeks 13-16 to previous seasons since 2008. The bad news is the Patriots have never advanced to a Super Bowl averaging 18.0 points or fewer (they lost in the AFC Championship Game in ’12 and ’13 averaged 17.8 and 15.5, respectively). The good news is the Patriots won a Super Bowl in ’14 averaging 18.8 points. That team did, however, had a better defense. The ’14 defense finished the season ranked 13^th in weighted defense at FootballOutsiders.com (it’s adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important; it better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season). This year’s unit is 22nd in weighted defense.



I’m not saying the Patriots can’t go to or win a Super Bowl this season. What I am saying is the Patriots need to get some people back, especially on offense.

Against the Bills, Brady’s most targeted receivers were Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Cooks, Amendola, Dwayne Allen, Hollister and Kenny Britt. The last three have 35 total targets between them.

A year ago, it was a completely different group: Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Hogan, James White and Martellus Bennett.

Which group would you want to be throwing to if you were Brady?

Mitchell returning to practice on Wednesday for the first time this season was a very good sign. He’s a player Brady developed immense trust in last season. Getting Hogan and White back from injury would be huge as well.

Give Brady a group of Gronkowski, Hogan, Cooks, Mitchell, Amendola, White and Lewis, and suddenly the Patriots are a much different offense and much more potent.

Until that happens, however, these games are going to continue to be a struggle.

Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:

Quarterback (3 out of 5)

We covered most of this already, but Brady made four "plus" throws (a third-down conversion to Amendola and three tosses to Gronkowski) and had seven "minus" plays. Some of his problems appeared physical (throwing behind a wide-open Gronkowski down the middle, some of his deep passes), while others appeared to be just not being comfortable or on the same page with some of his targets, which we've talked about. This is now four games in a row where Brady has been average for him. This was preceded by his best five-game stretch of the season. Time to get some boys back.

Running backs (4.5 out of 5)

Lewis continues to be superb. Another three broken tackles, and he was more patient on his screen touchdown. But for the running backs (especially Mike Gillislee), this was more about the great work done by the offensive line. ... James Develin has blocked better in recent weeks.

Receivers (4 out of 5)

Another Gronk show. Terrific as usual. Made Brady look better than he was a few times. More good than bad in run blocking. ... Allen broke a tackle and got some YAC and did good work in the run game. ... Dorsett made a play by breaking a tackle and continues to do underrated work as a blocker. Most probably didn't expect that from him coming out of Miami. ... Britt may have been at least partially at fault on Brady's interception. Brady may have wanted him to flatten his route a bit. Britt did have a red-zone play late in the first quarter when it appeared he failed to make a sight adjustment to his route when the corner backed off into zone coverage.



Offensive line (5 out of 5)



Give it up for the big boys! Now, the Bills don't exactly have the biggest threats on the edge, but Kyle Williams and Adolphus Washington are pretty good on the interior and Joe Thuney and David Andrews each came away with clean sheets. ... Shaq Mason may have given up 1.5 pressures, but that's a great day at the office against mostly Williams. And check out this block by Mason on the TD



... In order of effectiveness: Cam Fleming, Andrews, Thuney, Andrews and Nate Solder. ... Even Solder was more than solid, including on his sack allowed when he came very close to making a very good play.



A salute to Fleming, who has taken his fair share of lumps in his career. This was a banner day for him. ... Some highlights of the group at work:





DEFENSE

Defensive line (4.5 out of 5)



Love the work being done by the interior trio of Malcom Brown, Lawrence Guy and Rickey Jean-Francois. Collectively they are playing their best football of the season. They're not just taking up blockers: they are all making plays. .... Jean-Francois made an underrated nice play on Browns' 15-yard sack (detailed in Patrick Chung video below). ... What can you say about Trey Flowers other than he has played superbly this entire season. I shudder to think where they would be without him. Had seven impactful plays in this game, which is about his norm and a banner day for anyone else. ... Deatrich Wise showed signs of life for the first time in a while. Still think he's a better rusher from the edge but the Patriots have other options there.

Linebackers (4 out of 5)

Marquis Flowers made the statement that he deserves more playing time on defense. Had seven impactful plays, mostly in his work done as a spy against Tyrod Taylor. Every time Taylor thought he could use his feet, Flowers was there to end the threat. Excellent execution. ... Outside of the 39-yard reception by LeSean McCoy (when Roberts was way late covering him out of the backfield), Roberts was solid.

Secondary (2.5 out of 5)

Patrick Chung might have had his best game of the season as he was very effective against both Charles Clay and McCoy. Helped cause (along with Jean-Francois) Brown's big 15-yard sack with his route recognition:



Good game as well from Devin McCourty. .... The cornerbacks...well, I didn't think a one-legged Kelvin Benjamin and Deonte Thompson would have their way with Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler, respectively, but that's what happened. And it could have been a lot worse if Taylor was at all accurate. ... There was another communication error with Gilmore with 1:55 remaining in the first half, but he got away with it when Taylor missed Zay Jones by 15 yards. Both Gilmore (who was wrong) and Eric Rowe jumped Benjamin when he crossed the field. That still has the potential to be a problem in a big spot.

THREE UP

Gronk/Dion Lewis: They were obvious. They continue to be the offense.
Trey Flowers: The Patriots' defensive MVP this season. He's as dependable as Gronk and Lewis.
Cam Fleming/Patrick Chung: I couldn't leave either player out. They each had their best games of the season.

Honorable mention: David Andrews, Joe Thuney, Malcom Brown, Lawrence Guy, Marquis Flowers.

THREE DOWN

Stephon Gilmore: Would have been a lot worse had the officials let Benjamin's TD stand, and if Taylor could hit anything.
Malcolm Butler: His big-play hunting wasn't as bad in this game, he just got beat four times.
Kenny Britt: Probably had a hand in the INT, and didn't make an expected adjustment to a route.

Dishonorable mention: Brandin Cooks.