Scouting report: Mike Tomlin, Steelers should deliver a victory, if they're worthy foes

PITTSBURGH — Mike Tomlin needs to deliver a victory today against the Patriots.

If he’s more than just a good soundbite.

If he’s able to do more than just be a motivator.

If he’s really a good coach.

If you ignore the stats and just go with the eyeball test, Tomlin has been, to this point, an above average coach propped up by a future Hall of Fame quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) and safety (Troy Polamalu), as well as a receiver (Antonio Brown) and running back (Le’Veon Bell) who are on their way there as well.

Since winning a Super Bowl in his second season and returning in his fourth, the Steelers have made one appearance in the AFC Championship Game in the six years since. That was last season, when they went to Foxborough and were shellacked, 36-17. Apparently, they weren’t ready for “dat ass,” as Tomlin proclaimed they would be after edging the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

But the Steelers were missing some key pieces. Martavis Bryant was suspended (seem to be a recurring issue with Tomlin’s teams). Cam Heyward, Ladarius Green and Markus Wheaton were all injured. Bell was injured on the second snap of the game.

This time around, there are no excuses.

The Steelers have their triplets, they’re healthy and playing their best ball of the season.

They have Heyward back, forming one of the league’s best defensive lines with Stephon Tuitt and Javon Hargrave. Sure, they’re a little banged up in the secondary and are missing Ryan Shazier, but this isn’t the first game without their spirited and fleet-of-foot linebacker. A good coach would have the next man up and ready to go by now.

The Steelers are also at home for the second-straight week and have the benefit of entertaining a Patriots team that is coming off a short week and playing their third-straight road game.

The Patriots are the team with all the injury issues, having already lost its best receiver (Julian Edelman) and defensive player (Dont’a Hightower). They’re also down to their third left end player — an undrafted one at that in Eric Lee — now that Kyle Van Noy can’t go with a calf injury. Their best offensive lineman (Marcus Cannon) was placed on injured reserve. And Alan Branch, their highest-paid interior lineman, is also out. Basically, the Patriots’ front seven looks like a used car lot for football players.

The Steelers are coming off two-straight tough divisional games, where they pulled off dramatic comebacks. The Patriots are coming off three-straight bland games against the mediocre AFC East, and were roughed up by the Dolphins on Monday night.

And Steelers have had the entire offseason and this season to get ready for this game. They knew the Patriots would be on the schedule. And they knew, in all likelihood, that the road to the Super Bowl would go through Gillette, or at least the Patriots.

Make no mistake, the Steelers are the hungrier, better and more talented team going into this game (the playoffs might be a different story). Yet, the Patriots enter as 3-point favorites.

Why do you think that is?

That’s an indictment on Tomlin’s coaching acumen. Despite having all these advantages, the Steelers are underdogs because the belief is Bill Belichick will still coach circles around Tomlin today. When it comes down to it, Tomlin’s team will make the undisciplined mistakes and errors that will deliver the Patriots another victory against the Steelers.

It’s time for Tomlin to prove his worth, once and for all. He can shut up all his critics if he can stop mugging for the TV cameras, come up with inventive schemes on both sides of the ball, get his team to drop the faux tough-guy façade and just play disciplined, hard-nosed football and be the football assassins that they have the talent to be.

If not, the chorus will only get louder that the Steelers have a coach that’s out of his league if they truly consider themselves AFC contenders.

Here is the scouting report for the Steelers based on film study used from four games (Colts, Titans, Bengals and Ravens):

OFFENSE

Scheme

Todd Haley is the coordinator, and it’s a fairly simple scheme designed to get the ball out of Roethlisberger’s hands quickly and into the playmakers’ hands. The passing scheme is fairly rudimentary as they’re mostly a screen, flat and deep-shot team. The running game is mostly inside zone.

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger is coming off two of his better games of the season. He’s quickly addressing where the open man will be, and he’s not afraid to throw into coverage or across his body. So far he’s gotten away with it. Take it to the bank: if he has single-high safety coverage with press man, he’s throwing a fade down either sideline. Has shown disinterest in weaker opponents, but he brings it in big games and spots. Will run to pick up first downs. Landry Jones is the middling backup.

Running backs

Le’Veon Bell: There isn’t anything he doesn’t do well. He’s even fairly good at blitz pickup, but he will allow some power rushes. Best hands of any running back in the league.

Receivers

Antonio Brown: Simply the best receiver in the game. Can do it all, from screens to tip-toeing the sideline. Will make catches in traffic as well.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Dynamite rookie who has quickly overtaken Martavis Bryant for the No. 2 role. Dealing with an injury but should give it a go.
Martavis Bryant: Is 6-4 so he can be a matchup problem the red zone, but he’s not a very good receiver and plays small.

Eli Rogers: Will get looks as a secondary option, but not a priority.

TE Jesse James: Has been developing a chemistry with Roethlisberger but is hit and miss in his routes. Can’t block at all.

TE Vance McDonald: Has never lived up to this draft hype. Largely forgettable.

TE Xavier Grimble: The most talented of the TEs but lacks a feel for the position.

Offensive line

LT Alejandro Villaneuva: Grew on me the more I watched him. Huge (6-8) so he’s never going to get low and destroy people, but moves well. Can get a little reachy.

LG Ramon Foster: The weak link on the line. Slow and lacks power.

C Maurkice Pouncey: Not the player he once was but still pretty good. Not as quick as he used to be. Struggles at time in pass pro.

RG David DeCastro: An elite pass blocker, but his run blocking leaves a lot to be desired because his pad level is poor. ProFootballFocus.com has him rated as the league’s top RG. We must be watching different games. Give me Shaq Mason.

RT Chris Hubbard: Subbing for the suspended Marcus Gilbert. I like Hubbard better. Much more powerful at the point of attack. Gets a little sloppy in pass pro.

DEFENSE

Scheme

Keith Butler is a Dick LeBeau disciple and they still run a lot of the zone blitz stuff they’ve been using for 25 years. Guess no one has told them this is 2017. Zone coverage is the dominant secondary technique and they don’t have the athletes to run it effectively (I’d argue it can’t be run effectively against today’s QBs).

Defensive line

RDE Cam Heyward: One of the best interior linemen in the league. He’s strong, powerful and smart. Almost has to be double teamed. Will just push guard right back into the QB.

NT Javon Hargrave: Very quick for a man of his size and very powerful in the lower body. Is tough to reach block because of his feet.

LDE Stephon Tuitt: Everything that Heyward is, just in a taller and thinner package. Not quite as powerful but can be just as dominating.

Reserve Tyson Alualu: Would be starting in a lot of places. Very good player and will be noticed when he enters in relief.

Linebackers

ROLB T.J. Watt: The rookie is very fast and has good instincts, but it’s obvious he needs more experience in this type of scheme before he really gets it. Has been coming on of late. Had best game vs. Ravens. Soft vs. run.

RILB Vince Williams: Love Williams. He’s fast, strong and has good instincts. Might be getting a little exposed without Shazier next to him. Will rush the passer and closes fast.

LILB Arthur Moats/Sean Spence: Both were disasters against the Ravens so we could see host of characters at this spot.

ROLB Bud Dupree: The 2015 first-round pick is merely average. Doesn’t generate much pass rush, and is soft against the run.

Secondary

LCB Cameron Sutton: The rookie is expected to start over Joe Haden and Coty Sensabaugh. Sutton has a lot of tools but plays inexperienced.

SS Sean Davis: He’s the Steelers version of Patrick Chung. Really good attacking the ball and the line of scrimmage, but a liability in space.

FS Robert Golden: Good player but will get beat on deep passes.

RCB Artie Burns: Good in man coverage but is susceptible to double moves and will give up the big play.

Slot Mike Hilton: Equally adept at blitzing and coverage. Hard-nosed, physical player who will peek into the backfield at times.

S Mike Mitchell: Will enter as the third safety but doesn’t stand out.

SPECIAL TEAMS

P Jordan Berry is outstanding. Has to be vying for an All-Pro spot. K Chris Boswell has been Mr. Clutch, but he did have a miss and block vs. Colts. Brown returns punts and is dangerous, if he fields them (it’s hit and miss). Bryant returns kickoffs and his decision-making is not good. Expect the Patriots to make him take them out.

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

Double Heyward and Tuitt: There’s nothing that Brady hates more than interior pressure, and these guys are two of the best in the league at it. Handle those two, live with what happens with Watt and Dupree on the edge.

Outside power runs away from Vince Williams: Both Steelers OLBs are weak against the run, and whoever lines up next to Williams has been roadkill to this point. A lot of big-play potential out there for Dion Lewis.

Ride Gronk: The big man is rested after his suspension and the Steelers don’t have anyone who can cover him in the secondary. Time for a monster game out of him.

PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

Two shell the whole way: The Steelers have a tough time getting big plays against two deep safeties, and they’ll force the passing issue despite having Bell. Make them win this game through Bell. If the Steelers fall behind, they won’t be able to do it.

Cover short: The Steelers love to throw quickly and they’ll do it horizontally. Could see a lot of three-man rushes with players dropping into zones hoping to get a surprise pick or two.

Make Ben win without Brown: You’re never going totally stop Antonio Brown, but don’t let him beat you. Make Ben beat you with Bryant, Rogers and Jesse James. Good luck.

PICK

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 54. Season: 10-3, 6-7 ATS.

Everything is tilting towards the Steelers going into this matchup. I just think the Patriots are too beat up right now — it could very well be different a month from now — to hold down the Steelers’ offense for the entire game.

Steelers 30, Patriots 27.