One of the more frequent questions that I receive on Twitter is whether or not the Pats have enough cap space to acquire Player X.
Right now, with $4,961,084 in cap space, only if the player is really cheap. As I've laid about before, they need some room to operate for the rest of the season (incentives to be paid, practice squad, injured players, etc). And while the salary of any player brought on board would be prorated for the rest of the season, that doesn't leave much room for a big-ticket player.
Let's just cut to the chase. This is what you need to know in terms of what the Patriots can afford:
- Cap hit of less than $2 million: Patriots can afford without doing anything.
- Cap hit between $2 million and $5 million: Will have to create cap space.
- Cap hit more than $5 million: Will have to trade a current Patriot to take on such a player.
Let's say the Patriots wanted to trade for a 49ers left tackle Joe Staley, who has a 2017 salary of $8,250,000 and a 46-man active roster bonus of $31,250.
They would then become responsible for the 10 remaining 46-man active roster bonuses ($312,500 total) and 11/17ths of his salary or $5,338,236 ($312,500 plus $5,338,236 = $5,650,735). Since the $5,650,735 is more than their current salary cap space number the Patriots would have to have create cap space.
In my estimation, if the Patriots want to acquire a player whose 2017 cap hit for the Patriots would be higher than their current salary cap space number they would do so by trading a current Patriot.
Potential trade targets
Here are some players mentioned as potential trade targets for the Patriots, and the cap math:
Giants DE Jason-Pierre Paul: The Pats could afford to take on his $1.25 million 2017 salary and his $62,500 46-man active roster bonuses with little issue. However, the big question is whether they are willing to take on his future cash commitments:
- 2018: $12.5 million ($7.75 million of which is fully guaranteed)
- 2019: $14.5 million
- 2020: $12.5 million
Browns LT Joe Thomas: Since Thomas's remaining 2017 salary (11/17ths of $8.8 million is more than the current Patriots salary cap space number, I would expect a player-for-player trade.
Bears DE Pernell McPhee: Since McPhee's remaining 2017 salary (11/17ths of $6.95 million is just under the current Patriots salary cap space number, I project that Pats would restructure a current Patriot deal to make room for McPhee on their roster
Creating cap space
If the Patriots desire to create more cap space to acquire a player — something they have resisted doing in the past — this is how they would do that.
- Cut a player;
- Trade player;
- Have player accept a pay cut: a Patriot player has never accepted a pay cut during the regular season under the current CBA which began in 2011;
- Extend player while converting salary into a signing bonus: Patriots have never performed this move during the regular season under the current CBA;
- Convert salary into signing bonus: Patriots have never performed this move during the regular season under the current CBA. The only time the Patriots have performed this move in recent years was in '16 when they converted $3.74 million of Devin McCourty's base salary into a signing bonus the Friday before the Week 1 game against the Cardinals. The Patriots gained $2,805,000 in 2016 cap space in exchange for increasing each of McCourty's future cap numbers by $935,000.
Background Information
For the sake of simplicity will be presuming that any players mentioned will be active for the Week 6 game against the Jets:
- NFL Players are paid for the 17 weeks during the regular season.
- Most contracts have a clause that allows the team to convert salary into a signing bonus at any time and at the team's discretion.
- Once a player has received cash in the form of a roster bonus or a weekly salary it cannot be later converted into a signing bonus to create cap space. Example, a player with a $1,700,000 salary got paid for Week 1. That $100,000 can't later be converted into in a signing bonus.
- When a team trades a player the new team assumes responsibility for the player's remaining salary and any remaining 46-man active roster bonuses. Let's use Ryan Allen as an example. If traded after the Week 6 Jets game his team would then be responsible for 11/17ths of his $1,200,000 salary and 10 of his 16 46-man active roster bonuses.
- In the first two ways (cut or trade a player) the cap savings will be decreased by the salary of the player who replaces the cut player on the 53-man roster.
- It is rare for a player, especially a veteran who is eligible for termination pay, to agree to a pay cut during the regular season. Why? A player who is eligible for termination pay had his entire salary for the season guaranteed by being on the team's Week 1 53-man roster.
- APY is short for Average Per Year;
- As of 7 a.m. Oct. 15, my Patriots salary cap space number is $4,961,084.
Creating cap space using current Patriots players
Please note that I am NOT suggesting that the Patriots cut/trade/extend/restructure all of the below players. I am pointing out the salary cap consequences of doing so.
Going in descending order by 2017 cap number:
LT Nate Solder
Release: Since Solder is eligible for termination pay, the only cap savings from a cut would come from not being responsible for his $31,250 46-man active roster bonus.
Trade: If they traded Solder, the Patriots could create $3.905 million in cap space before Week 7.The cap savings amount presumes that Solder will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $355,000 each week until it drops to $3.195 million on Oct. 31, the trade deadline.
The cap savings amount presumes that Solder will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $355,000 each week until it drops to $3.195 million on Oct. 31, the trade deadline.
Restructure: We are now past the point where cap space can be created by extending Solder if the extension pays him around the same amount as his current deal ($10 million APY) and the Patriots use their typical deal structure.
Devin McCourty
Release: Since McCourty's 2017 salary is fully guaranteed, the only cap savings from a cut would come from not being responsible for his $31,250 46-man active roster bonus.
Trade: If they traded McCourty, the Patriots could create $3.905 million in cap space before Week 7.The cap savings amount presumes that McCourty will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $355,000 each week until it drops to $3.195 million on Oct. 31, the trade deadline.
The cap savings amount presumes that McCourty will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $355,000 each week until it drops to $3.195 million on Oct. 31, the trade deadline.
Restructure: The Patriots could, like they did in 2016, convert some of McCourty's salary into a signing bonus to create cap space. For example, they could create $2 million in cap space by converting $3 million of his salary into a signing bonus. Doing so would increase his '18 and '19 numbers by a million dollars each year.
DT Alan Branch
Release: Since Branch is eligible for termination pay and $1 million of his '17 salary is fully guaranteed, the cap savings from a cut can only come from not being responsible for his $40,625 46-man active roster bonus, his playing time incentives, and maybe his weight bonuses.
Here are the salary cap ramifications of releasing Branch after the Jets game, and before the Week 7 game against the Falcons.
Current 2017 cap hit as a Patriot
Salary: $1,700,000
Signing bonus proration: $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses: $650,000 ($40,625 per game)
Weight bonus: $400,000
Playing-time incentives: $875,000
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$4,075,000
Current 2018 cap hit as a Patriot
Salary: $1,700,000
Signing bonus proration: $1,000,000
March 2017 roster bonus: $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses: $562,500 ($37,500 per game)
Weight bonus: $400,000
Playing-time incentives: $1,150,000
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$5,812,500
2017 Cap hit if released
Salary: $1,700,000
Signing bonus proration: $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses: $203,125 ($40,625 per game for 5 active games)
Weight bonus - $400,000 (may decrease if Branch did not actually met his weight goal - 4 different weigh-ins worth $100,000 each)
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$3,303,125 - a savings of $771,875 from his current 2017 cap number. Net savings will be less as a player will take his spot on the 53-man roster. If it is a rookie, the savings would be $470,993 as the Pats would be responsible for paying 11/17ths ($300,882) of the rookie's $465,000 salary
2018 Cap Hit if Released before the 2018 League Year begins on March 14
Signing Bonus Proration - $1,000,000
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$1,000,000 - a savings of $4,812,500.
The numbers are different if Branch is traded because his new team would then become responsible for his salary.
2017 cap hit if traded
Salary: $600,000
Signing bonus proration: $1,000,000
46-man active roster bonuses: $203,125 ($40,625 per game for 4 active games)
Weight bonus: $400,000 (may decrease if Branch did not actually meet his weight goal - 4 different weigh-ins worth $100,000 each)
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$2,203,125 - a savings of $1,871,875 from his current 2017 cap number. Net savings will be less as a player will take his spot on the 53-man roster. If it is a rookie, the savings would be $1,570,993 as the Pats would be responsible for paying 11/17ths ($300,882) of the rookie's $465,000 salary. The savings from a Branch trade goes down weekly by his $100,000 salary. The savings will also go down if he is active for a game between now and his trade.
TE Dwayne Allen
Release: Since Allen is eligible for termination pay, the only cap savings from a cut would come from not being responsible for his $31,250 46-man active roster bonus.
Trade: If they traded Allen, Patriots could create $1,598,015 in cap space before Week 7.
The cap savings amount presumes that Dwayne will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $150,955 each week until it drops to $1,296,103 on October 31, the trade deadline. The Patriots could convert some of Dwayne's salary into a signing bonus to create cap space. For example, they could create $1 million in cap space by converting $1.5 million of his salary into a signing bonus. Doing so would increase his 2018 and 2019 numbers by $500,000 each year.
CB Malcolm Butler
Release or trade: If they waived or traded Butler, Patriots could create $2,229,118 in cap space if they remove him from their 53-man roster before Week 7
The cap savings amount presumes that Butler will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $202,647 each week until it drops to $1,823,824 on October 31, the trade deadline.
OT Cameron Fleming
Release or trade: If they waived or traded Fleming, Patriots could create $861,882 in cap space if they remove him from their 53-man roster before Week 7.
The cap savings amount presumes that Fleming will be replaced on the 53-man roster by a player making the rookie salary of $465,000. The higher the salary of the replacement the lower the cap savings amount. The cap savings amount decreases by $78,353 each week until it drops to $705,156 on October 31, the trade deadline.
Questions... and answers
Q: Are there contracts on the Patriots that can't be touched?
A: Yes, per the CBA, the deals of drafted players can't be redone for the first three years of their NFL careers. For undrafted free agents, their three-year deals can't be touched for the first two years. Therefore, the rookie contracts of Malcom Brown, Eric Rowe, Jordan Richards, Trey Flowers, Shaq Mason and Joe Cardona can't be touched until January 1, 2018, which is after the 2017 regular season.
Also, the rookie contracts of Cyrus Jones, Joe Thuney, Vincent Valentine, Malcolm Mitchell, Elandon Roberts, Shaq Mason, Adam Butler, Cole Croston, Jacob Hollister, Harvey Langi and Joe Cardona can't be touched until after the 2018 regular season. The rookie contracts of Deatrich Wise, Derek Rivers, and Tony Garcia can't be touched until after the 2019 season.
Q: Why no mention of Tom Brady as a cap space creation possibility
A: His 2017 cap number of $14 million consists of his 1 million salary and 13 million in signing bonus proration. The 13 million in signing bonus proration can't be further prorated. Brady's 1 million salary is already at the minimum for a player with his years of experience and therefore can't be lowered.
Q: Why no mention of Gilmore, Gronkowski, Chung, Hightower, Harmon, Guy, Branch, Harris, Van Noy as cap space creation possibilities?
A: Since they signed new deals in 2017, I am very doubtful the Patriots would convert their salaries into signing bonuses.
Q: Can the Patriots create cap space by cutting Stephon Gilmore this year?
A: No, they would actually lose cap space since Gilmore's 2018 fully guaranteed $8.5 million salary would then hit their 2017 salary cap.
Q: When could the Patriots create significant cap space by cutting Stephon Gilmore?
A: Not until Feb. 2019 and before the third day of the '19 League Year, which is when $9 million of his '19 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Cutting Gilmore in Feb. 2019 would lower his cap from $13.6 million to $10.8 million
Q: When could the Patriots create significant cap space by trading Stephon Gilmore?
A: After June 2, 2018. Doing so would lower his '18 cap number from $12.6 million to $3.6 million while his '19 cap number would go from $13.6 million to $10.8 million.
Q: Whose 2017 salaries are fully guaranteed by terms in their contracts?
A: Tom Brady, Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, Dont'a Hightower, Mike Gillislee, Marcus Cannon, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, Lawrence Guy, Malcom Brown, James White, Phillip Dorsett.
Q: Whose 2017 salaries are now fully guaranteed by the termination pay clause?
A: Nate Solder, Rob Gronkowski, Patrick Chung, Dwayne Allen, Alan Branch, Stephen Gostkowski, Duron Harmon, Rex Burkhead, David Harris, Ryan Allen, Dion Lewis, James Develin, Johnson Bademosi, Nate Ebner, Brandon Bolden, LaAdrian Waddle.
Q: How much cap space do the Patriots need for the rest of the year?
A: The Patriots need to have enough cap space to cover earned NLTBE (Non-Likely To Be Earned), 46-man active roster bonuses (current potential liability is $679,687.50) and to replace injured players. How much for injured players? After Week 6, a conservative estimate will be between $1 and $3 million. Other possible uses of current cap space are paying a practice squad player more than the minimum and extending a current player who has a low salary.
Q: If the Pats want to trade for a player in Week 7 what would they be responsible cap-wise in 2017?
A: The 11 remaining weeks of his 2017 salary, any remaining 46-man active roster bonuses, and any incentives. Please note that per the CBA "Any team performance-related incentive will be revalued under the “likely to be earned” rules if the contract is assigned to a new Team through trade or waiver" so if a player had a Super Bowl incentive and then was traded to the Patriots it would now be considered likely to be earned since the Pats are the defending Super Bowl champions.