On The Beat: 5 questions with Buffalo writer Mike Rodak

This week's edition of "On The Beat" features Mike Rodak of ESPN Buffalo, a buddy of ours who cut his teeth around these parts before moving on to upstate New York. Follow Mike on Twitter here.

1. So which Bills team are we going to see Sunday? The one that roared to a 5-2 start or the one that’s lost three of its last four?



I have a feeling it will be the latter. Nationally, many were complimentary of the Bills for going to Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday and beating the Chiefs to end a three-game losing streak. But outside of the run defense, which held Kareem and Akeem Hunt to seven total yards, I do not believe the Bills played all that well. Unlike the Patriots, who saw the Chiefs when they were firing on all cylinders in the opener, the Bills caught the Chiefs when Alex Smith forgot how to play football. The normally reliable Kansas City crowd turned on Smith early in the game and the Bills benefited -- but their offense struggled to put the game away in the second half. Tom Brady is too consistent for the Bills to play that sort of game and win this Sunday. The Bills cleaned up some of their issues from their losing streak last weekend, but a lot of work remains.

2. Is there someone on the Buffalo roster who isn’t a household name who we could be talking about by the time the ballgame is over?

Anyone in the secondary, including rookie first-round cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The Bills completely rebuilt their secondary this offseason, signing Poyer and Hyde, drafting White, trading for cornerback E.J. Gaines and signing nickel back Leonard Johnson (a former Patriot). Hyde leads fan voting among AFC strong safeties for the Pro Bowl and ranks second in the NFL with five interceptions. If the Bills secondary can force a turnover or two, the complexion of the game might change.

3. What is the biggest weakness on the Buffalo offense you expect the Patriots to try and exploit?

Lack of an intermediate-to-deep passing game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Bills rank 29th in the NFL in completions on passes traveling 15 or more yards in the air. They lost their deep threat when Sammy Watkins was traded in August and with Kelvin Benjamin still recovering from a torn ACL, so there's not a true No. 1 receiver on the roster. Expect veteran Deonte Thompson and rookie Zay Jones to start with Jordan Matthews playing in the slot, but that group might be among the NFL’s worst at wide receiver. Thompson has the speed to break a big play here or there, but otherwise tight end Charles Clay might be the biggest threat to the Patriots’ secondary.

4. What’s the biggest weakness on the Buffalo defense you expect the Patriots to try and exploit?

Their run defense has shown holes this season, especially after the trade of Marcell Dareus. Since Week 8, the Bills have allowed 149 rushing yards per game (30th) and 4.76 yards per rush (28th). They’re showing some age up front with defensive tackle Kyle Williams and linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, both 34, seeing a decline in production this season. Last year's first-round pick, defensive end Shaq Lawson, has also been a disappointment, and middle linebacker Preston Brown lacks some athleticism to perform in Sean McDermott’s system. Ramon Humber, a special teams-focused player for the Patriots, has also had some bumps as a full-time starter for Buffalo.

5. The Bills win Sunday if…

...they can force two or more turnovers. The Bills are 5-1 this season when they force two or more turnovers and 1-4 when they do not. When the Bills last defeated Brady in Buffalo, in 2011, they forced him to throw four interceptions. The Bills will need some balls to bounce their way Sunday if they want a repeat of that result. Offensively, the Bills are at their best when they control the clock and run the ball well, shortening the game and keeping the opponent off the field. If they get into a shootout with Brady, they will lose.

Mike's pick:

The Bills’ coaches have changed but the results of the Patriots’ last five trips to New Era Field have been fairly consistent. They have allowed an average of 39 points in those five losses and have generally been unable to slow down Brady. The weather in Buffalo – mid-40s with no precipitation expected – should be ideal for the Patriots passing game to move the ball against the Bills defense. As long as New England can score touchdowns and not turn the ball over, they will score their 30th win against Buffalo in the past 18 years.

Patriots 35, Bills 20