Tracking the Patriots incentives after Week 2

A team's adjusted cap consists of three numbers

1.) League Cap Number
2.) Prior Year Carryover
3.) Adjustments for Likely To Be Earned (LTBE)/Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives
In 2017 the Patriots were debited a total of $231,847 against their 2017 adjusted cap number because of LTBE/NTLBE calculations.

The 2017 Patriots adjusted cap of $167,560,488 consists of $167,000,000 (League cap) plus $5,292,335 (rollover amount from 2016 season) minus $231,847 (LTBE/NTLE adjustment) and minus $4,500,000 (Payback of 2012/2013 borrowed cap space).

In an attempt to give you the most accurate projections of the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number and 2018 salary cap space number, I will track the Patriots 2017 incentives. What has happened in the past is that other projections of the Patriots' cap space ignore the impact of incentives. Remember the 2015 offseason? Some were focusing on the $5,258,054 the Patriots had carried over from the 2014, all while neglecting that several Patriots, most notably Vince Wilfork, had earned NLTBE incentives to help the Patriots win their fourth Super Bowl.



Background:

LTBE incentives count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned. All but 1 (46-man active roster) NLTBE bonuses do not.

Earned LTBE incentives: Since they already count against current year's cap, earning LTBE incentives will not change the player's cap number.
Unearned LTBE incentives: When a player does not earn a LTBE incentive, his team will then receive a credit on next years' cap.
Earned NTLBE incentives: Forty-six man active roster bonuses count against current year's cap. All other earned NLBTE incentives count as a debit against next year's cap.
Unearned NLTBE incentives: When a player does not earn a NLTBE incentive, it has no impact on current year's cap or on next year's cap since the incentive was not counting against the team's salary cap.

At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs incentives that weren’t earned. Said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBE incentives are greater than the earned NLTBE incentives, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount.

Similarly, if the earned NLTBE incentives exceed the unearned LTBE incentives, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at NFLPlayers.Com. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2014 than they did not earn LBTE incentives.

As far as I know, all of the below Patriots incentives have to be earned during the regular season. That is, any postseason stats will not count. Please note that the incentives are typically paid out the following February. The player's contract specifies the actual date. (For example, I know that one player will be paid on Feb. 15, 2018 if he earns his 2017 incentives.)

I will first tackle the LTBE incentives that are currently counting on the Patriots 2017 salary cap.

* Matthew Slater has a $200,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Unlikely since Slater has already missed two games
* Alan Branch's weight bonus - $400,000 - Probable since Branch earned it last year
* Marcus Cannon's weight bonus - $100,000 - Probable since Cannon earned it last year
* Patrick Chung's 65 percent playing-time incentive - $200,000 - Probable since Chung has played in 81.2 percent of the snaps.
* Patrick Chung's 75 percent playing-time incentive - $400,000 - Probable since Chung has played in 81.2 percent of the snaps.
* Patrick Chung's 80 percent playing-time incentive and 13 regular-season wins - $300,000 - Probable since Chung has played in 81.2 percent of the snaps so far this year and the Patriots are likely to win 13 games.
* Patrick Chung's 80 percent playing-time incentive and Super Bowl appearance - $300,000 - Probable since Chung has played in 81.2 percent of the snaps so far this year and the Patriots are likely to win the AFC.
* Patrick Chung's 85 percent playing-time incentive - $500,000 - Possible since Chung has played in 81.2 percent of the snap so far this year and the Patriots are likely to win 13 games.
* Dont'a Hightower's 65 percent playing-time incentive - $375,000 - Possible since Hightower can average 72 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive.
* Dont'a Hightower's 70 percent playing-time incentive - $250,000 - Unlikely since Hightower would have to average 78 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 31 percent.
* Dont'a Hightower's 75 percent playing-time incentive - $250,000 - Unlikely since Hightower would have to average 82 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 31 percent.
* James Develin's 20 percent playing-time incentive - $100,000 - Probable since Develin has played in 27.4 percent of the snaps.
* James Develin's 30 percent playing-time incentive - $100,000 - Probable since Develin has played in 27.4 percent of the snaps.
* David Harris' 60 percent playing-time incentive - $250,000 - Unlikely since Harris would have to average 69 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in three percent.
* David Harris' 80 percent playing-time incentive - $500,000 - Unlikely since Harris would have to average 91 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in  three percent.
* Alan Branch's 50 percent playing-time incentive - $125,000 - Possible since Branch would have to average 52 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 36 percent this year, 60 percent in 2016.
* Alan Branch's 55 percent playing-time incentive - $375,000 - Possible but unlikely since Branch would have to average 58 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 42 percent this year, 60 percent in 2016.
* Alan Branch's 60 percent playing-time incentive - $375,000 - Possible but unlikely since Branch would have to average 64 percent of the snaps the rest of the year to earn this incentive. Has played in 42 percent this year, 60 percent in 2016.
* Julian Edelman's $500,000 incentive that could have been earned in one of the following four ways:
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance - Impossible since Edelman is now on IR with no chance to play in 2017.

Summary

Impossible - $500,000
Unlikely - $1,200,000
Possible - $1,625,000
Probable - $2,275,000
Total - $5,600,000

So we add the amounts for the unlikely and impossible events and we get a total of $1,700,000 that will be credited to the Patriots 2018 cap.

I will now estimate the chances of the NLTBE incentives being earned. Please note these estimates will probably change greatly throughout the season as there are injuries and roster changes.

* Ryan Allen has a $50,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Possible but unlikely
* Nate Solder has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Possible but unlikely
* Nate Ebner has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Possible but unlikely
* Shea McClellin has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Impossible as McClellin is on IR.
* Johnson Bademosi has a $300,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Possible
* Dont'a Hightower has a $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive - Unlikely
* Dont'a Hightower has a $500,000 All-Pro incentive - Unlikely
* Johnson Bademosi has a $400,000 incentive for four interceptions - Unlikely since Bademosi has not played a snap on defense
* Johnson Bademosi's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 35 percent of the defensive snaps - Unlikely since Bademosi has not played a snap on defense
* Johnson Bademosi's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the defensive snaps - Unlikely since Bademosi has not played a snap on defense
* LaAdrian Waddle's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 40 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Waddle has played in five percent of the offensive snaps
* LaAdrian Waddle's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Waddle has played in five percent of the offensive snaps
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive - $200,000 if he plays in 40 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Lewis has played in 13 percent of the offensive snaps
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive - $300,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Lewis has played in 13 percent of the offensive snaps
* Dion Lewis's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the offensive snaps - Unlikely since Lewis has played in 13 percent of the offensive snaps
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 50 percent of the defensive snaps - Probable since Guy has played in 42 percent of the defensive snaps
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive - $400,000 if he plays in 55 percent of the defensive snaps - Possible since Guy has played in 42 percent of the defensive snaps
* Lawrence Guy's playing time incentive - $500,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the defensive snaps - Possible but unlikely since Guy has played in 42 percent of the defensive snaps
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive - $250,000 if he plays in 60 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive - $250,000 if he plays in 70 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Duron Harmon's playing time incentive - $250,000 if he plays in 80 percent of the defensive snaps.
* Alan Branch's 65 percent playing time incentive - $375,000 - Possible but unlikely since Branch has played in 42 percent of the defensive snaps
* Dont'a Hightower's 80 percent playing time incentive - $125,000 - Possible but unlikely since Hightower has played in 31 percent of the defensive snaps
* Shea McClellin's 60 percent playing time incentive - $250,000 - Impossible since McClellin is on IR.
* Shea McClellin's 70 percent playing time incentive - $250,000 - Impossible since McClellin is on IR.

* Gronkowski's $1,000,000 incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways
1.) 70 percent playing-time
2.) Scores 10 touchdowns
3.) catches 60 passes
4.) has 800 receiving yards - Probable since Gronk is on pace for 1,200 receiving yards, 64 receptions and 79 percent playing time.

* Gronkowski's $3,000,000 incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways
1.) 80 percent playing-time
2.) Scores 12 touchdowns
3.) catches 70 passes
4.) has 1,000 receiving yards - Probable since Gronk is on pace for 1,200 receiving yards and 79% playing time.

* Gronkowski's $5,500,000 incentive that can be earned in one of the following five ways
1.) 90 percent playing-time
2.) Scores 14 touchdowns
3.) catches 80 passes
4.) has 1,200 receiving yards
5.) named first-team All-Pro - Probable since Gronk is on pace for 1,200 receiving yards and an All-Pro nomination.

Summary

Impossible - $2,275,000
Unlikely - $2,575,000
Possible - $2,050,000
Probable - $6,650,000
Total - $13,550,000

So just using the amount for the probable events we get $6,650,000 that will be debited against the Patriots 2018 cap.

Please note the unearned LTBE incentives will not be the only credits coming to the Patriots 2018 salary cap. They will also get a $750,000 credit for the 16 46-man active roster bonuses that Julian Edelman will not earn by being on IR. The Patriots will also get at the very minimum a $150,000 for Shea McClellin who is also on IR. McClellin who has a $25,000 46-man active roster bonus was active for 14 games in 2016 and will be active at most for 8 games. The Patriots will also receive a credit ($45,000 total) for the salaries that they guaranteed in 2017 and that were offset by the player earning cash in 2017. The affected players are:
Austin Carr - $22,500
Cody Hollister - $10,000
Jason King - $5,000
David Jones - $5,000
Kenny Moore - $2,500

Credits
Unearned LTBE incentives - $1,700,000
Unearned LTBE 46-man active roster bonuses (Edelman and McClellin) - $900,000
Guaranteed Salary Offset Credit - $45,000
Total Credits - $2,645,000

The $2,645,000 credit amount minus $6,650,000 in debits leads to a negative adjustment of $4,005,000. I am going to use 4 million the rest of the way for the sake of simplicity.

The $4,000,000 negative adjustment will be included in the Patriots 2018 adjusted salary cap number calculation as a debit. If 2018 League Cap is $180 million, the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number would then be $176,000,000 before including the 2017 rollover amount. I currently project that the 2016 rollover amount will be $3,000,000. So my current projection for the Patriots 2018 adjusted cap number is $179,000,000 (League Cap of $180 million plus $3,000,000 rollover minus $4,000,000 adjustment.

Using all of the above projections which will change frequently between now and the start of the 2018 League Year on March 14th here is my current estimate for the Patriots 2018 cap space number.

League Cap - $180,000,000
Prior Year Carryover - $3,000,000
Adjustment - ($4,000,000)
Patriots Adjusted Cap - $179,000,000
2018 Cap Commitment - $161,000,000
After tendering Ted Karras as an ERFA and signing 10 practice squad players the Patriots should have 56 players signed or tendered for the 2018 season.

2018 Cap Space $18,000,000

I will now try to answer some questions that I anticipate that this blog will create:

Q: Your cap space number is currently around $5.2 million. Why do you think that they will end up with $3 million?
A: Expect the Patriots to continue to replace players that are placed on IR. Also expect them to increase their salaries of a couple more practice squad players. As some players, most notably Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski, are active for more games in 2017 than they were in 2016 the Patriots will lose cap space. As of September 22 the Patriots could lose $903,125 in cap space if a dozen players are active for every game the rest of the 2017 season.

Q: How could the Patriots create more cap space?
A: Look for the answer in an upcoming blog

Q: How can injuries change your estimates?
A: Injuries to the three other running backs will increase Dion Lewis' chances of earning his playing-time incentives. The only way that Waddle can earn his playing-time incentive is a plethora of injuries to his fellow offensive tackles.

Q: How would a David Harris removal from roster affect your estimates?
A: If David Harris were no longer on the Patriots 53-man roster via trade or retirement his remaining salary, unearned 46-man active roster and LTBE incentives would come off the Patriots salary cap increasing the Patriots salary cap number and therefore the amount that they would carry over into 2018. If Harris were to be cut, his salary would remain on the Patriots 2017 cap since he is eligible for termination pay.

Q: What would happen to a player's 2018 cap number if he reaches a NLTBE incentive in 2017?
A: I am going to use Duron Harmon as an example. If he continues to average playing 86 percent of the snaps in 2017, he will increase his 2018 cap number by $750,000 because his playing-time incentives would then be considered LTBE since he earned them the previous year.

Q: Can Gronkowski earn $9.5 (1+3+5.5) million in incentives this year?
A: No, the most he can earn is $5.5 million.

Q: What will take to move some of Alan Branch's playing-time incentives from possible but unlikely to just unlikely?
A: A couple of more games with very few snaps.

You can follow me on Twitter at @patscap.