Few players in the NBA have had a tougher year than Isaiah Thomas. The 29-year-old point guard battled through hip problems during the final few months of his last season with the Celtics. Nearly one year later, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic surgery on the injury after several months of rest and rehabilitation did not fully heal the issue. The Lakers announced a four-month timetable for Thomas to recover from the procedure.
The surgery caps a nightmare contract year for the point guard. After sitting out the first three months of the season to rehab, Thomas was never close to playing like the elite scorer that made him an MVP candidate last year with the Celtics. After a disastrous stint with the Cavs, Thomas averaged a respectable 15.6 points and 5.0 assists per game in 17 games for the Lakers before shutting things down. However, his efficiency numbers over that span weren’t all that encouraging. The two-time All-Star shot just 37.3 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point range, both of which were career-lows for him. His turnover rate was also at a career-worst, and his free throw rate plummeted. All of these stats showcased his limited explosiveness as the hip injury continued to hamper him.
At this point, there's no real sense in debating whether or not Thomas should have waited this long to get surgery. However, the seven-year veteran has been dealt an extremely tough hand as he heads into unrestricted free agency this summer. Needless to say, Thomas’ dreams of a max contract (dreams that may never have been realistic to begin with) are long gone. Now, with a backdrop of surgery, a potentially chronic injury and the worst season of his career, the point guard will be facing a tough market in free agency. What kind of contract is realistic for the Laker and will he have many suitors? Let’s take a closer look at the landscape to figure out how Thomas might play it.
Best Case Scenario for Thomas: Lakers strike out in free agency, opening up cap room to use
The one break Thomas did get this year was being dealt to the Lakers at the trade deadline as part of a four-player deal (Thomas, Channing Frye and a 2019 first-round pick for Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr.).
Thomas and Frye were essentially valued as dead money/expiring contracts in the transaction, which helped the Lakers to clean up their cap sheet. Clarkson’s $12-million salary was taken off the books for next year, and the Lakers got some value for Nance (first-round pick). Thomas and Frye were just included to make the money match for both sides.
However, the moves freed up money for the Lakers to spend this summer. They only have $39.1 million committed in salary to eight players for the 2018-19 season, putting them in prime position to open up the necessary cap space to sign two max free agents this summer. We all know the names they will be after (LeBron James, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins) in such a scenario. If they land a duo, Thomas is likely done in LA. The Lakers would need to renounce all their free agents with Bird Rights (Thomas, Brook Lopez, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Julius Randle) to create the necessary space for two max slots.
Alternatively, if the Lakers manage to sign just one big name or strike out entirely, Thomas is in a far better spot. Since the Lakers would still have his Bird Rights, they would have the ability to pay him any number on a one-year deal, something Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com reported they would be interested in doing this past week. Caldwell-Pope benefitted from that situation this past year when the Lakers overpaid him on a one-year deal for $17.7 million.
If Thomas had remained in Cleveland, getting retained would have been a long shot. Not only were there chemistry issues, but the Cavs have severe luxury tax penalties awaiting them next year with the repeater tax. They probably wouldn’t have gambled with a player like Thomas with so many question marks looming about his health, since their budget was going to be tight as it was.
In LA, Thomas can serve as a one-year filler contract if no big names take the bait and sign with the Lakers. He still has a strong following (which matters in a place like LA), and the team will still need to spend tens of millions to get to salary cap floor. If he’s willing to accept a secondary role (something he won’t really be in business to negotiate after this latest surgery), a return to LA could make sense for both parties. Thomas gets to play on a prove-it deal and the Lakers maintain long-term flexibility (with some salary filler in Thomas for potential trades).
Worst Case Scenario for Thomas: Lakers sign max free agents or move in another direction
With few teams across the league expected to have significant room under the salary cap this summer, the market for most non-max free agent players will not be ideal. Outside of Chris Paul, it’s a pretty weak free-agent class of point guards (Tony Parker, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Rajon Rondo). However, the point guard position is still deep across the league. Most squads are set at the position or are in the process of developing young talent there. Here’s a look at what the depth chart looks like in most spots:
Teams “set” at point guard in 2018-19: Boston (Kyrie Irving), Charlotte (Kemba Walker), Detroit (Reggie Jackson), Golden State (Curry), Houston (Chris Paul), Memphis (Mike Conley), Miami (Goran Dragic), Minnesota (Jeff Teague), New Orleans (Jrue Holiday), Oklahoma City (Russell Westbrook), Philadelphia (Markelle Fultz/Ben Simmons), Portland (Damian Lillard), Sacramento (De’Aaron Fox), Toronto (Kyle Lowry), Washington (John Wall), Utah (Ricky Rubio)
Teams that could use a point guard, but are rebuilding and/or have young talent at point guard already: Atlanta (Dennis Schroder), Brooklyn (D’Angelo Russell/Jeremy Lin), Chicago (Kris Dunn), Dallas (Dennis Smith Jr.), Denver (Jamal Murray), Indiana (Victor Oladipo), LA Lakers (Lonzo Ball), Milwaukee (Malcolm Brogdon/Eric Bledsoe), Phoenix (Elfrid Payton/Brandon Knight/Tyler Ulis)
Teams that could use an upgrade at point guard but probably won’t have cap room this summer: Cleveland (George Hill), LA Clippers (Milos Tedonsic)
With only seven teams projected to have salary cap space, it is going to be a buyer’s market out there, which should keep the price down for a player like Thomas. The Lakers may have their pick of the litter if they end up chasing players on one-year deals, since a lot of non-max free agents won’t have much of a market above the mid-level exception ($8.5 million). Four of the seven teams with salary cap space projected above $10 million (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Chicago, Sacramento) are not expected to be competitive next year, so adding a veteran player like Thomas for $10 million or more won’t be a priority.
If enough veterans get squeezed out of lucrative multi-year deals on the market, they could look to the Lakers for a one-year payday since that would allow them to hit free agency again when more cap space opens up in the summer of 2019. Thomas may have more upside than some other mid-level names (Avery Bradley, Derrick Favors, etc.) that will be out on market, but he won’t be in a position to bargain too hard on the salary front with alternatives available.
There’s also going to be the issue of finding a smart landing spot for Thomas. Needless to say, finding any team willing to give Thomas a starting role is going to be hard to come by. Franchises aren’t going to prioritize a 29-year-old with injury concerns over a young player on a rebuilding squad. So which front offices with cap space might be intrigued by Thomas? A few possibilities:
Dallas: If they want to get competitive around Dirk one more time, Thomas could be a buy-low investment. However, the presence of Dennis Smith Jr. and J.J. Barea makes Thomas a tough fit for the rotation.
Sacramento: They have no reason to tank next year (2019 pick is going to Boston) and could be looking to cause some buzz around an otherwise uninspiring roster. Not sure I could see both sides swallowing their pride and getting a deal done here, but both also could be in desperate situations.
Indiana: It’s Victor Oladipo’s team, but Thomas would fit their run-and-gun style as a sixth man. Depending on what happens with contracts for Darren Collison and Cory Joseph, the Pacers could have some money to spend a hole at backup point guard.
Final Thoughts
The timing can’t be much worse for Thomas right now to hit the open market. He is only going to be offered a short-term deal based on his injury situation and age in all likelihood, and it’s going to be up to him to prove he remains worthy of more as he creeps into his 30s. Based on the extension Lou Williams signed with the Clippers ($7 million annually through 2020) it’s hard to envision Thomas getting more than that, even on a one-year deal. The Lakers are the only team that might be willing to overpay him beyond that to keep him happy playing behind Ball. Otherwise, Thomas is looking at mid-level exception money on a team that’s willing to gamble.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Kawhi Leonard is reportedly back in New York to visit his own doctors as he tries to find a solution for his right quad injury per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. He still has no return timetable to get back to the floor after missing 60-plus games this year. Outside of LeBron James’ free agency, Leonard’s future with the Spurs is the biggest league storyline to watch this summer. He has one year left on his deal.
- Congrats to former Celtics Ray Allen, Dino Radja and Charlie Scott, who were all announced as members of the 2018 Basketball Hall of Fame class this weekend.
- John Wall looked sharp on Saturday afternoon in his return to the floor after a two-month absence following his knee debridement surgery. Washington holds just a half-game lead over the Bucks and Heat for the sixth seed, but their odds of holding off those squads looks better now that he’s back.
- Ty Lue is back with the Cavs in a non-coaching capacity for now, but he is hoping to return to the bench as soon as next week after taking a week off for health reasons.