Farrell's fate to be determined soon -- and the stakes are high

The Red Sox clubhouse was cleaned out Tuesday, a day after their elimination loss to the Houston Astros, and a more obvious metaphor you may not find.

Even before it’s determined whether that cleanout continues with a wholesale upending of the roster, the Sox have a more obvious decision to make: the future of manager John Farrell.

In past years, the Red Sox manager and general manager have met with the media shortly after the clubhouse is opened to the media while players pack boxes and say their goodbyes. This season, tellingly, the team announced that Farrell and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would be available to reporters “ later (in) the week.’’

There’s a reason the traditional season-in-review session is being postponed: the Sox have to first determine whether Farrell will be returning for the final year of his existing contract.

The answer, for now, is uncertain. It’s a given that the Red Sox will come to a determination of Farrell’s future before he – or Dombrowski – meets with the media. There could be nothing more awkward than Farrell being asked about his own job security without having a definitive answer from ownership and upper management.

For several months, Farrell’s precarious future has been the subject of speculation around the game. Sources in multiple organizations had theorized that Farrell wouldn’t survive if the Sox failed to reach the ALCS, believing that that would represent an opening for Dombrowski to push for a change.

Now that the Sox have indeed fallen short of that hypothetical plateau, the debate is on.

Within the organization, Farrell is said to have the full support of principal owner John Henry and team president/CEO Sam Kennedy. Dombrowski’s support of Farrell is less clear.

In the past – after the early playoff exit last October, for instance – Dombrowski has offered generic shows of support for Farrell’s job performance, careful, it would appear, not to ladle to put much praise for someone he might someday have to dismiss.

It’s important to remember that Dombrowski inherited Farrell, hired days after the manager disclosed his cancer diagnosis. With Farrell undergoing treatment, it was impossible for the new executive to make a change and the team’s nearly wire-to-wire occupancy of first place in the East in 2016 provided Farrell with more cover.

While Farrell and Dombrowski have maintained a professional relationship in the public eye, it’s less smooth behind the scenes, sources indicate. On occasion, Dombrowski has been known to upbraid Farrell immediately after games in his office, questioning his tactical moves during games.  At times, that pointed criticism has been overheard in the clubhouse, which can’t help Farrell’s standing with players.

Certainly, it’s within Dombrowski’s right to have a manager of his own choosing, and not the one who was already in place when he took over better than two years ago. But as is frequently the case, the situation is decidedly more complicated than how it may seem on the surface.

First, there’s the matter of firing a manager who just guided his team to its second straight division title, the first such manager to achieve that distinction in franchise history. Ordinarily, such firings take place after a series of losing seasons. And while Farrell is far from a popular figure among segments of the fan base locally, in the baseball world, it will look odd if the Sox fire a manager coming off back-to-back 93-win seasons and first-place finishes.

Then, there’s the matter of how much ownership and upper management pushes back if indeed Dombrowski wants a change in the manager’s office. They have long backed Farrell, having twice attempted – the first time unsuccessfully -- to hire him away from Toronto and have supported him in the wake of his health concerns and public disclosures of his private life.

The issue to be settled is this: is their support of Farrell strong enough to negate Dombrowski’s request for a change? And if the answer is “yes,’’ then what does tell Dombrowski about his standing in the organization and ability to conduct business as he wishes?

Moreover, identifying Farrell’s replacement isn’t an obvious task. For someone with nearly 40 years in the game as an executive, Dombrowski doesn’t have much of a “managerial tree’’ – that is, those to whom he could turn, having mentored them in the past.

One exception is former Detroit Tigers manager Brad Ausmus, who was let go last month, but was first hired by Dombrowski when he served as president of baseball operations for the Tigers. However, Ausmus could be in play for both openings with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies and hasn’t definitively determined that he wants to return to the dugout immediately.

The current Red Sox coaching staff offers few options for Dombrowski, since many are so closely associated with Farrell and would not offer a clean break from his tenure.

Finally, there’s this: if Farrell is retained, the Red Sox would almost certainly have to grant him an extension rather than have him enter 2018 as a lame duck.

Much is at stake for Farrell over these next two or three days, with the two options ranging from firing to an extension offering him more security – and nothing in-between.