It’s not a regular occurrence that a quarterback goes from league MVP two years ago to almost a bit player in an offense, but if the Panthers are to pull an upset on Sunday at Gillette, that’s exactly what’s going to happen with Cam Newton.
The Panthers want to play from ahead, they want to run the ball and they want a short, controlled passing game. If you think that sounds like they’re trying to hide Newton, you are correct. Before the Panthers fell behind the Saints last week, the first two drives were basically a how-to in hiding a quarterback, like Newton was Brian Hoyer. It was chock full of running plays, various reverses, screens and quick passes.
What they don’t want to do is have Newton have to drop back over 25 times taking deep shots and win the game from the pocket. Either he’s not capable of doing that anymore, or his balky shoulder is still not at full strength.
If the Patriots allow the Panthers to play their preferred offense, New England will have a tough time generating turnovers and getting distance on Carolina.
Here is the scouting report on the Carolina Panthers (2-1), gleaned through film study and background discussions with one NFC scout:
OFFENSE
Scheme
Mike Shula is in his fifth season as Panthers offensive coordinator, and he favors one of the most diverse running games in the NFL with an assortment of old-school football plays dressed up with the most modern college football looks and motion (I wrote about it for Sports Illustrated here). The Panthers are the eighth-most run-heavy team in the league with a 47/53 run-pass ratio. In their Super Bowl season of 2015, they were 50-50. Panthers are 30th in yards per play (4.41), 30th in passing yards per game (168.3), 13th in rushing yards per game (108.3), tied for fourth on third downs (48.8) but tied for 30th in the red zone (25 percent). They are second in time of possession (34:02).
Quarterbacks
It seems like a lifetime ago, not just two seasons past, that the Panthers were 15-1 and NFC Champions, and Newton (6-foot-5, 244 pounds, 4.59 in 40-yard dash) was NFL MVP, as he threw 35 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and ran for another 10 scores on the ground. Since then, the Panthers are 8-9, and in that stretch, Newton has thrown 21 touchdowns, 18 interceptions and rushed for six scores. Players that haven’t faced Newton before can’t believe how large he is: he’s basically a tight end or defensive end with a quarterback’s skill set. But Newton has gone from completing 60 percent of his passes in ’15 to 53 percent in an injury-plagued ’16. So far this season, he’s up to 61.4 against three defenses that finished ’16 in the bottom six of Football Outsiders DVOA rating. And he threw three interceptions last week vs. New Orleans, and has four on the season.
Newton’s biggest issues have been his mechanics and footwork, which have deteriorated in the last year (perhaps because of injuries), and he’s throwing off his back foot more than ever.
Veteran Derek Anderson (34) is the backup. Brad Kaaya, who was a sixth-round pick of the Lions and then released, is inactive.
Receivers
Newton was already having to deal with not having his most dependable target (tight end Greg Olsen, broken foot), and then wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a left knee injury early against the Saints. He’s expected to play. Here’s Dr. Jessica Flynn’s assessment of how effective Benjamin will be: The video of Kelvin Benjamin's injury is very dramatic. He's taken down with his left knee bent awkwardly behind him. He remains on the ground grabbing the leg and requires help to get off of the field. Knowing Benjamin's history of ACL reconstruction in 2015 it's certainly a concern, but the good news is that nothing about the actual movement of the knee on the replay looked very concerning. An MRI was done that evening which reportedly showed no structural damage and Benjamin had full participation both Thursday and Friday. All of this is good news for the Panthers. The real question is how effective the WR will be. Given that the most worrisome thing that I saw on the video was Benjamin's reaction to it, I'm not concerned this is a big deal. My best guess is that he may still be a little sore on Sunday and therefore not quite 100 percent.
Here’s how the Panthers line up, and scouting reports:
LWR Kelvin Benjamin (6-5, 240, 4.62): 15 targets, 9 receptions, 110 yards. Of the Panthers’ twin towers, he is without question the most talented, and a nightmare matchup. The only thing holding him back from taking over the league is Newton’s lack of accuracy.
RWR Devin Funchess (6-4, 232, 4.70): 18 targets, 10 receptions, 146 yards. The former tight end is slowly improving his consistency, but will drop the ball and doesn’t do great in traffic.
Slot Russell Shepard (6-1, 195, 4.46): 5 targets, 3 receptions, 59 yards. He had a 40-yard touchdown in the opener when he was left wide open. He's not that productive -- mostly a special teamer to this point with Tampa Bay previously.
Speed Curtis Samuel (5-11, 196, 4.34): 8 targets, 4 catches, 12 yards. Ruled out this week after showing his burst with a 31-yard carry last week.
Depth Damiere Byrd (5-9, 162, 4.31): 3 targets, 0 receptions. Very fast -- the Panthers will probably look to hit him on a shot play and to use in their extensive quick-screen game.
TE Ed Dickson (6-4, 255, 4.66): 5 targets, 3 catches for 34 yards. Good speed, decent blocker, very inconsistent hands. Has also looked better than he played.
TE2 Chris Manhertz (6-6, 255, 4.76): Converted basketball player with one career reception.
Offensive line
LT Matt Kalil (6-7, 315): Signed to a huge free-agent contract after an inconsistent start to his career with the Vikings. He looks the part, but has yet to put it together. He's already had some bad miscues in their blocking scheme.
LG Andrew Norwell (6-5, 320): A solid, tough drive blocker in the run game, but can struggle with quicker defenders in pass blocking.
C Tyler Larsen (6-4, 325): Entire unit takes a step back with franchise C Ryan Kalil still out (neck). Larsen is well-traveled having gone from Miami to Washington. Decent for a former third-stringer.
RG Trai Turner (6-3, 315): By far the best of the bunch, a Pro Bowl talent. He's athletic, powerful and plays with a nasty edge. His only weaknesses is sometimes he’s too aggressive and overshoots blocks.
RT Daryl Williams (6-6, 330): Good size and strength, but is average at best in terms of athleticism and power.
Amini Silatolu (interior), Greg Van Roten (interior) and Taylor Moton (right tackle, second-round pick) are usually active.
Running backs
A terrific, well-round group that is capable of doing a lot of damage if the line can block. Jonathan Stewart (5-10, 240, 4.48) is a savvy, 10-year veteran who doesn’t have the speed he once did, but is very good from tackle to tackle, and is still quick enough to threaten the edge. Primarily a two-down back. Will be paired in the backfield at times with eighth-overall pick Christian McCaffrey (5-11, 202, 4.48) who plays quick but is not very big. He won’t give up on a play and can hide behind blockers. Stewart has 48 touches (45 rushing), while McCaffrey has 43 (25 rushing) and a 100-yard receiving game already. They’ll use him a lot on sprint handoffs and can run the entire route tree in the passing game. Fozzy Whitaker (5-10, 205) is strictly for depth, and Cameron Artis-Payne (5-10, 215) is inactive. Alex Armah (6-2, 253) hasn’t played offensively.
DEFENSE
Scheme
Steve Wilks is in his first season as coordinator after Sean McDermott left to coach the Bills. Wilks was formerly the secondary coach and assistant head coach. It’s the same 4-3 scheme that has an extensive blitz package and will put the linebackers over the center to mess with blocking schemes. Panthers play more zone than man, but they can morph depending on opponent. Some problems matching up rush and coverage showed up last week in the loss to the Saints. Panthers rank first in yards allowed (251.7), third in passing yards (162.0), second in points (12.3) and tied for seventh on third downs (33.3 percent).
Defensive line
A big, athletic and veteran group that is at its best against the run but struggles to generate a consistent pass rush, especially on the edge.
Starters
DE Charles Johnson (6-2, 278): Now in his 11th year, Johnson is no longer the fearsome pass rusher he once was, but he can bring power that is tough to handle at times. Now in a rotation.
DT Star Lotulelei (6-2, 315): Of the brothers of bulk from the ’13 draft, Lotulelei is the stronger of the two interior players but he doesn’t move well and doesn’t bring much in the rush.
DT Kawann Short (6-3, 315): A three-technique with good quickness, he hasn’t become the pass rusher he once promised to be.
DE Mario Addison (6-3, 260): He plays the most snaps out of the group and he’s a better pass rusher than run defender. Can get out of his gaps.
Rushers
DE Julius Peppers (6-7, 295): The second overall pick in 2002 is now in his second tour of duty with the Panther and a designated pass rusher in place of Johnson.
DE Wes Horton (6-5, 265):Don’t sleep on Horton in rush situations. He can get up under a blocker’s pads and make trouble.
DE Daeshon Hall (6-5, 265): Rookie out of Texas A&M provides depth.
Interior
DT Kyle Love (6-1, 310): Former Patriot is still plugging along as a good depth player who has surprising pass-rush ability if given an opening.
DT Vernon Butler (6-4, 330): Depth player.
Linebackers
Even though they’ve been together as a group for three years, these Panthers are still elite as a unit, led by middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (6-3, 238). He’s battled injuries the past couple of years but when he’s right, he sees things before they happen due to film study and preparation. Will make plays all over the field due to his speed. Thomas Davis (6-1, 240) can still run and make plays at age 34 to the point that Shaq Thompson (6-0, 230) still can’t overcome him for a full-time job. But Davis has a tough time getting off blocks in the run game. Thompson had a disappointing sophomore season but few can run like the former college safety. David Mayo is the extra linebacker against the run. Unit weakness is over-aggressiveness against play action.
Secondary
Still a young and error-prone group that will be without starting left corner Darryl Worley (injury). Right corner James Bradberry (6-1, 212) is the better of the two sophomore cornerbacks in coverage, but he needs to be better against the run. Kevon Seymour (6-0, 185), who was acquired in a trade with the Bills before the season, will likely get the start in place of Worley. Veteran Captain Munnerlyn (5-9, 195) is the nickel and still competes well but has a tough time holding up in coverage. At safety, free safety Kurt Coleman (5-11, 208) has been a disaster in the pass game and can easily blow an assignment due to too much freelancing. Strong safety Mike Adams (5-11, 205) is a little more steady but, again, not great vs. the pass.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Punter Michael Palardy (44.4 average) is slightly below average in most punting categories. Kicker Graham Gano is 8-for-8 this season after hitting just 78.9 percent last season. He’s banged all 13 kickoffs for touchbacks. Coverage and return units, coordinated by Thomas McGaughey, are both solid, physical and fast and productive. McCaffrey is a dangerous punt returner. Samuel has returned one kickoff for 30 yards.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
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- Use play-action to create space and big plays: Panthers are very undisciplined in the secondary and can often get caught looking there. A successful run-action game should open things up.
- Stay away from medium-length passes in the middle: Even if you think Kuechly will take a fake, he won’t, and he’ll quickly get into a passing lane.
- Combo routes at Kurt Coleman: Panthers opponents in the early going have had success running twin vertical routes at Coleman because he guesses.
- Stay disciplined in the run game: Panthers do a lot of similar things in the running game to the Chiefs, who had their way with the Patriots’ defensive fronts. Everyone from the tackles to the cornerbacks have to be disciplined in their assignments or the Panthers won’t stop running.
- Have a matchup for McCaffrey… that isn’t named Kyle Van Noy or Jordan Richards: The Panthers will try to get those matchups and exploit them. Patriots will need a safety or a cornerback to help on the speedy rookie.
- Make Cam Newton throw to win: The Panthers want to win on the ground. If the Patriots can halt the rushing attack, Newton isn’t good enough right now to beat them without Greg Olsen.