NFL Notebook: Over/under scenarios for 2017

Based on what we’ve seen to this point on the calendar, here are a dozen over/under scenarios involving the Patriots and the 2017 regular season. Take a look at what we came up with and feel free to offer your opinion in the comments below.



1. Rob Gronkowski: 80 catches — As always, this comes with the disclaimer “if he stays healthy.” He remains the No. 1 option in the passing game, and is the lead sentence in any discussion involving New England’s offensive skill position players. (Maybe the most amazing thing about last year? How the Patriots managed to win it all with him on the sidelines down the stretch and into the playoffs.) Our take: Just over, provided he plays between 14 and 16 regular-season games.

2. Julian Edelman: 82.5 catches — Edelman has had 90-plus catches three of the last four years, but we’re aiming a little lower here for a couple of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that Brandin Cooks and a whole host of running backs will eat (slightly) into those opportunities. But like Gronkowski, if he stays healthy for the year, Edelman will again be at or near the top of the league when it comes to receptions. Our take: Just over.

3. Brandin Cooks: 75 catches — Even though he’s faster than Deion Branch when it comes to his straight-line speed, we still think that he’s more Branch than Randy Moss because of his versatility as an intermediate and deep threat. That means that while he won’t get the same volume of targets of the likes of Gronkowski or Edelman, his production will come in chunk plays, as detailed here by Greg. Basically, he won’t catch as many balls as either of those two others, but when it comes to the receptions he will get, the “wow” factor will be off the charts. Our take: Under. (For what it’s worth, he’s our pick to lead the team in yards per catch.)

4. Mike Gillislee: 775 rushing yards — There’s no real way of knowing what Gillislee’s ceiling in the New England offense to this point because he’s been on the field so infrequently over the last couple of weeks. With that being the case, we’ll set a modest series of expectations for him for a few reasons, including the fact that with Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis and James White, the Patriots appear headed for something of a backfield by committee this season. Our take: Under.

5. Tom Brady: 31.5 touchdown passes, 7.5 interceptions — We arrived at this series of numbers by examining his last five seasons, where he’s averaged 31 touchdowns and seven picks (that includes his 12 regular-season games last year). Despite the fact that he just turned 40, he has the most complete series of pass catchers around him since 2007. Provided the offensive line holds up, he’ll see a spike in his average overall production. Our take: Over.

6. Trey Flowers: 7.5 sacks — Flowers really came on down the stretch in 2016, and appears poised to have something of a breakout season. And while we’re confident someone will emerge as a complementary pass rusher on this roster, Flowers’ strength, speed and versatility make him the best pass rushing threat on the team right now. Our take: Just over.

7. Malcolm Butler: 2.5 interceptions — This feels a little low, and we might get burned as a result. But Butler and Stephon Gilmore (and the safeties) have the potential to be a special secondary, so much so that quarterbacks might have to try and spread the ball around and go away from Butler. Our take: As a result, we'll take the under.

8. Points per game scored: 29.5 — The Patriots averaged 27.6 points per game last season, and they improved the offense in the offseason. (For what it’s worth, if New England does hit 29.5 points per game this year, it would represent the Patriots highest per game output since 2012, when they averaged 34.8 points per game.) Our take: They'll improve those totals slightly from last season, but still fall short of 30 points per game. Under.

9. Points per game allowed: 17.5 — Last year’s team was really good, yielding an average of 15.6 points per game, the best in the league. Not sure the defense will be able to hit that mark again in 2017, but they’ll keep it close. Our take: Over.

10. Turnover ratio: Plus-10.5 — The Patriots were at plus-12, plus-7 and plus-12 the last three seasons, so this feels about right. Our take: With the addition of Gilmore and a dynamic group of safeties, we’ll go just barely over.

11. Offensive pass interference penalties on Gronkowski: 3.5 — Whether it was a difference in the way he played or how the games were called, the big tight end saw a dramatic drop on OPI flags. Not counting penalties that were declined or offset, he went from six in the 2015 regular season to none last year. We think this year might see him land somewhere in the middle. Our take: Slightly under.

12. Regular-season wins: 13.5 — There’s been plenty of undefeated talk, but in this day and age, that seems to be a long shot. But they’re automatically on the short list of genuine Super Bowl contenders, which means they should be able to at least match last year’s regular-season win total. Our take: Just barely over.