Scout's Take: Why offenses will dominate Sunday's Patriots-Steelers showdown

With the biggest regular-season game in the AFC looming Sunday between the Patriots and Steelers, we talked to former NFL scout Matt Williamson for four things to watch. Matt’s take is in italics, and our additional notes with some context from the locker room — and statistical totals — are underneath.


1. “The Pittsburgh defense is in shambles. This matchup does not shape up very well for them, particularly in the passing game. Their linebackers are massive liabilities in coverage, and all of a sudden, that defense looks really slow. Going into the (Ryan) Shazier injury, this was one of the best defenses in the league when it came to shutting down tight ends. Not any more, and that’s a big deal when you’re facing someone like Rob Gronkowski. I’d expect the Patriots to use their base personnel, roll out there with two tight ends and two backs and force the Steelers to stay on the field with their linebackers in a 3-4. That way, you could get one of those backs matched up against a linebacker. Detach one of them, and you’ll find a matchup or three that you will like if you’re Tom Brady. The Steelers have allowed a ton of big plays since Joe Haden has been hurt, and with him out, they really have no answer for Brandin Cooks.”

Brady against a Mike Tomlin-led defense has been no contest: since Tomlin took over in 2007, Brady is 6-1 versus Pittsburgh with a 72.0 completion percentage, 324.7 passing yards per game, 22 TDs, no picks and a 127.5 passer rating. One of the things the Patriots have done well over the years is to use the Steelers’ hyper-aggressive defensive approach against them with reverses, play-action and other sorts of fakes. The wild card here could be Haden. As Dale Lolley noted here, if he’s back, he provides more depth in the secondary, and another quality defender who could be used to slow the New England passing game.

(For what it’s worth, here was what Bill Belichick said when he was asked how much things have changed with Shazier out. “They’ve played more dime defense,” he said. “They’re primarily a nickel team going back to last year when it was (Lawrence) Timmons and Shazier. A lot of nickel this year. They’ve played a little more dime this year and in the last couple of weeks in third down situations; not on early downs. I'd say that would be the biggest change. That’s not really a change, but that has shown up.”)

2. “On the flip side, there are positives there for Pittsburgh, mostly on offense. I still think the Steelers have a great offensive line, especially when it comes to pass protection. They’re still strong in the running game, strong enough to run on New England. And Le’Veon Bell is the best in the business. Compounding matters for New England is the lack of athleticism in its front seven. Bell is such a good receiving back that if you detach him from the formation, that’ll cause problems for New England, even if (Kyle) Van Noy plays. I imagine Bill Belichick’s plan is to put a lot of bodies around Antonio Brown and that will slow him down, but he’ll still get his production. I mean, he’s doubled by everyone every week and he still gets his yards. I see (Malcolm) Butler on Brown with help, and (Stephon) Gilmore on Martavis Bryant. Now that JuJu Smith-Schuster is back, they have a nice presence as a third option which could be a challenge for the Patriots. … This is a favorable matchup for both offenses right now. Bottom line? Expect a ton of points to be scored Sunday by both teams.”

Belichick spent the bulk of his Wednesday morning press conference tossing out praise for the Pittsburgh skill position players, particularly Bell and Brown. He called Bell a “tremendous” player. “He leads the league in yards from scrimmage and that’s about really all you need to know,” added Belichick. Belichick was asked about what made Brown so special. “Everything. Just make a list. He’s on all of it,” said the coach.

“Those two guys are both fabulous players on the same team, very hard to defend,” Belichick added of Brown (who leads the league in receiving yardage) and Bell (who leads the league in rushing yardage). “Brown and Bell (are) just dynamic players that have the ability to do so many things, do them so well consistently. They’re there every week. They make big plays every week. Two-thirds of the offense with two guys — that’s a lot of offense.”

3. “When it comes to special teams, (kicker) Chris Boswell has been unreal. Other than (Baltimore's) Justin Tuck, he’s the best kicker in the league right now, and has done a nice job coming through in the clutch. Heinz Field is the most difficult place in the league to kick, and he’s been great. (Stephen) Gostkowski has been there and done it before, but Boswell is really lights out. One thing that’s always worth mentioning is that there always seem to be two teams in the league that are excellent on special teams, the Ravens and the Patriots. Against New England, Bryant will likely return kicks. He’s done a pretty good job — there was a holding penalty on one a couple of weeks ago, but he almost broke one. He’s very talented if he gets free, but last week, the Ravens kicked down to the two-yard line or whatever and made Bryant field it deep, and he struggled. Because New England is so special teams’ savvy, I’d expect the Patriots to do the same thing, something it looks like they’ve been focused on all year long.”

Boswell has kicked four game-winners in the last five games, and his dependability in those situations means that it’ll be tougher for the Patriots to try and win a close one. (Two of them have come in Pittsburgh, one of the two or three toughest places in the league to kick.) The short kickoff element is certainly something worth watching, as it’s an approach Gostkowski and the Patriots have favored much of the season (he talked about some of that here). Expect New England to focus on pop-up kickoffs Sunday against the Steelers that land inside the 10 and force the returner to try and bring them out.

4. “All training camp and all offseason, all people talked about in Pittsburgh was more man coverage. 'If we’re going to compete with the Patriots, we have to play more man coverage.' They haven’t really done lot of it to this point in the season. It’s been all zone. But now, the feeling is sort of ‘We’re 11-2 — why screw with it?’ Because it’s the Patriots this week, maybe we’ll see more press man in an attempt to disrupt those quick routes. Although now, the Patriots look to go deep more this year because there’s no (Julian) Edelman. So that aspect will be sort of a chess match.”

Some of this goes back to whether or not Haden will be able to go, but one of the reasons why the Patriots have enjoyed so much offensive success at the expense of the Steelers is that Brady has been really good when it comes to picking apart zones. Do the Steelers stick with the formula that got them to 11-2, but has been a common thread in their past losses to Brady? Or do they roll the dice and try something relatively out of the ordinary hoping that they can surprise the New England quarterback? The answer to those questions and their level of execution could ultimately tell us who ends up winning the ballgame Sunday afternoon.