MLB Notebook: Red Sox will be among many bidding for Otani

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- For months it seemed like a pipe dream.  Last week, it became reality: Shohei Otani is coming to a Major League Baseball franchise near you this winter.

Well, maybe not literally near you. But somewhere in North America, and that in and of itself is something of a surprise.

For the uninitiated, Otani is a rare baseball prize, currently playing in Japan. He has the ability to perform as a front-of-the-rotation starter and a middle-of-the-order hitter.

The strange part is, thanks to the timing and something of a glitch in the international free agent system, he’s not going to cost much money.

At 23, Otani is not yet eligible to entertain open bidding for his services the way, say, Rusney Castillo and other international free agents have in the past. Instead, thanks to his age, Otani can only be paid out of each team’s international signing bonus pools, an amount capped by Major League Baseball.

First, Otani will go through the posting system, where each interested team will agree to pay his Japanese team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, the standard posting fee. Currently, this sits at $20 million, though a new number could be negotiated between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball.

Then, Otani will be free to choose from any club which has agreed to post the fee. The signing bonuses he has to select from won’t vary greatly. They’ll likely range from somewhere between $5 million to $10 million.

Teams are signed bonus pool money based on market size and other factors. Clubs are also allowed to trade for additional international pool money, something the Red Sox have done.

A league source indicated that the Red Sox current bonus pool money is in the neighborhood of $7.25 million. If the Sox wish, they could offer that entire sum to Otani, though that would preclude them from signing any other international free agents between now and next July.

Otani would then agree to a minor league contract, have his contract purchased by the corresponding major league club and begin earning a major league minimum salary (about $545,000 for 2018), just as a player who came up through the minors would.

After three years, he would be eligible for salary arbitration and after six years, unrestricted free agency.
It’s known that the Red Sox were one of about 15 teams who sent scouts to Japan to watch Otani pitch last month.
They’ve also monitored him in the past and have extensive scouting reports on him.

One major league talent evaluator who has seen Otani pitch recently compared his body to Yu Darvish, and his stuff to the Yankees’ Luis Severino. Otani, though, has better velocity than Severino, having been clocked as high as 102 mph with his fastball.

The real intrigue – as if a top-flight starter at 23 with minimal salary cost isn’t already intriguing – is his desire to be a two-way player. Otani wishes to hit in addition to pitch, which would seem to give an advantage to American League teams who could offer him the chance to DH.

(It’s unlikely that a National League club would want Otani playing a position in the field on days he isn’t pitching, for fear that their investment in him as a pitcher would be at risk).

Some observers expect that Otani may seek the biggest market – i.e. either New York or Los Angeles – to maximize his earning potential internationally.

If that is indeed, a goal, the Red Sox will be dealing from a distinct disadvantage since while Boston is an internationally viable city, it can’t offer the commercial opportunities of a New York or L.A. Nor can it boast of a particularly large Asian population base, as is the case with the Bay Area or Seattle.

What Boston can offer, however, is the experience of having already had a sizeable Japanese star (Daisuke Matsuzaka). Additionally, the Sox will attempt to market their franchise history and tradition and their recent history of being playoff contenders nearly every year, along with three World Series titles in the last 14 seasons.
******

The Red Sox will represent an interesting experiment in the post-season: namely, can a team without much home run power have success in the playoffs?

Even Dave Dombrowski, the team’s president of baseball operations, isn’t sure of the answer.

Dombrowski acknowledged that most of the teams he’s had reach October have all had more long ball capability – from the Marlins in the late 1990s to the Tigers teams he put together to last year’s Red Sox club.

But the 2017 Sox are dead last in homers and, with leading home run hitter Hanley Ramirez (22) currently sidelined, are likely to finish the season without any hitters reaching the 25-homer mark.

“You don’t see a lot of home runs in the post-season (to begin with) because you’re facing really good pitching,’’ said Dombrowski, “and the ability to hit home runs off that good pitching is not easy. There are always exceptions to that. I think if you’re a power-laden team that’s dependent on homers, then you don’t do other things; that just how your offense is.  That’s probably a tough recipe for the post-season.

“Whereas if you have a more athletic club that makes contact and makes things happen, in general, you’re more apt to keep your offense going because you can still put the ball in play, use your speed and make things happen.’’

Recent evidence supports Dombrowski’s claim. As noted by Sports Illustrated recently, none of the last seven World Series winners finished in the Top 5 in baseball in homers, with the Kansas City Royals – losers in 2014, winners in 2015 – acting as the poster child for a more balanced offensive approach.

But there’s a problem with Dombrowski’s theory, too, for the fact that even though it may be true that it’s tough to hit homers off elite pitching, it’s also tougher to string together three or more consecutive hits to generate runs as part of a rally.

What’s more likely? That a front-line starter could miss with a pitch and have it hit out of the ballpark with a man on, or a scenario where that same pitcher allows three or four hits in the same inning, also producing multiple runs?

“That’s true’’ agreed Dombrowski.  “I can’t say that it’s not. Put it this way: in my experience, it doesn’t happen that way. But it does happen, sure.’’

Either way, it will be fascinating to watch it unfold.  And the Red Sox’ success in October may hinge on whether their offense can figure out a way to overcome the lack of home run power.
*******

Rhode Island native – and, briefly, Red Sox outfielder – Rocco Baldelli could serve as a cautionary tale for Mookie Betts.

Betts and his representatives turned down a five-year, $100 million contract extension offer from the Red Sox last spring, with Betts later telling Boston Sports Journal that, at this stage of his career, he’d prefer to go year-to-year. Under that scenario, Betts can gain significant raises through the arbitration process, then qualify for free agency after the 2020 season.

That’s his right, of course, and if Betts continues on his current path and remains healthy, the strategy may well prove to be the correct one.

But Baldelli stands as an example of what can go wrong. Like Betts, Baldelli was an athletic outfielder with a seemingly limitless future.  He rejected an extension from the Rays, only to experience a series of injuries – first a knee, then an elbow, and finally, a diagnosis of mitochondrial channelopathy, a neurological condition that causes severe muscle fatigue.

Baldelli later agreed to a multi-year deal from the Rays, but, with his injury history and condition, it was for a shorter term and far less money than originally offered.

“I think every player has to feel comfortable with the decision he makes,’’ said Baldelli. “At the end of the day, it’s the player who has to feel good when he goes to bed at night with the decision that he makes. Some players want stability and security and that makes them feel good at the end of the day. That player might not make the most money that he could have made, but he makes a nice living and at no point will he have to worry about security.

“Other players are very comfortable taking advice from other people and going year-to-year. If it works out, that’s fantastic. And if it doesn’t work out, you have to be OK with that. When you’re a really good player, it’s probably going to work out OK for you either way. But I experienced the downside, going through it and thinking everything’s going to work out smoothly and it didn’t. That’s something I live with everyday and it’s not necessarily something I worry about too much.

“You just have to be comfortable with the decisions you make. These are not very straightforward decisions. You’re getting advice from all sides – the team, your agent, the union, family, friends – and you just have to decide what’s most important to you. There’s no playbook for this sort of thing.’’
*******

There was an interesting on-field exchange between Kevin Kiermaier and Jackie Bradley Jr. Friday night. The two players – arguably the two best center fielders in the business – crossed paths while a replay challenge was underway.

Kiermaier kiddingly told Bradley that a spectacular catch he made on him an inning before was merely payback for an amazing grab Bradley had made on a ball hit by Kiermaier last week when the Rays and Sox played at Fenway.

“I’m going to have to get even (with him),’’ Bradley said after the game.

The NFL “mics up’’ its players and later uses the audio from sidelines and on-field to illustrate the players’ personalities and bring fans closer to the game. What a shame that MLB doesn’t do the same.