By now, everyone knows the statistics that show the Patriots have the worst defense in the NFL through three games.
In case you needed a recap, the Patriots are:
- Last in points per game
- Last in total yards
- Last in yards per play
- Last in passing yards per game
- Next-to-last in rushing yards per game
- 30th in first downs per game
- 30th in defensive passer rating
- Tied for 30th in goal-to-go situations.
And it's not just real statistics; advanced analytics also reflect poorly on Bill Belichick's defense. FootballOutsiders.com has the Patriots last in total defense, 31st in pass defense and 28th against the run.
With that out of the way, we have to ask two questions: Have the Patriots really been that bad? And will they continue to be?
Sort of. And no.
The Patriots were terrible in the opener against the Chiefs (the worst performance by a Belichick Patriots defense in points and yards), good against the Saints, and not good against the Texans. Some of it needs to be put into context. The Chiefs are a tough team to play, especially in the opener, because they're unlike most NFL offenses in that they use a lot of spread offense principles. And coach Andy Reid is always at his best when he has time to prepare for an opponent. Plus, the Patriots had a lot of new personnel, and some returning players in new spots (Dont'a Hightower). That being said, New England should have been better that -- the roster didn't appear to be well prepared.
Against the Texans, the Patriots were facing one of their nemeses: an athletic quarterback. They've always had problems with those types of players, and Deshaun Watson probably played better than New England thought he could. Give him credit.
Because the Patriots are so conservative on defense, they play passively against athletic quarterbacks with a lot of zone. If you play man and the cornerbacks have their backs to the passer in coverage, you run the risk of an 8-yard scramble turning into 40 or 50 yards. So the Patriots play more zone against the likes of Watson. This is no longer 2004: today's quarterbacks, even average or below-average ones, can carve up zone coverages because they are trained better and throw more before getting to the NFL than ever before. This is why the Patriots, since Aqib Talib arrived in 2012, have been primarily a man coverage team. At least once the real season starts October.
And when you throw in Drew Brees, even without good offensive tackles or adequate targets, you are talking pretty close to a worst-case opening for the Patriots.
So I wouldn't hyperventilate about where they are defensively.
However, they are are a lot better than what they've shown to this point. That's on the coaches first and the players second.
Not being prepared for the season opener thanks in part to a flaccid training camp, was not good enough. Putting players in position to fail (Jordan Richards, Cassius Marsh) at important spots when the Patriots had an entire training camp and preseason to prepare for one opponent, was not good enough.
The biggest mystery through three games is how a secondary where all three safeties and two of the top three cornerbacks (Malcolm Butler, Eric Rowe) have returned with the addition of a player in Stephon Gilmore they valued at $13 million per season, is suddenly worse. Are we to believe Logan Ryan was the glue that held everything together? Of course not.
To this point, there's been a disconnect in the secondary that safeties coach Steve Belichick and cornerbacks coach Josh Boyer have to fix. That's their job. Both helped win a Super Bowl last season, so the hope is they didn't forget how to coach in the offseason. (Yes, I'm being facetious.)
And, yes, there is hope. Remember when, after a Week 4 41-14 loss to the Chiefs in 2014, some thought the Patriots (including the defense) were finished? There were similar circumstances to this season. A veteran group that included the likes of Vince Wilfork, Chandler Jones, Jerod Mayo, Hightower, Jamie Collins, Chung and McCourty had yet to gel with a top free-agent corner (Darrelle Revis), and were waiting on another (Brandon Browner, who was suspended).
We all know what happened after that.
I wasn't one of those who went nuts after that game, and I feel the same way now: this team, specifically the defense, is better than this. There is plenty of talent. And it's up to the coaches to get it out of them.
Here are the positional ratings and evaluations in the win over the Texans:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (Rating: 5 out of 5)
Considering how much pressure he was under throughout this game (chart below), this has to be considered one of Tom Brady’s best regular-season games in his career. I mean, 52.3 percent pressure is absurdly high, especially for a quarterback that doesn’t bring much pressure on himself by keeping plays alive, like an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson (although I did put 1.5 sacks on Brady for holding the ball a little too long). Just some terrific throws from Brady in this game, including the 44-yarder to Brandin Cooks, the touchdown to Rob Gronkowski, third-down throws to Danny Amendola (twice) and Gronkowski, and, of course, the game-winner to Cooks. That throw included a subtle pump fake that I didn’t notice until watching the film. That fake was the difference between a touchdown and, perhaps, an interception:
Here’s an example of Brady being at least partially responsible for the strip sack/fumble return by Jadeveon Clowney. Brady had the ball for 3.41 seconds. Too long against that group. He had James Develin open, although you can understand why he wouldn’t throw to him (he’s a fullback).
Running backs (3.5 out of 5)
Outside of James White doing a great job to break a tackle on a crucial third-down pass, there was nothing out of the ordinary (good or bad) from this group. You could say they did a good job in pass protection because there were no blatant errors when they helped to chip the pass rush. It also feels like Mike Gillislee is close to breaking a big run, but he’s going to need help from the entire run-block apparatus (tight ends and receivers). That area has not been sharp so far this season. It felt like because of the Patriots' success with their backs in the divisional game last season, they purposely went away from them this time.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
Drops from Dwayne Allen (0 for 5 on targeted passes to this point) and Chris Hogan and a fumble out of bounds by Gronkowski were among the few minor miscues from this group. Of course, the obvious plays more than made up for those. Cooks’ 44-yard catch, and game-winning touchdown were outstanding. Gronkowski, Amendola and Jacob Hollister each game up with huge, contested catches, and Hogan continued to be a valued target with two touchdowns. On his second touchdown, we might have seen some of the affect that Cooks has on a defense, as the safety bailed toward Cooks very earlier. I said on the video that I thought this was a designer play by Josh McDaniels, because I haven't seen that route combination previously from the Patriots. Actually, the truth is even better: Belichick said McDaniels drew it up on the fly.
This group is going to get better as the season goes along, especially Cooks. Below is an example of a play that initially looked like a poor pass from Brady. In the end, Cooks didn’t quite run it as Brady expects.
Offensive line (0.5 out of 5)
In a word, yikes. I mean, 52.3 percent pressure allowed? Look, I get it, the Texans are really good up front. For the first time, the Patriots had to face a healthy trio of J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus, and it wasn't pretty. Watt and Clowney combined for 3.5 sacks, 3 hits, 10 hurries and 4 stuffed runs. ... It was significant that offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia chose LaAdrian Waddle to start at right tackle over Cam Fleming. That fits with their competition in camp: Waddle was better overall but an injury derailed him near the end. It makes you wonder how long they'll keep Fleming. Considering that he's a backup, Waddle fared about as expected, and you wonder how much better Marcus Cannon would have been considering his start to the season. ... David Andrews obviously learned his lessons from the playoff game, because he was much better all-around. The Patriots did, however, help him immensely by having a much better plan (a lot of help) when Mercilus lined up over the center. ... The most glaring issue with this unit outside of Nate Solder (he's obviously dealing with something we'll never hear about) is the left side of the line just hasn't been good enough to this point. Both Solder and Thuney have regressed. Thuney should be better in his second season, but his pad level in the running game has been especially weak. When they ask him to pull, it's even worse. ... You could make the argument that outside of Shaq Mason (best player again), no one has shown improvement in this group from last season, if they haven't regressed.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2.5 out of 5)
The ultimate grade for this group depends on what the gameplan was against Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. If the Patriots were under orders to make Watson beat them from the pocket, they failed miserably. Time and time again they opened up creases where Watson could either run (eight carries for 41 yards) or pass, and the Patriots had no answers. In years past, with more veteran players, you could count the Patriots to wall up against a mobile QB and not let him beat them with his legs. This is a young (Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise) and new (Lawrence Guy) group, but that's no excuse. The Patriots need to coach it better. ... If the Chiefs game (terrible) and Saints game (good) were the two extremes for this group, this one was decidedly in the middle. The pressure percentage, led by Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise, was good, even though Watson brought on a lot himself. The integrity of the run defense was poor and could have been further exploited by the Texans, who seemed to be targeting the undersized Butler more as the game went along (this is something to watch going forward). Butler and Guy each had gap issues at time in this game. ... Give Alan Branch credit -- he may just be a part-time player now with a snap percentage of 30 (after getting a contract extension), but he made a huge play with the game on the line:
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
Looks like we can all relax: the Great Jordan Richards Experiment of 2017 seems to (mercifully) be over, since we haven't seen it since Week 1. The Patriots appear to have settled into a unit of Elandon Roberts (Mike), Kyle Van Noy (Will) and Cassius Marsh (strong) when they need a more traditional 4-3 lineup. Of course, this all depends on where Hightower plays once he returns from injury. Wouldn't be surprised if he takes Roberts' spot at the Mike. That seems to be their best lineup. Roberts and Van Noy were both subpar in this game. Both had a couple of standout plays, but there are two many false steps and either Roberts running late to the wrong place, or Van Noy getting pushed around. ... Marsh (four plus plays, zero negative), however, was a breath of fresh air and seems to be getting more acclimated to the defense.
Secondary (1.5 out of 5)
Another yikes. In order of performance from best to worst: Malcolm Butler, Duron Harmon, (huge gap) Jonathan Jones, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore, the 13 Million Dollar Man, had two penalties, played three passes poorly and missed a portion of the game with dehydration. McCourty allowed 1.5 touchdowns, although the one to Ryan Griffin was just a really good throw and catch. However, McCourty was bailed out by Watson on another sure touchdown:
It wasn't just man coverage where McCourty struggled. He's also had issues as the lone deep safety where, in previous years, he was among the league's best. Watch him on this touchdown to Bruce Ellington:
Chung also had his problems, including getting lost on another scramble play that allowed Watson to throw all the way back across the field. It was almost a carbon copy of the Russell Wilson play a year ago before halftime.
THREE UP
Tom Brady: Just when you think he can't do anything more to amaze, he finds a way.
Rob Gronkowski: Back to being the go-to guy, and doesn't look like he's going on IR everytime he gets tackled.
Trey Flowers/Deatrich Wise: The pressure they generate (and they're about it in that department) is crucial every week.
THREE DOWN
Nate Solder: The worst offender in a group that gave up unprecedented pressure on Brady.
Devin McCourty/Patrick Chung: The safety play hasn't been anywhere near where it needs to be from these two.
Stephon Gilmore: The interception was a gift. Finally got into the tackle game but two big and dumb penalties and too-lax pass coverage isn't cutting it for $13 million a season.